Download spreadsheets here:

https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2024/02/12/european-cups-2023-2024-sophisticated-prediction-contest-knockout-round/

Deadline before kickoff tomorrow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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Quoting Futbolmetrix in rec.sport.soccer:

Download spreadsheets here:

https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2024/02/12/european-cups-2023-2024-sophisticated-prediction-contest-knockout-round/

Deadline before kickoff tomorrow

No hurry then! :-)
--
Manchester United FC - CHAMPIONS
Latest: England '13 (20th) Europa '17, UEFA '08, World '08

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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anders t wrote:

Quoting Futbolmetrix in rec.sport.soccer:

Download spreadsheets here:

https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2024/02/12/european-cups-2023-2024-sophisticated-prediction-contest-knockout-round/

Deadline before kickoff tomorrow

8 minutes to kickoff (but I may accept late entries if you pinky-swear that you made the predictions before kickoff):

UCL entries so far:

Agnostic
Futbolmetrix
ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix)
TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix)
Pinnacle (by Futbolmetrix)
Werner
MH
Jesper
Collective Consciousness to be added.

We few, we happy few, we band of brothers!

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Futbolmetrix wrote:

Standings after the first round of matches (UCL assumes favorites in ties that have not started yet go through to next round; draws in the first leg assumes that home team in the return leg advances)

Champions League
-----------------
Jesper -5.7951
MH -7.0304
Futbolmetrix -7.3165
CollectiveConsciousness -7.5544
Werner Pichler -7.6682
ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -8.1940
TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -8.6260
Pinnacle (by Futbolmetrix) -9.4854
Agnostic -11.0904

Jesper knew something about Bayern that most of us didn't?


Europa League
--------------
Futbolmetrix -8.1682
Jesper -8.4403
ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -8.5654
CollectiveConsciousness -9.0693
TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -9.8487
Werner Pichler -10.2509
MH -10.5654
Agnostic -11.0904

Real Football(c) rules!


Conference League
-----------------
Agnostic -11.0904
ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -11.8179
Futbolmetrix -12.2787
TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -12.5491
CollectiveConsciousness -12.5669
Werner Pichler -12.9980
MH -13.4349
Jesper -14.3186

Aggie shrugged.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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Futbolmetrix wrote:

Futbolmetrix wrote:

Standings after the first round of matches (UCL assumes favorites in ties that have not started yet go through to next round; draws in the first leg assumes that home team in the return leg advances)

Standings after this week's matches:

UCL:
----
Jesper -8.5677
MH -8.7250
Futbolmetrix -9.2054
CollectiveConsciousness -9.8494
ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -10.0326
Werner Pichler -10.4408
Agnostic -11.0904
TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -11.1796
Pinnacle (by Futbolmetrix) -12.2157

We should all go and make money off the bookies.


UEL
----
Futbolmetrix -9.1473
ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -9.1520
Jesper -9.2512
CollectiveConsciousness -9.9313
MH -10.5654
Agnostic -11.0904
TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -11.4856
Werner Pichler -11.4890


Europa League is where Real(c) football and Real(c) football knowledge is.


UCL (the other one)
-------------------
Futbolmetrix -8.9916
MH -10.6623
CollectiveConsciousness -11.0103
Agnostic -11.0904
Werner Pichler -11.3328
ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -11.5008
Jesper -12.3569
TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -12.8014


I guess the Conference League has some Real(c) football too.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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Futbolmetrix wrote:

Standings after the Round of 16 in all competitions:

Champions
---------
MH -5.737
Futbolmetrix -5.782
Jesper -5.795
CollectiveConsciousness -6.236
Pinnacle (by Futbolmetrix) -6.318
TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -6.581
Werner Pichler -6.995
ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -7.113
Agnostic -11.090

Very close between the top 3. Up the humans!


Europa
---------
ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -17.9284
MH -17.9527
Jesper -18.3820
CollectiveConsciousness -18.8061
Futbolmetrix -19.6548
TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -20.0369
Werner Pichler -21.0874
Agnostic -22.1807

MH going for the double?


Conference
-----------
MH -17.4899
CollectiveConsciousness -19.4102
Futbolmetrix -19.6613
ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -19.6995
Werner Pichler -19.7560
TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -20.2462
Jesper -22.0090
Agnostic -22.1807

Or the treble?

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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Futbolmetrix wrote:

Futbolmetrix wrote:

Standings after the Round of 16 in all competitions:

Standings after the QFs:

Champions League
---------------
Futbolmetrix -11.757
Jesper -11.941
Pinnacle (by Futbolmetrix) -12.015
MH -12.216
CollectiveConsciousness -12.305
TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -12.489
ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -13.121
Werner Pichler -13.825
Agnostic -16.636

Yay!


Europa League
-------------
Jesper -23.7573
ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -24.4379
MH -24.7775
CollectiveConsciousness -24.9260
Futbolmetrix -25.4856
TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -26.3655
Werner Pichler -27.6317
Agnostic -27.7259

Jesper takes the lead


Conference League
-----------------
MH -22.3628
Werner Pichler -24.0301
CollectiveConsciousness -24.2378
Futbolmetrix -24.5110
ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -24.7832
TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -25.2000
Jesper -27.5542
Agnostic -27.7259

Commanding lead for MH.

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Jesper Lauridsen wrote:


Standings after the Semifinals

Champions League
----------------
Jesper -14.713
Pinnacle (by Futbolmetrix) -14.964
CollectiveConsciousness -15.309
MH -15.313
TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -15.500
Futbolmetrix -15.828
ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -15.964
Werner Pichler -17.911
Agnostic -19.408

Dortmund advancing kicks me out of first place. Jesper wins with a Dortmund win, the bookies win with a Real win. In other words, bookies win (first time ever in the history of the Sophcon?)


Europa League
-------------

Jesper -26.5298
ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -26.6798
CollectiveConsciousness -27.5123
MH -27.5826
Futbolmetrix -27.9306
TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -28.8326
Werner Pichler -30.3358
Agnostic -30.4985

Jesper wins with an *Atalanta* win, ClubElo with a Leverkusen win.



Conference League
-----------------
MH -26.4831
CollectiveConsciousness -27.8861
TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -28.6627
Futbolmetrix -28.6690
Werner Pichler -28.7157
ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -28.7660
Jesper -30.3268
Agnostic -30.4985


MH wins this, regardless of who wins between Fiorentina and Olympiacos

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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Futbolmetrix wrote:

Final standings:

Champions League
-----------------
Name Sum of Log Score
Pinnacle (by Futbolmetrix) -15.725
Jesper -16.100
CollectiveConsciousness -16.459
TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -16.658
MH -16.699
Futbolmetrix -16.869
ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -17.065
Werner Pichler -19.297
Agnostic -20.794

This is the first SophCon title for a bookies-based prediction.
Interesting.


Europa League
-------------
Jesper -27.9161
ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -28.2603
MH -28.9689
CollectiveConsciousness -29.0101
Futbolmetrix -29.9148
TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -30.2749
Werner Pichler -31.7221
Agnostic -31.8848

Congrats Jesper!



Conference League
-----------------
MH -27.8694
CollectiveConsciousness -29.3989
Werner Pichler -30.1020
TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -30.2191
Futbolmetrix -30.4182
ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -30.7569Ha
Jesper -31.7131
Agnostic -31.8848

Congrats, MH!

Hall of Sophistication to be updated shortly!

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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Futbolmetrix wrote:

Hall of Sophistication to be updated shortly!

Hall of Sophistication:

MH 13
Jesper Lauridsen 9
Anders T 7
Futbolmetrix 7
Werner Pichler 7
Club Elo 7
Jesus Petry 7
TransferMarkt 6
Binder Dundat 5
FiveThirtyEight 5
Jack C 3
Jussi Uosukainen 3
7h@ch 3
Silver Aurora 2
fitbawnumbers 2
AQB 2
Jimmy Featherstone 2
ruud 2
Clement 2
ClubElo/ClubTM 1
Lorenzo Carli 1
Pinnacle (by Futbolmetrix) 1
Abubakr 1
FiveThirtyEight Minus 1
Tim Hooper 1
Red 1
Voros McCracken 1
MMcC 1
Colin 1
EuroClubIndex 1
FIFA (implemented by Futbolmetrix 1
Konakalab 1
Agnostic 1
Gronaldo 1
Dec Tech 1
Pseudo FiveThirtyEight 1
La Violeta 1
Matthias Muehlich 1
Remiqz 1
Renato Guadagnolo 1

And this will probably be the final Hall of Sophistication. The SophCon
has had a good run, but it may be time to hang up the prediction boots.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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On 2024-06-01 16:24, Futbolmetrix wrote:

Futbolmetrix wrote:

Hall of Sophistication to be updated shortly!

Hall of Sophistication:

MH    13
Jesper Lauridsen       9
Anders T       7
Futbolmetrix        7
Werner Pichler       7
Club Elo       7
Jesus Petry       7
TransferMarkt    6
Binder Dundat       5
FiveThirtyEight    5
Jack C    3
Jussi Uosukainen       3
7h@ch        3
Silver Aurora    2
fitbawnumbers    2
AQB        2
Jimmy Featherstone       2
ruud        2
Clement        2
ClubElo/ClubTM    1
Lorenzo Carli    1
Pinnacle (by Futbolmetrix)    1
Abubakr        1
FiveThirtyEight Minus    1
Tim Hooper       1
Red    1
Voros McCracken       1
MMcC        1
Colin        1
EuroClubIndex    1
FIFA (implemented by Futbolmetrix     1
Konakalab    1
Agnostic        1
Gronaldo        1
Dec Tech    1
Pseudo FiveThirtyEight    1
La Violeta       1
Matthias Muehlich       1
Remiqz    1
Renato Guadagnolo       1

And this will probably be the final Hall of Sophistication. The SophCon
has had a good run, but it may be time to hang up the prediction boots.

What, with a Euro and Big Copa America just around the corner ?

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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Futbolmetrix <futbolmetrix@yahoo.com> wrote:

Futbolmetrix wrote:

Hall of Sophistication to be updated shortly!

Hall of Sophistication:

MH 13
Jesper Lauridsen 9
Anders T 7
Futbolmetrix 7
Werner Pichler 7
Club Elo 7
Jesus Petry 7
TransferMarkt 6
Binder Dundat 5
FiveThirtyEight 5
Jack C 3
Jussi Uosukainen 3
7h@ch 3
Silver Aurora 2
fitbawnumbers 2
AQB 2
Jimmy Featherstone 2
ruud 2
Clement 2
ClubElo/ClubTM 1
Lorenzo Carli 1
Pinnacle (by Futbolmetrix) 1
Abubakr 1
FiveThirtyEight Minus 1
Tim Hooper 1
Red 1
Voros McCracken 1
MMcC 1
Colin 1
EuroClubIndex 1
FIFA (implemented by Futbolmetrix 1
Konakalab 1
Agnostic 1
Gronaldo 1
Dec Tech 1
Pseudo FiveThirtyEight 1
La Violeta 1
Matthias Muehlich 1
Remiqz 1
Renato Guadagnolo 1

And this will probably be the final Hall of Sophistication. The SophCon
has had a good run, but it may be time to hang up the prediction boots.

*bombshell*

I guess the new CL/EL/ConfL systems don’t lend
themselves to SophCons as easily as the old group
stages, but surely we’ll have one for the Euros?

Ciao,
Werner

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Werner Pichler wrote:

Futbolmetrix <futbolmetrix@yahoo.com> wrote:

And this will probably be the final Hall of Sophistication. The SophCon
has had a good run, but it may be time to hang up the prediction boots.

*bombshell*

I guess the new CL/EL/ConfL systems don’t lend
themselves to SophCons as easily as the old group
stages,

Well, one could still easily do a qualifies directly for last 16,
qualifies for next round, is eliminated (will teams still drop to the EL?)...but the truth is that this has become a bit too much work. Most
of the work is programming the bots, which had become almost automated
when the format was fixed, but now will require more intervention. I
guess I may just have to scale it down.

but surely we’ll have one for the Euros?

I guess we might as well have one. I have already prepared the
spreadsheet, but I am planning to submit only my human entry and the Elo
and TransferMarkt bots (without all the additional variants).

Stay tuned

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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Futbolmetrix <futbolmetrix@yahoo.com> wrote:

Werner Pichler wrote:

Futbolmetrix <futbolmetrix@yahoo.com> wrote:

And this will probably be the final Hall of Sophistication. The SophCon
has had a good run, but it may be time to hang up the prediction boots.

*bombshell*

I guess the new CL/EL/ConfL systems don’t lend
themselves to SophCons as easily as the old group
stages,

Well, one could still easily do a qualifies directly for last 16,
qualifies for next round, is eliminated (will teams still drop to the EL?)...but the truth is that this has become a bit too much work. Most
of the work is programming the bots, which had become almost automated
when the format was fixed, but now will require more intervention. I
guess I may just have to scale it down.

Overwhelmed by your own bots?
I think I’ve seen a movie or two about that…

Ciao,
Werner

but surely we’ll have one for the Euros?

I guess we might as well have one. I have already prepared the
spreadsheet, but I am planning to submit only my human entry and the Elo
and TransferMarkt bots (without all the additional variants).

Stay tuned

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