XPost: alt.politics, alt.defense, alt.politics.usa
XPost: alt.elections

https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20240108-%F0%9F%94%B4-live-blinken-due-in-israel-for-tough-talks-as-fears-grow-gaza-conflict-could-engulf-wider-region

Israel on Monday killed a top commander of the Iran-backed
Hezbollah group in a strike on southern Lebanon, adding to
fears of a spillover of the conflict in Gaza. The news came
as US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Monday held his
third day of meetings on an urgent Middle East diplomatic
mission on his fourth tour of the region since Israel's war
on Hamas began.

. . .

This is rapidly getting out of control. Hezbollah seemed
willing to stay out of the Gaza affair - but now two
strikes inside Lebanon are drawing in the more-powerful
foe as well. The first strike was against a Hamas leader,
but today's was directed at the Hezbollah leadership.

Hezbollah did retaliate for the first attack by sending
missiles at an Israeli air base and some other IDF
targets in northern Israel. What it will do now that its
own people have been directly targeted, well, it's not
much of a guess.

Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthi are all Iranian proxies,
and Iran is now a fairly tight Russian/Chinese ally. At
this point it's likely Iran itself is a clandestine
nuclear power.

In Israel, the large cities of Haifa and Tel Aviv are
easily within Hezbollah's range.

So ... what's Israel playing at here ???

It has spent vast quantities of arms blasting Gaza, so
it may not have enough should Hezbollah and friends get
into the fray. While Israel has nukes, a quick look at
a map shows that everything is very close together in
this conflict and fallout would afflict all parties.
Military resources are also rather spread out, so a
big bomb can only reach a fraction.

This leaves two options - a major US/EU military action
on behalf of Israel ... or leave Israel to the wolves.
A dangerous gambit indeed. Ukraine has stressed the US/EU
and frankly I don't think they can AFFORD to send a big
army into the Levant and the USA has become allergic
to "forever wars" like this conflict would become.

SOME in the Israeli govt are "Armageddonists" - actually
eager to cause the Final Conflict because of certain
religious delusions. They had been a weirdo minority, but
now, ya kinda gotta wonder ...

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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