XPost: soc.history.war.misc, sci.military.naval, alt.economics

Vojta Rod
Follow
Studied Media Studies at Metropolitan University Prague (Graduated 2018) Fri

In the next 10 years, could Russia collapse the same thing the Soviet
Union did in 1991?
Russia is clearly the closest it has come to collapse in last 25 years.
The fascist regime faces two huge problems:

1. Whatever the outcome of the attack on Ukraine, and however long it
takes, the war is lost. Militant regimes like Russia's need a victory,
and whatever the propagandists in Russia claim, for many reasons the
Russians lost this one.

2. Succession - Putin will die sooner or later, for a long time I
thought he was grooming his successor, but in fact you can already see
that the small circle of powerful around him are starting to jockey for
power and we are getting new "stars" like Vagner, Chechens, etc. And
it's quite possible that these groups and individuals will end up
jockeying for power amongst themselves.

2a. If you are a sufficiently educated and intelligent Russian and
especially younger one, you have come to understand, “thanks” to the
attack on Ukraine, that if you are not a collaborator with the regime
and want to ensure security and prosperity for yourself and your family,
you must emigrate away from Russia. Around a million mostly younger and
more educated Russians have fled Russia since the escalation of the war
began.

Perhaps the saddest realization based on the current situation for
Russia is the fact that the country will be a miserable place to live
for at least another two decades Not because of the economy (Though
again, I remind you, Russia has incomparably lower standards than what
we in the west are used to, and Russia is effectively going to war
production - which while it won't look so bad statistically now, the
country is downgrading its economic future). Equally important, but
perhaps even more serious, is the fact that Russian society is and will continue to be fully toxic and hostile to ordinary life.

As I like to say, you can't shout out prosperity in town squares or
build it with a gun Prosperity has to be built, many of the aggressive countries in the past understood this, Russia still does not.

8.4K views
View 120 upvotes
View 3 shares
1 of 5 answers
12 comments from
Tom Gunner
and more

Tom Gunner
· Fri
They’re fucked. Their young have left or are being killed. Their economy
is almost totally dependent on a dying export - and their pipelines
mostly head to permanently lost export markets. Most of their neighbours
hate them. And they’ve never had a functioning democratic Government.
It’s just a massive death spiral.

Terry Mindham
· Sat
A depressing reality for Russians. Compounded by the fact that most of
the young who fled Russia were educated, or had training in fields that
would help restore the country if they just had acceptable leadership.
No sign of that in the corrupt state that now rules — a nation void of promise.

Vojta Rod
· Sun
I have serious doubts It's “just" fail of the leadership, unfortunately
the vast majority of the Russian society is long term sick…

Para Dox
· Sat
Russia is destined to become the next North Korea

István Farkas
· Sat
I’m kinda disagree. Russia may very well collapse and fall apart,
however it still has enormous amount of natural resources. So someone
(some countries or serious investors) will go after them, after the dust settles, maybe even sooner. This is simply not applicable to North Korea.

Para Dox
· Sat
You may be right ….. but nobody really knows how it will all play out
for Russia’s future.

One possibility is that Russia’s leadership does not collapse (like
North Korea’s didn’t), and instead it doubles down on its isolationist policy and anti-West indoctrination of its population (like North Korea
did), and manages to keep going on that downward spiral for generations.

Russia leadership is playing Russian Roulette with the whole populations children's and grandchildren's future.

Glenn Nix
· Sat
They will be paying reparations for generations to rebuild Ukraine .

Glenn Nix
· Sat
They will be paying reparations for generations to rebuild Ukraine .

Tom Williams
LOL, not hardly.

Tom Williams
· Sun
Agreed. The Russian territory spans almost half the globe, from East to
West. In that territory are huge deposits of “rare earth” and “green energy” raw materials that the international, industrial “green revolution” is begging for. Additionally, Russia still has a lot of oil
and gas reserves, which the world will still need for the next 30–50
years into the future.

Russia plans to become a global leader in rare and rare earth metals
production | Kitco News

Russia, Ukraine, and the Critical Materials–Energy Nexus - American
Affairs Journal

AveragePerson
· 21h
So much cope rolled into a single post

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)