XPost: soc.history.war.misc, sci.military.naval, or.politics

Promises, promises!!

from
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/russian-army-spent-force-212486

August 27, 2024 Topic: Security Region: Europe Blog Brand: The Buzz
Tags: RussiaUkraineWar In UkraineMilitaryDefenseRussian Army

Is the Russian Army a Spent Force?
Kyiv announced a significant operation in Russia's Kursk Oblast,
capturing nearly 600 Russian soldiers and taking control of over 100 settlements. This marks the first invasion into Russian territory since
World War II, forcing Russia to divert around 30,000 troops to the front.

by Peter Suciu Follow PeterSuciu on TwitterL

Summary and Key Points: Kyiv announced a significant operation in
Russia's Kursk Oblast, capturing nearly 600 Russian soldiers and taking
control of over 100 settlements. This marks the first invasion into
Russian territory since World War II, forcing Russia to divert around
30,000 troops to the front.

-The ongoing conflict, which began with Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, has seen unexpected resiliency from both sides, with
Russia continuing to rebuild its military despite heavy losses.

-The West should remain vigilant, as Russia's military may emerge from
the conflict with new strategies and capabilities.

Ukraine’s Invasion of Kursk: What It Means for Russia’s Military Future
On Tuesday, Kyiv claimed that in the ongoing operation in the Kursk
Oblast in Russia, it had captured nearly 600 Russian soldiers, while
Ukrainian forces now control more than 100 settlements. Launched on
August 6, it was the first invasion into Russian territory since the
Second World War – and while on a much smaller scale, comes 81 years
after the infamous Battle of Kursk, one of the largest battles in
military history.

"As of today, we have taken control of 1,294 square kilometres of
territory, which is 100 settlements... We have also significantly
replenished the exchange pool: 594 servicemen of the Russian Armed
Forces have been captured on this front," Oleksandr Syrskyi,
commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine told reporters during
the Forum of Heads of State Institutions.

According to Syrskyi one of the key objectives of the incursion into
Kursk was to force the Kremlin to divert forces from other fronts.

"At the moment, we can state that about 30,000 Russian servicemen have
been redeployed to the Kursk front, and this figure is growing," the
military chief continued.

The "invasion" into Kursk took Moscow off guard, and it is true that it
has struggled to respond, but Western analysts have repeatedly
questioned whether Kyiv's attempt to create a "buffer zone" will be
successful.

Both Sides Have Shown Unexpected Resiliency
When Russia launched its unprovoked invasion in late February 2022, the
Kremlin expected to reach Kyiv in days and secure a quick victory. It
dubbed the attack on its neighbor a "special military operation" that
was necessary to "de-Nazify" and "demilitarize" Ukraine. Russia almost certainly didn't expect to meet such fierce resistance, but it also
failed to see that the West would provide so much military support.

As a result, Moscow has lost upwards of 150,000 killed and even more
wounded. Nearly 3,200 tanks have also been destroyed or captured, and
the Russian military has been forced to refit old tanks – many dating
back to the Cold War – to replenish its losses. Even as production has
been ramped up, Moscow has struggled to replace keep pace with the losses.

And even as the casualties mount, the Russian military has managed to
show significant resiliency.

"We have assessed over the course of the last couple of months that
Russia has almost completely reconstituted militarily," Deputy Secretary
of State Kurt Campbell said at an event hosted by the Center for a New
American Security, in April.

As Defense News reported at the time, Moscow increased its own defense spending, reaching 6% of its national GDP in its 2024 budget. "The rise
is part of a larger effort by the Kremlin to move its economy, and in particular its defense industry, onto a wartime footing," the report noted.

Moreover, while the support that Kyiv received from the West likely took
Moscow by surprise, so too has the support the Kremlin has received from
its partners and allies including China, North Korea, and notably Iran.
Whereas in the Cold War, Moscow aided insurgent forces in revolutions
around the globe to spread communism, it now seems that the favor is
being paid in kind – with Russia receiving ordnance from Pyongyang and
drones from Tehran.

The delay in U.S. aid earlier this year also allowed Moscow to push its advantage and Kyiv struggled to hold ground.

Russia will continue to rebuild, but we do not know what shape it may take.

"At the moment, Russia is building a larger military and structuring it
to fight large land wars. But Moscow could pivot. In the last two years, Russian military scholarship has begun to hint at some of these
alternatives. Some argue that Russia should rely less on mass and ground forces, prioritize investments in advanced military technologies rather
than relying on legacy systems, or move toward a less centralized organizational structure and adopt a mission command approach," a July
report from RAND stated – and added, "The reconstituted Russian military could take many future forms, each with its own vulnerabilities and
strengths. Each would require a different military response from NATO.
The upcoming NATO summit in Washington represents an opportunity to come
up with a plan to tackle the challenge posed by the future Russian
force, whatever shape it may take."

Many lessons have been learned in the more than two-and-a-half-years of fighting in Ukraine. Russia may come out of it weaker when the dust
settles, but in the longer run could have gained meaningful experience
in a war against a near-peer adversary. And that should be the lesson
the West pays the most attention to.

Author Experience and Expertise: Peter Suciu
Peter Suciu is a Michigan-based writer. He has contributed to more than
four dozen magazines, newspapers, and websites with over 3,200 published
pieces over a twenty-year career in journalism. He regularly writes
about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. Peter is also a Contributing Writer for Forbes
and Clearance Jobs. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu. You can
email the author: Editor@nationalinterest.org.

Image Credit: Creative Commons.

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