On 06/05/2023 06:14, Brian wrote:
The problem is the first part- collecting voting intentions, allowing for
last minute changes, people giving misleading answers, voting fraud, …….
Surely you only need voting intentions before the bets come in. Once
you have bets coming in, I would have thought the odds would change
based on which way the bets were going, so reflect the punters' view of
the likely result rather than the real best estimate.
I would have thought the only time the bookie was at great risk was if a large, high odds, bet came in late in the process. I don't know whether
odds are an invitation to treat or a quotation, or whether bookies can
refuse large high odds bets.
On 06/05/2023 06:14, Brian wrote:
The problem is the first part- collecting voting intentions, allowing for
last minute changes, people giving misleading answers, voting fraud, …….
Surely you only need voting intentions before the bets come in. Once
you have bets coming in, I would have thought the odds would change
based on which way the bets were going, so reflect the punters' view of
the likely result rather than the real best estimate.
I would have thought the only time the bookie was at great risk was if a large, high odds, bet came in late in the process. I don't know whether
odds are an invitation to treat or a quotation, or whether bookies can
refuse large high odds bets.
And given that Starmer is so enthustiastically
kicking the previous left leaders like Corbyn
and Abbott right out of the party, it remains to
be seen what Labour voters will make of that.
On 06/05/2023 14:21, David Woolley wrote:
On 06/05/2023 06:14, Brian wrote:
The problem is the first part- collecting voting intentions, allowingSurely you only need voting intentions before the bets come in. Once
for
last minute changes, people giving misleading answers, voting fraud,
…….
you have bets coming in, I would have thought the odds would change
based on which way the bets were going, so reflect the punters' view of
the likely result rather than the real best estimate.
I would have thought the only time the bookie was at great risk was if
a large, high odds, bet came in late in the process. I don't know
whether odds are an invitation to treat or a quotation, or whether
bookies can refuse large high odds bets.
The problem, at least for some on here, with accepting that the bookies
(or pollsters) know what they are doing is that would mean having to
accept the possibility that the Conservatives won't be in power for ever.
Rod Speed wrote
And given that Starmer is so enthustiastically
kicking the previous left leaders like Corbyn
and Abbott right out of the party, it remains to
be seen what Labour voters will make of that.
And not just Labour, for the Conservatives are equally at fault.
Political parties are a conglomeration of large numbers
of people with differing views and to remove the whip from,
or to expel from the party, those whose views do not tally
with the opinions of the leaders is to run your party
as the Russians, for example, conduct their affairs.
The problem, at least for some on here, with accepting that the
bookies (or pollsters) know what they are doing is that would mean
having to accept the possibility that the Conservatives won't be in
power for ever.
On Sat, 6 May 2023 15:30:29 +0100
Colin Bignell <cpb@bignellREMOVETHIS.me.uk> wrote:
The problem, at least for some on here, with accepting that the
bookies (or pollsters) know what they are doing is that would mean
having to accept the possibility that the Conservatives won't be in
power for ever.
"Be sure to keep a hold of nurse, for fear of finding something worse"
On 6 May 2023 at 19:27:25 BST, "Brian Morrison" <news@fenrir.org.uk>
wrote:
On Sat, 6 May 2023 15:30:29 +0100
Colin Bignell <cpb@bignellREMOVETHIS.me.uk> wrote:
The problem, at least for some on here, with accepting that the
bookies (or pollsters) know what they are doing is that would mean
having to accept the possibility that the Conservatives won't be in
power for ever.
"Be sure to keep a hold of nurse, for fear of finding something worse"
You are not comparing the electorate to naive, malleable children are
you? In
which case I have bad news for you; the oligarchs in charge of this
country
have decided to install that nice Mr Starmer next time[1];
do this
when they want to squeeze the middle classes (in terms of pay, interest rates,
and taxes) even more than usual.
Tories, so they prefer a Labour government to do it. E.g. Brown's
destruction
of the private pension system and the later considerable weakening of
public
sector pension benefits. It would not have looked convincing to tell a
Tory to
do this.
[1] I think they would have liked to install Labour in 2019, so
"austerity"
could be deeper, and Brexit less harmful, but there was not a suitable
Labour
leadership available willing to accept bribes, honours, directorships, consultancies, quangoes, and straightforward bribes in return for toeing
the
line. Hence the anti-semitism and anti-Corbyn smear cammpaign was needed
to
"prepare" the Labour Party for its treacherous role.
"Be sure to keep a hold of nurse, for fear of finding something
worse"
You are not comparing the electorate to naive, malleable children are
you?
On 6 May 2023 19:03:26 GMT
Roger Hayter <roger@hayter.org> wrote:
"Be sure to keep a hold of nurse, for fear of finding something
worse"
You are not comparing the electorate to naive, malleable children are
you?
I was actually thinking that we're utterly screwed whatever we do, or
whoever we "choose", but that the act of choosing always makes people
worried about whether their choice is good or not.
Part of the problem is that the choices we are presented with are not
from the top drawer so the playing field is always full of holes and
bald patches.
On 6 May 2023 19:03:26 GMT
Roger Hayter <roger@hayter.org> wrote:
"Be sure to keep a hold of nurse, for fear of finding something
worse"
You are not comparing the electorate to naive, malleable children are
you?
I was actually thinking that we're utterly screwed whatever we do, or
whoever we "choose", but that the act of choosing always makes people
worried about whether their choice is good or not.
Part of the problem is that the choices we are presented with are not
from the top drawer so the playing field is always full of holes and
bald patches.
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