XGID=--a-ABC-B-A-bB---bbcbbBBa-:1:1:1:63:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O X X O |
| X O O | | O O O X X |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| O X | | X X | | 2 |
| O X X | | X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 174 O: 116 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 63
-------
Variant
-------
XGID=---aABC-B-A-bB---bbcbbBBa-:1:1:1:63:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O X X O |
| X O O | | O O O X X |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| O X | | X X | | 2 |
| O X X | | X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 174 O: 115 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 63
1. Rollout¹ 13/7 10/7 eq:-0.263
Player: 39.44% (G:6.73% B:0.24%)
Opponent: 60.56% (G:26.63% B:1.53%)
Confidence: ±0.024 (-0.287..-0.239) - [50.7%]
2. Rollout¹ 10/4 6/3* eq:-0.263
Player: 39.18% (G:8.27% B:0.45%)
Opponent: 60.82% (G:27.19% B:1.76%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.275..-0.251) - [49.3%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
XGID=--a-ABC-B-A-bB---bbcbbBBa-:1:1:1:63:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O X X O |
| X O O | | O O O X X |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| O X | | X X | | 2 |
| O X X | | X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 174 O: 116 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 63
I believe ah...clem had the right idea. Avoiding blots is less
important here than making sure that O's big rolls play poorly for
her. Blocking 5's by making the bar point helps achieve that.
I also did a quick rollout of a variant, though stronger settings
are probably warranted for it.
1. Rollout¹ 13/7 10/7 eq:-0.069
Player: 45.74% (G:9.35% B:0.41%)
Opponent: 54.26% (G:26.64% B:1.77%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.082..-0.057) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 10/4 6/3 eq:-0.208 (-0.139)
Player: 40.93% (G:7.42% B:0.32%)
Opponent: 59.07% (G:25.75% B:1.47%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.220..-0.196) - [0.0%]
3. Rollout¹ 13/4 eq:-0.276 (-0.206)
Player: 38.31% (G:7.20% B:0.30%)
Opponent: 61.69% (G:25.73% B:1.49%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.288..-0.264) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
-------
Variant
-------
XGID=---aABC-B-A-bB---bbcbbBBa-:1:1:1:63:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O X X O |
| X O O | | O O O X X |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| O X | | X X | | 2 |
| O X X | | X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 174 O: 115 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 63
1. Rollout¹ 13/7 10/7 eq:-0.263
Player: 39.44% (G:6.73% B:0.24%)
Opponent: 60.56% (G:26.63% B:1.53%)
Confidence: ±0.024 (-0.287..-0.239) - [50.7%]
2. Rollout¹ 10/4 6/3* eq:-0.263
Player: 39.18% (G:8.27% B:0.45%)
Opponent: 60.82% (G:27.19% B:1.76%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.275..-0.251) - [49.3%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
---
Tim Chow
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