XGID=aa-BBAC-A---cD-b-a-eb---B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O X |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O | | X X X |
| O X | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 145 O: 156 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action
---
Tim Chow
XGID=aa-BBAC-A---cD-b-a-eb---B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O X |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O | | X X X |
| O X | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 145 O: 156 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action
XGID=aa-BBAC-A---cD-b-a-eb---B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10...
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O X |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O | | X X X |
| O X | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 145 O: 156 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action
Paul's speculation was correct---I was surprised that XG thought
this was a pass. Here are the features of the position that I
ticked off:
- Nine checkers in the zone.
- O's blot is on my 1pt.
- O has made her 5pt.
- My two back checkers are still on the 24pt.
- I have only a slight race lead.
Other positions that have these features are typically takes,
though maybe close takes. So I was amazed that the rollout below
indicated a big pass. One feature that I neglected to take into
account was O's blot on her 8pt. How much difference do you think
it makes to shift a checker from O's 10pt to her 8pt? I didn't
think it would make a huge difference, but the XG rollout below
says it decreases O's equity by about 0.2, pushing X into take
territory.
On Tuesday, October 25, 2022 at 12:40:39 PM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
XGID=aa-BBAC-A---cD-b-a-eb---B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O X |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O | | X X X |
| O X | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 145 O: 156 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action
Paul's speculation was correct---I was surprised that XG thought
this was a pass. Here are the features of the position that I
ticked off:
- Nine checkers in the zone.
- O's blot is on my 1pt.
- O has made her 5pt.
- My two back checkers are still on the 24pt.
- I have only a slight race lead.
Other positions that have these features are typically takes,...
though maybe close takes. So I was amazed that the rollout below
indicated a big pass. One feature that I neglected to take into
account was O's blot on her 8pt. How much difference do you think
it makes to shift a checker from O's 10pt to her 8pt? I didn't
think it would make a huge difference, but the XG rollout below
says it decreases O's equity by about 0.2, pushing X into take
territory.
I'm not at all surprised at this 0.2 difference. I can't say I would have guessed
exactly this number, but I don't think I would have gone lower. I would probably have guessed
in the 0.2 <= x <= 0.3 range.
This blot is one of the reasons my (wrong) take was so tentative.
Paul
XGID=aa-BBAC-A---cD-b-a-eb---B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O X |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O | | X X X |
| O X | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 145 O: 156 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action
Paul's speculation was correct---I was surprised that XG thought
this was a pass. [...]
Your further discussion suggests the subject was sincere this time.
Maybe this is part of the issue, because X really has a two-way game:
his front position is a fine priming formation as well, far better than
O's in this regard.
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