So after agonizing for months about how I will manage to actually boycott this Abomination World Cup, I feel my will power weakening by the day. The football DNA is woven too deep into my molecules.
Based on Elo ratings, these are the toughest GoDs since 1970:
YEAR GROUP TEAMS AVG. ELO
1970 3 England, Brazil, Czechoslovakia, Romania 1959
2014 B Spain, Netherlands, Chile, Australia 1931
1978 3 Brazil, Spain, Austria, Sweden 1923
1974 2 Brazil, Yugoslavia, Scotland, Zaire 1915
1978 1 Italy, Argentina, Hungary, France 1910
2022 G Brazil, Switzerland, Serbia, Cameroon 1901
2014 G Germany, Portugal, United States, Ghana 1896
2002 F Argentina, England, Sweden, Nigeria 1895
1978 4 Netherlands, Scotland, Iran, Peru 1894
1994 E Italy, Ireland, Mexico, Norway 1889
2018 E Brazil, Switzerland, Serbia, Costa Rica 1888
1982 6 Brazil, Soviet Union, Scotland, New Zealand 1885
1986 E West Germany, Denmark, Scotland, Uruguay 1885
2022 E Spain, Germany, Japan, Costa Rica 1885
2018 B Spain, Portugal, Iran, Morocco 1884
Two from 2022 made the cut.
So after agonizing for months about how I will manage to actually boycott this Abomination World Cup, I feel my will power weakening by the day. The football DNA is woven too deep into my molecules.
Based on Elo ratings, these are the toughest GoDs since 1970:
YEAR GROUP TEAMS AVG. ELO
1970 3 England, Brazil, Czechoslovakia, Romania 1959
2014 B Spain, Netherlands, Chile, Australia 1931
1978 3 Brazil, Spain, Austria, Sweden 1923
1974 2 Brazil, Yugoslavia, Scotland, Zaire 1915
1978 1 Italy, Argentina, Hungary, France 1910
2022 G Brazil, Switzerland, Serbia, Cameroon 1901
2014 G Germany, Portugal, United States, Ghana 1896
2002 F Argentina, England, Sweden, Nigeria 1895
1978 4 Netherlands, Scotland, Iran, Peru 1894
1994 E Italy, Ireland, Mexico, Norway 1889
2018 E Brazil, Switzerland, Serbia, Costa Rica 1888
1982 6 Brazil, Soviet Union, Scotland, New Zealand 1885
1986 E West Germany, Denmark, Scotland, Uruguay 1885
2022 E Spain, Germany, Japan, Costa Rica 1885
2018 B Spain, Portugal, Iran, Morocco 1884
Two from 2022 made the cut.
On 2022-11-13 17:21, Al Kamista wrote:
So after agonizing for months about how I will manage to actually boycott this Abomination World Cup, I feel my will power weakening by the day. The football DNA is woven too deep into my molecules.
Based on Elo ratings, these are the toughest GoDs since 1970:Are you defining group of death as the ones with the highest average Elo ratings ?
On Monday, November 14, 2022 at 12:21:12 AM UTC, alka...@hotmail.com wrote:
So after agonizing for months about how I will manage to actually boycott this Abomination World Cup, I feel my will power weakening by the day. The football DNA is woven too deep into my molecules.
Based on Elo ratings, these are the toughest GoDs since 1970:
YEAR GROUP TEAMS AVG. ELO
1970 3 England, Brazil, Czechoslovakia, Romania 1959
2014 B Spain, Netherlands, Chile, Australia 1931
1978 3 Brazil, Spain, Austria, Sweden 1923
1974 2 Brazil, Yugoslavia, Scotland, Zaire 1915
1978 1 Italy, Argentina, Hungary, France 1910
2022 G Brazil, Switzerland, Serbia, Cameroon 1901
2014 G Germany, Portugal, United States, Ghana 1896
2002 F Argentina, England, Sweden, Nigeria 1895
1978 4 Netherlands, Scotland, Iran, Peru 1894
1994 E Italy, Ireland, Mexico, Norway 1889
2018 E Brazil, Switzerland, Serbia, Costa Rica 1888
1982 6 Brazil, Soviet Union, Scotland, New Zealand 1885
1986 E West Germany, Denmark, Scotland, Uruguay 1885
2022 E Spain, Germany, Japan, Costa Rica 1885
2018 B Spain, Portugal, Iran, Morocco 1884
Two from 2022 made the cut.What about 1982? Brazil,Argentina, Italy
On 2022-11-13 17:21, Al Kamista wrote:
So after agonizing for months about how I will manage to actually boycott this Abomination World Cup, I feel my will power weakening by the day. The football DNA is woven too deep into my molecules.
Based on Elo ratings, these are the toughest GoDs since 1970:Are you defining group of death as the ones with the highest average Elo ratings ?
But what is a group of death, really? Should it not perhaps be the most competitive group, perhaps represented as the one with the smallest
standard deviation of ratings ?
On Sunday, November 13, 2022 at 10:00:11 PM UTC-5, MH wrote:
On 2022-11-13 17:21, Al Kamista wrote:
So after agonizing for months about how I will manage to actually boycott this Abomination World Cup, I feel my will power weakening by the day. The football DNA is woven too deep into my molecules.Are you defining group of death as the ones with the highest average Elo
Based on Elo ratings, these are the toughest GoDs since 1970:
ratings ?
But what is a group of death, really? Should it not perhaps be the most
competitive group, perhaps represented as the one with the smallest
standard deviation of ratings ?
But it should be some combination of the mean and the standard deviation, no? A very balanced group with 4 middling teams would not be considered a Group of Death. Nor would a group with two super-heavyweights and two middling teams.
Based on Elo ratings, these are the toughest GoDs since 1970:
On 2022-11-14 07:22, Futbolmetrix wrote:
On Sunday, November 13, 2022 at 10:00:11 PM UTC-5, MH wrote:
On 2022-11-13 17:21, Al Kamista wrote:
So after agonizing for months about how I will manage to actually boycott this Abomination World Cup, I feel my will power weakening by the day. The football DNA is woven too deep into my molecules.Are you defining group of death as the ones with the highest average Elo >> ratings ?
Based on Elo ratings, these are the toughest GoDs since 1970:
But what is a group of death, really? Should it not perhaps be the most >> competitive group, perhaps represented as the one with the smallest
standard deviation of ratings ?
But it should be some combination of the mean and the standard deviation, no? A very balanced group with 4 middling teams would not be considered a Group of Death. Nor would a group with two super-heavyweights and two middling teams.Good question. I think in most people's minds a group of death has some alleged heavyweights in it, often judged more by reputation than current form. There is also the issue of format. In 1986-94 , with 3 teams
advancing 2/3 of the of time, a group with three very strong teams was
not necessarily death to any of them.
Would a better definition of a group of death be one in which at least
one team ranked in the top 50 % of teams remaining in the tournament
must necessarily be eliminated. Or maybe 40 % to make it more
stringent. Or they have to rank in the top half in both Elo and FIFA rankings ?
How would you combine mean and SD ?
On Monday, November 14, 2022 at 10:22:57 AM UTC-5, MH wrote:based on my adaptation of the Elo formula, same one that I use for the SophCon). I happen to have the data for the 1998-2022 period. And let's set x at 25%. Based on this criterion, I have only 5 Groups of Death:
On 2022-11-14 07:22, Futbolmetrix wrote:
On Sunday, November 13, 2022 at 10:00:11 PM UTC-5, MH wrote:Good question. I think in most people's minds a group of death has some
On 2022-11-13 17:21, Al Kamista wrote:
So after agonizing for months about how I will manage to actually boycott this Abomination World Cup, I feel my will power weakening by the day. The football DNA is woven too deep into my molecules.Are you defining group of death as the ones with the highest average Elo >>>> ratings ?
Based on Elo ratings, these are the toughest GoDs since 1970:
But what is a group of death, really? Should it not perhaps be the most >>>> competitive group, perhaps represented as the one with the smallest
standard deviation of ratings ?
But it should be some combination of the mean and the standard deviation, no? A very balanced group with 4 middling teams would not be considered a Group of Death. Nor would a group with two super-heavyweights and two middling teams.
alleged heavyweights in it, often judged more by reputation than current
form. There is also the issue of format. In 1986-94 , with 3 teams
advancing 2/3 of the of time, a group with three very strong teams was
not necessarily death to any of them.
Would a better definition of a group of death be one in which at least
one team ranked in the top 50 % of teams remaining in the tournament
must necessarily be eliminated. Or maybe 40 % to make it more
stringent. Or they have to rank in the top half in both Elo and FIFA
rankings ?
How would you combine mean and SD ?
Not sure, but here is a different (and somewhat arbitrary) criterion: a group of Death is a group in which one of the top 5 teams by Elo rating entering the tournament has a more than x% chance of being eliminated at the group stage (probabilities
1. Netherlands 2014 (number 5 by Elo rating entering the tournament, Elo rating 1986, group with ESP-CHI-AUS). Elimination probability 39%
2. France 2018 (4th, 1987, AUS-DEN-PER): 27%
3. Argentina 2002 (2nd, 2015, ENG-NIG-SWE): 26%
4. Netherlands 2006 (2nd, 1995, ARG-SRB-CIV): 25%
5. Czech Republic 2006 (5th, 1972, ITA-GHA-USA): 25%
None of the 2022 groups make it. Let's compare with Alka's original list, taking out the the pre-1998 tournaments:
2014 B Spain, Netherlands, Chile, Australia 1931 --> Yes, right up there
2022 G Brazil, Switzerland, Serbia, Cameroon 1901 --> Brazil is too much stronger (8% elimination probabiliy) than the rest for this to be a GoD
2014 G Germany, Portugal, United States, Ghana 1896 --> Germany was at 17% 2002 F Argentina, England, Sweden, Nigeria 1895 --> Yes
2018 E Brazil, Switzerland, Serbia, Costa Rica 1888 --> Brazil 8%
2022 E Spain, Germany, Japan, Costa Rica 1885 --> Spain at 19%, Germany (not in the top 5) at 32%
2018 B Spain, Portugal, Iran, Morocco 1884 --> Spain at about 20%
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