• Opinion | How Not to Negotiate with Russia

    From a425couple@21:1/5 to All on Sun Jan 29 18:12:16 2023
    XPost: sci.military.naval, soc.history.war.misc

    IMHO - quite informative and interesting.

    from https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/01/24/russia-ukraine-war-peace-talks-00079042

    Magazine
    FOREIGN AFFAIRS

    Opinion | How Not to Negotiate with Russia
    We’ve already learned a few things about Putin’s approach to peace talks.

    Vladimir Putin is seen at an event in St. Petersburg, Russia.
    Russian President Vladimir Putin is seen at an event in St. Petersburg,
    Russia, on Jan. 18, 2023. | Ilya Pitalev, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP

    Opinion by DMYTRO KULEBA
    01/24/2023 04:30 AM EST
    Dmytro Kuleba is the foreign minister of Ukraine.

    As Russia’s total aggression on Ukraine nears its first year, some
    people in the United States and elsewhere in the West continue to
    suggest that Ukraine needs to engage in peace negotiations with Russia
    as soon as possible. They may have good intentions, but they don’t seem
    to recognize that Russia has not proposed any meaningful talks and
    remains focused on destroying Ukraine militarily.

    But there’s a bigger point that the “peace at any cost” camp ignores: We have already spent over eight years negotiating with Russia.

    The so-called peace talks known as the Minsk process was initiated in
    2014 and included Ukraine, Russia, France and Germany. For eight years,
    Ukraine and the West tried to end the war by means of politics and
    diplomacy. Ukraine agreed to freeze battle lines and engaged in years of fruitless negotiations in order to, seemingly, avoid escalation and
    preserve peace in Europe.

    Needless to say, it didn’t work. While we were holding back, Russia was building up. The Minsk process ended when Russia unleashed a devastating
    total war of aggression on Ukraine at the end of February 2022.

    Dmytro Kuleba walks to a press conference at an event.
    Ukraine Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, center, walks to a press
    conference as he attends the ASEAN Summit in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, on
    Nov. 12, 2022. | Vincent Than/AP Photo

    That’s why the entire international community should carefully study the lessons of “Minsk” in order to restore international peace and security today and avoid falling into new Russian traps.

    Here are five lessons we learned from negotiations with Russia.

    Lesson #1: It’s a mistake to freeze the war and postpone the solution of territorial problems “for the future.”

    The architects of Minsk believed that fixing the status quo and
    decreasing hostilities would be enough for the conflict to gradually
    ease. This belief, based on a false premise of Russia’s alleged
    willingness to compromise, led to a real disaster for Ukraine, the
    European order and the world.

    In fact, from the inception of the Minsk agreements and throughout the
    Minsk process, Moscow was preparing for a full-scale war on Ukraine.
    While Russian representatives kept imitating diplomacy, the Kremlin was
    quietly building up its military forces and planning to destroy the
    democratic international order with a single devastating blow.

    Lesson #2: Russia doesn’t negotiate in good faith.

    The world saw Minsk as a platform for dialogue and a path to peace,
    while Russia saw it as an instrument to steadily pursue its aggressive
    goals and destroy Ukraine by means of political pressure and without the
    need to launch a full-scale invasion.

    From the very onset, Russian President Vladimir Putin wanted to
    dismantle Ukrainian statehood. If that was achievable by political and diplomatic means, fine, and he tried to use Minsk to erode Ukrainian sovereignty. But if that didn’t succeed, he planned all along to
    annihilate Ukraine by brute military force.

    The Minsk agreements were doomed to fail for only one reason: The
    Russian regime never sought fair peace and fair play. Even on the eve of
    the full-scale invasion, Putin continued to lie straight into the faces
    of world leaders, denying plans to attack.

    Deception lies at the core of Russia’s foreign policy and the way it
    treats international partners — both in Europe, Africa, Asia and other regions. Victims, weaklings, henchmen — this is whom Moscow prefers to
    see on the other side of the table.

    Lesson #3: The de-occupation of Crimea can’t be set aside.

    Western strategy to counter the Russian threat should have been based on decisive steps to de-occupy all Ukrainian territories as early as 2014.

    Even now, when I say Ukraine aims to fully restore its territorial
    integrity, journalists sometimes decide to clarify: “Including Crimea?” This question is senseless and only reinforces the Russian narrative
    that Crimea is special. No, it’s not. Crimea goes without saying. One of
    the gravest mistakes of Minsk was to allow Russia to believe that the
    issue of Crimea was off the table.

    There is no, and has never been any, difference between Crimea, Donbas, Kherson, Kyiv and other regions. Each of them is significant for the
    real protection of European and world security. When the West agreed to
    de facto close its eyes to Crimea’s annexation, it gave the green light
    to new Russian imperialist encroachments.

    Lesson #4: Russia does not reciprocate with constructive language and
    policy.

    How many times have we heard from Russian leaders that they were cheated
    or outwitted by others? But this is only a projection of their own
    goals, because for Russia, any victory is someone’s defeat. Putin’s
    Russia has been inventing complex combinations to deceive others, and
    not to find a common interest, even the most pragmatic one.

    In Putin’s mind, any compromise is a weakness. This is why the only way
    to speak to him is in the language of strength. Today, Putin has made
    his final bet by deciding to proceed with a genocidal war of aggression
    on Ukraine at any cost. This means there is nothing to talk about with
    him anymore. He made his choice and must be defeated.

    Lesson #5: Partners should force Russia, not Ukraine, into concessions.

    In 2015, Ukraine still stood on shifting sands. We had just begun
    rebuilding our army, parts of our territories were occupied and the
    economy had just begun recovering from the shock of revolution and war.
    Russia had a powerful army, levers of energy pressure and networks of
    agents of influence.

    Some of our partners thus tried to pressure Ukraine to be
    “constructive,” because we had more difficulty saying “no.”

    Despite all the flaws of the Minsk process, Ukraine adhered to its
    obligations. Together with France and Germany, we sought a transparent settlement and a just peace. The Russian regime, in its turn, did not
    fulfill a single point of the Minsk-1 and Minsk-2 agreements.

    Neither the first, a full cease-fire, nor the second, the withdrawal of
    all heavy weapons, nor any further points: the permission of OSCE
    monitoring, the all-for-all exchange of political prisoners and
    prisoners of war and establishing an international mechanism for the
    delivery of humanitarian aid.

    Since his election in 2019, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has
    tried to turn the Minsk process around, drive it out of its dead end,
    despite all its flaws. Under his presidency, Ukraine held 88 rounds of negotiations with Russia. Efforts to find a transparent and honest
    solution fell on deaf ears in the Kremlin. Russians did not want a
    settlement, let alone a just peace. And Russia was cynical enough to
    demand from others that Moscow’s security “concerns” should be heard.

    Now that the Kremlin failed to achieve the goals of its full-scale
    aggression, it’s now trying to outfox Ukraine and the international community. Russia’s latest statements hint at their wish to secure a new “Minsk” agreement, a new trap for the world. But what Russia really
    wants is a pause, not peace.

    Any hypothetical “Minsk-3” can have only one result: an even bloodier
    war, which will affect not only Ukraine, but draw in the entire
    Euro-Atlantic space and the world as a whole. Repeating mistakes will
    not yield better results.

    No other nation craves peace more than Ukraine. But we need a just and
    lasting peace which will prevent any new genocidal war against
    Ukrainians and other nations. That is why Zelenskyy proposed a Peace
    Formula with 10 specific steps covering the restoration of nuclear, food
    and energy security in the interests of the entire international community.

    If the entire international community takes a strong, consolidated
    position, then Russia will have no other option but to stop its killing
    of Ukrainians and engage in real substantive negotiations. The united
    will of the world is key to effective diplomacy and achieving
    sustainable peace for many decades to come.

    Furthermore, I believe that the voice of the West is not enough to solve
    the global security crisis triggered by Russia’s war and guarantee
    long-term international peace. We have reached a turning point when the position of the states of the Global South can help achieve this result.
    The fate of the diplomatic resolution of the war depends on the
    countries of Asia, Africa, the Middle East and Latin America stepping up
    and using their weight and influence. Every voice and every country is important, because in the U.N. charter there are no “big” and “small” states, influential and non-influential ones, champions or outsiders.

    Those who sincerely seek peace should join the consolidated
    international efforts on implementing the Ukrainian Peace Formula. We
    designed it in a flexible way allowing states to commit only to those
    elements of the formula which they fully share and take leadership in
    certain specific areas of peacebuilding efforts without committing to
    the other ones.

    The flaws of the Minsk process must not be repeated. In fact, they must
    serve as an example of how not to negotiate with Russia. In diplomatic language, “to minsk, minsking” has become shorthand to describe attempts
    to negotiate an end to a war which only brings the opposite result and
    allows an aggressor to launch an even bloodier and tougher aggression.

    Therefore, my message today is simple. Don’t minsk Ukraine and the world again!

    FILED UNDER: OPINION, FOREIGN AFFAIRS, VLADIMIR PUTIN, VOLODYMYR
    ZELENSKYY, UKRAINE,
    POLITICO

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  • From DAN@21:1/5 to All on Tue Feb 7 18:01:59 2023
    a425couple wrote:

    IMHO - quite informative and interesting.

    from >https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/01/24/russia-ukraine-war-peace-talks-00079042

    Magazine
    FOREIGN AFFAIRS

    Opinion | How Not to Negotiate with Russia
    Weve already learned a few things about Putins approach to peace talks.

    Vladimir Putin is seen at an event in St. Petersburg, Russia.
    Russian President Vladimir Putin is seen at an event in St. Petersburg, >Russia, on Jan. 18, 2023. | Ilya Pitalev, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP

    Opinion by DMYTRO KULEBA
    01/24/2023 04:30 AM EST
    Dmytro Kuleba is the foreign minister of Ukraine.

    As Russias total aggression on Ukraine nears its first year, some
    people in the United States and elsewhere in the West continue to
    suggest that Ukraine needs to engage in peace negotiations with Russia
    as soon as possible. They may have good intentions, but they dont seem
    to recognize that Russia has not proposed any meaningful talks and
    remains focused on destroying Ukraine militarily.

    But theres a bigger point that the peace at any cost camp ignores: We
    have already spent over eight years negotiating with Russia.

    The so-called peace talks known as the Minsk process was initiated in
    2014 and included Ukraine, Russia, France and Germany. For eight years, >Ukraine and the West tried to end the war by means of politics and
    diplomacy. Ukraine agreed to freeze battle lines and engaged in years of >fruitless negotiations in order to, seemingly, avoid escalation and
    preserve peace in Europe.

    Needless to say, it didnt work. While we were holding back, Russia was >building up. The Minsk process ended when Russia unleashed a devastating >total war of aggression on Ukraine at the end of February 2022.

    Dmytro Kuleba walks to a press conference at an event.
    Ukraine Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, center, walks to a press
    conference as he attends the ASEAN Summit in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, on
    Nov. 12, 2022. | Vincent Than/AP Photo

    Thats why the entire international community should carefully study the >lessons of Minsk in order to restore international peace and security
    today and avoid falling into new Russian traps.

    Here are five lessons we learned from negotiations with Russia.

    Lesson #1: Its a mistake to freeze the war and postpone the solution of >territorial problems for the future.

    Lesson #2: Russia doesnt negotiate in good faith.

    Lesson #3: The de-occupation of Crimea cant be set aside.

    Lesson #4: Russia does not reciprocate with constructive language and
    policy.

    Lesson #5: Partners should force Russia, not Ukraine, into concessions.

    Lesson #0: Appeasement of a dictator doesn't work. Didn't in 1936, never since.

    "You were given the choice between war and dishonor. You chose dishonor, you will have war." Churchill's words are as true today as they were then.

    Dictators must be stopped by the only means they understand and respect: force. Not enough democrassy politickers had enough backbone then, not enough now.

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    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)