Brasil - Uruguay (4-1, 2-2, n/a, 2-1, 3-3, 1-1, n/a). Matchday 4: URU
2-0 BRA
Not many people remember that Maracanã wasn't the only Brazilian stadium where Uruguay has done an honour lap. Arena Fonte Nova, which will hold
this game and, back then, wasn't an "Arena" yet, was the other one, as
it saw the celestes do it after drawing the hosts in the return leg of
the 1983 Copa America final. After all the issues between Bielsa and the players, Uruguay comes from a confidence-boosting win over Colombia, and
had success in their previous encounters against Brasil, beating them at
home earlier in this WCQ and then eliminating them from Copa America in
the US. Plus, it's not like they ever need any sort of motivation to
face this derby. Brasil has to watch out and get its act together. A
home win is definitely doable, but it'll certainly require more than
they've been showing thus far. I'll predict an 1-1 draw here too (in soph-terms: Brasil 0.35, draw 0.35, Uruguay 0.30).
On 14/11/2024 22:59, I wrote:
Venezuela 1-1 Brasil
Today's round opened with an upset at Estadio Monumental de Maturín.
Brasil played better and created a number of opportunities, but
squandered almost all of them and couldn't beat the hosts. Raphinha
scored from a free kick in the 42nd minute, but a mere 40 seconds after
returning from half time Savarino drew level with a nice high placed
shot. In the 61st minute Romo brought down Vinicius Jr and VAR robots
corrected the referee's initial free kick call to a penalty kick one.
But Vini took it very poorly and Romo stopped it with ease.
This is the first time Venezuela ever avoids a home loss to Brasil, all
their previous 10 home games had resulted in wins for the visitors.
Brasil remains on a solid position inside the qualifying zone. And
though Venezuela lost a little touch from it, they remain in the playoff
spot and, I would guess, didn't really see this point coming, all due
respect.
Paraguay 2-1 Argentina
Another excellent result for Paraguay at Estadio Defensores del Chaco in
Asunción. Having already beaten Brasil there, now it was Argentina's
turn at their hands. Lautaro Martinez scored first for Argentina, a goal
originally called off incorrectly for offsides, a mistake corrected by
VAR robots. Sanabria drew level with a very nice overhead kick and,
early in the second half, Alderete scored the winner for the hosts.
Paraguay opens four points ahead of the playoff spot, it's been a while
since the last time they were so comfortably inside it. Argentina is
still 1st and will remain there, unless Colombia does something very
nasty at El Centenario tomorrow.
Ecuador 4-0 Bolivia
Very easy win for the hosts at Estadio Monumental de Guayaquil, as
Ecuador wallops its way past Bolivia, with goals by Enner Valencia,
Gonzalo Plata (twice) and Alan Minda. Not sure if they brought the match
to a sea level venue because of who the opponent was. Guayaquil, in the
past, was one of Ecuador's main venues, getting about as many games as
Quito, if not more, but in the 21st century this was just the third WCQ
they hold there (overall only 10 games there since 2000, seven of which
friendlies, almost all of which against non-Conmebol teams). In any
event, they made their superiority count.
Ecuador keeps its solid run, they'd be 3rd if not for their points
penalty, well-posed to go to North America'2026. Bolivia looked not
really horrible for those two rounds against Chile and Colombia, but
reality hits hard and it's now 10 goals against in the last two games.
Predictably, then, goal difference holds them below Venezuela in the
standings.
To be played tomorrow:
Uruguay 3-2 Colombia
Goalfest at Estadio Centenario, in Montevideo. Quintero opened count for
the visitors on the 30th minute, with a free kick that seemed to catch
Rochet off-guard. Uruguay soldiered on and drew level with an own goal
by Davinson Sanchez, on the 56th minute. Four minutes later, Rodrigo
Aguirre, a 30-year old on his first ever cap for Uruguay scored the
second, cementing the comeback. Five minutes into injury time, Carlos
Gómez drew the game again for Colombia, seemingly stealing two points
from right under Uruguayan noses; but upon restart, Manuel Ugarte still
found the time to score the now definitive winner for the hosts.
Peru 0-0 Chile
Even though both sides remain, by some distance, at the bottom of the
table, they did put out an entertaining Clásico del Pacífico at Estadio Monumental de Lima. Lots of scoring chances for both sides, which
demanded a lot of work from goalkeepers Carlos Cáceda and Brayan Cortés.
At the end of the game, Brazilian referee Wilton Sampaio called a
penalty over Lapadula for the hosts but, upon review by VAR robots, this
was called off due to an earlier offside position. Peru cannot catch a
break, it seems, while Gareca is yet to win a game at Chile's helm.
Table [points, games, w-d-l, gs-gc, gd, (mi = media inglese)]
1 Argentina 22 11 7 1 3 20-7 13+ (mi = +1)
2 Uruguay 19 11 5 4 2 16-8 8+ (mi = -4)
3 Colombia 19 11 5 4 2 15-9 6+ (mi = -2)
4 Brasil 17 11 5 2 4 16-10 6+ (mi = -4)
5 Ecuador 16 11 5 4 2 10-4 6+ (mi = -4) (-3 points penalty)
6 Paraguay 16 11 4 4 3 6-5 1+ (mi = -7) ------------------------------------------------
7 Venezuela 12 11 2 6 3 9-11 2- (mi =-11) ------------------------------------------------
8 Bolivia 12 11 4 0 7 11-25 14- (mi = -9)
9 Peru 7 11 1 4 6 3-14 11- (mi =-16)
10 Chile 6 11 1 3 7 5-18 13- (mi =-15)
Next round to be played on November 14th.
Bolivia - Paraguay (4-0, 1-0, 3-1, 4-2, 2-1, 0-0, 0-0). Matchday 4: PAR
1-0 BOL
The pattern seems to be that, at home, Bolivia wins this fixture, which
will be played at Estadio Municipal de El Alto. Paraguay has been on a
bit of a roll, with high confidence after having beaten Argentina, while Bolivia is coming from heavy losses. Still, I think it should be close
and will make of it a Bolivian win, if only to keep things interesting
in the qualifying table. Say, Bolivia 1-0 (in soph-terms: Bolivia 0.50,
draw 0.35, Paraguay 0.15).
Colombia - Ecuador (0-0, 3-1, 1-0, 2-0, 3-0, 0-0, 1-0). Matchday 4: 0-0
This should be up for grabs I guess, a game between two teams that have
very similar runs so far. At Estadio Metropolitano de Barranquilla, I
guess Colombia has a slight edge, but not really by much? I'll call it
an 1-1 tie (in soph-terms: Colombia 0.40, draw 0.30, Ecuador 0.30).
Argentina - Peru (1-0, 0-0, 3-1, 2-1, 2-0, 2-0, 2-0). Matchday 4: PER
0-2 ARG
This one sounds straightforward enough I suppose. Argentina is the much better side and, at La Bombonera, in Buenos Aires, should prevail. I'll
call it a 2-0 win for the hosts (in soph-terms: Argentina 0.90, draw
0.05, Peru 0.05).
Chile - Venezuela (3-0, 3-1, 3-0, 2-2, 2-1, 0-2, 6-0). Matchday 4: VEN
3-0 CHI
It's been over a year since either team last won a game in this
qualifying cycle. Chile is on a 8-game dry run, their last (and only)
win coming in Round 3, while Venezuela has done barely better: a 7-game
dry spell, their last victory having been precisely over Chile in Round
4. Smells like a draw at Estadio Nacional de Santiago, then, so I'll
predict an 1-1 here as well, with a slight edge to the visitors, who
seem to have a better side (in soph-terms: Chile 0.30, draw 0.35,
Venezuela 0.35).
Brasil - Uruguay (4-1, 2-2, n/a, 2-1, 3-3, 1-1, n/a). Matchday 4: URU
2-0 BRA
Not many people remember that Maracanã wasn't the only Brazilian stadium where Uruguay has done an honour lap. Arena Fonte Nova, which will hold
this game and, back then, wasn't an "Arena" yet, was the other one, as
it saw the celestes do it after drawing the hosts in the return leg of
the 1983 Copa America final. After all the issues between Bielsa and the players, Uruguay comes from a confidence-boosting win over Colombia, and
had success in their previous encounters against Brasil, beating them at
home earlier in this WCQ and then eliminating them from Copa America in
the US. Plus, it's not like they ever need any sort of motivation to
face this derby. Brasil has to watch out and get its act together. A
home win is definitely doable, but it'll certainly require more than
they've been showing thus far. I'll predict an 1-1 draw here too (in soph-terms: Brasil 0.35, draw 0.35, Uruguay 0.30).
On Sat, 16 Nov 2024 6:50:16 +0000, Lléo wrote:
Next round to be played on November 14th.
I think you meant 19th. Here's my predictions:
Bolivia - Paraguay (4-0, 1-0, 3-1, 4-2, 2-1, 0-0, 0-0). Matchday 4: PAR
1-0 BOL
The pattern seems to be that, at home, Bolivia wins this fixture, which
will be played at Estadio Municipal de El Alto. Paraguay has been on a
bit of a roll, with high confidence after having beaten Argentina, while
Bolivia is coming from heavy losses. Still, I think it should be close
and will make of it a Bolivian win, if only to keep things interesting
in the qualifying table. Say, Bolivia 1-0 (in soph-terms: Bolivia 0.50,
draw 0.35, Paraguay 0.15).
2-0
Colombia - Ecuador (0-0, 3-1, 1-0, 2-0, 3-0, 0-0, 1-0). Matchday 4: 0-0
This should be up for grabs I guess, a game between two teams that have
very similar runs so far. At Estadio Metropolitano de Barranquilla, I
guess Colombia has a slight edge, but not really by much? I'll call it
an 1-1 tie (in soph-terms: Colombia 0.40, draw 0.30, Ecuador 0.30).
0-0
Argentina - Peru (1-0, 0-0, 3-1, 2-1, 2-0, 2-0, 2-0). Matchday 4: PER
0-2 ARG
This one sounds straightforward enough I suppose. Argentina is the much
better side and, at La Bombonera, in Buenos Aires, should prevail. I'll
call it a 2-0 win for the hosts (in soph-terms: Argentina 0.90, draw
0.05, Peru 0.05).
4-0
Chile - Venezuela (3-0, 3-1, 3-0, 2-2, 2-1, 0-2, 6-0). Matchday 4: VEN
3-0 CHI
It's been over a year since either team last won a game in this
qualifying cycle. Chile is on a 8-game dry run, their last (and only)
win coming in Round 3, while Venezuela has done barely better: a 7-game
dry spell, their last victory having been precisely over Chile in Round
4. Smells like a draw at Estadio Nacional de Santiago, then, so I'll
predict an 1-1 here as well, with a slight edge to the visitors, who
seem to have a better side (in soph-terms: Chile 0.30, draw 0.35,
Venezuela 0.35).
1-2
Brasil - Uruguay (4-1, 2-2, n/a, 2-1, 3-3, 1-1, n/a). Matchday 4: URU
2-0 BRA
Not many people remember that Maracanã wasn't the only Brazilian stadium
where Uruguay has done an honour lap. Arena Fonte Nova, which will hold
this game and, back then, wasn't an "Arena" yet, was the other one, as
it saw the celestes do it after drawing the hosts in the return leg of
the 1983 Copa America final. After all the issues between Bielsa and the
players, Uruguay comes from a confidence-boosting win over Colombia, and
had success in their previous encounters against Brasil, beating them at
home earlier in this WCQ and then eliminating them from Copa America in
the US. Plus, it's not like they ever need any sort of motivation to
face this derby. Brasil has to watch out and get its act together. A
home win is definitely doable, but it'll certainly require more than
they've been showing thus far. I'll predict an 1-1 draw here too (in
soph-terms: Brasil 0.35, draw 0.35, Uruguay 0.30).
Still not sure how many players are suspended for Uruguay, but they beat Colombia; they're probably good enough to get a draw here.
2-2
Lleo 100
Mark 90
Total:
Lleo 215
Mark 180
My scoring system has potential. It's something to build on; I
think there's room for improvement though.
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