Starting this week, a new era for prime-time cable news begins.
Tucker Carlson will assume Fox News’s 8 p.m. time slot on Monday, the
first time in nearly two decades that Bill O’Reilly will not be
kicking off Fox News’s prime-time lineup.
And Fox’s competitors are taking notice.
Mr. O’Reilly’s dismissal amounts to an enormous shift in cable news,
and the TV industry was ablaze with talk late last week whether the
move has the potential to open up a cable news war that for more than
a decade has been dominated by Fox News.
It was already expected to be a big week for cable news. Though the
100-day mark for Donald J. Trump’s presidency is mostly symbolic, the
cable networks were preparing to cover it the way only they can: as a
TV spectacle. MSNBC was preparing a big week of programming, CNN
invited its daytime anchor Jake Tapper to take over its 9 p.m. hour
all week, and Mr. O’Reilly was supposed to return from a vacation to
resume his role as the top-rated host in cable news.
It will be even bigger now. In addition to Mr. Carlson moving to 8
p.m., Fox’s afternoon opinion round-table show, “The Five” will move
into the 9 p.m. slot, followed by Sean Hannity. It is an untested
lineup, and some TV executives argued that Fox could be the most
vulnerable it has been in years, particularly with MSNBC and CNN
surging.
It remains an open question whether Mr. Carlson can effectively kick
off Fox’s prime-time lineup — something Mr. O’Reilly has done since
the late 1990s — and provide a strong lead-in to the other shows, or
whether “The Five,’’ with co-hosts who lack the star power of Fox’s
other prime-time personalities, can draw a big audience.
Others contend that Fox’s viewers are loyal. Even if it takes a small
ratings hit, the network’s lead is daunting, and its viewers
certainly will not be switching over to CNN or MSNBC.
“There’s vulnerability in that Fox’s biggest star is gone,” said
Andrew Heyward, the former president of CBS News, referring to Mr.
O’Reilly. “There will be resentment among his loyal base.”
Still, Mr. Heyward continued, “What mitigates that, of course, is
that Fox’s success is tied to being sui generis. There is no viable alternative for people who want to have that perspective played back
all through prime time.”
So far, there are mixed signals. On the day Mr. O’Reilly was
dismissed, his show — its title shortened from “The O’Reilly Factor’’
to just “The Factor” — was hosted by Dana Perino. About 3.3 million
viewers tuned in, twice the audience of “All In with Chris Hayes” on
MSNBC. But by Thursday of last week, viewership fell to 2.7 million
viewers. Mr. O’Reilly’s last episode as host on April 11 brought in
3.6 million viewers.
Not long ago, cable news was a fading genre; viewership and ratings
were dropping and the viewers it did have were aging as digital
platforms took away the younger audience that is more attractive to advertisers.
That all changed after Mr. Trump announced he was running for
president 22 months ago. Last year’s election helped produce record
ratings for the cable news networks.
Mr. Trump’s presidency has not guaranteed rating gains across the
board: Ratings have declined for all of the evening news and morning
shows on the broadcast networks this year, suggesting that
general-interest viewers may be growing fatigued by a news cycle
dominated by Mr. Trump and politics.
But cable news viewers, flocking to programming that aligns with
their political views, cannot get enough of it. Fox’s ratings are
enormous, and MSNBC and CNN are in their strongest competitive
positions in years.
MSNBC’s prime-time left-leaning lineup was tailor-made for those
seeking oppositional programming to the current administration.
Rachel Maddow, MSNBC’s 9 p.m. host, is on a hot streak, and in recent
weeks started beating Mr. Carlson among the coveted 25- to
54-year-olds vital to advertisers.
CNN is likewise gaining in the ratings — up 14 percent in total
viewers and 25 percent in the demographic compared with this time
last year — despite competing against itself in a year when it hosted numerous debates and town halls. CNN executives have been reluctant
to describe Mr. Tapper’s prime-time move next week as a trial run,
but if he does well, it could be an opening for him to make a move.
Still, Fox is well out in front of both CNN and MSNBC. In prime time,
the network averages more than 2.8 million viewers, while MSNBC draws
half of that at 1.4 million and CNN averages 1.2 million.
In the 25- to 54-year-old demographic, Fox News also commands a large
lead — 576,000 viewers a night, compared with 405,000 for CNN and
337,000 for MSNBC.
If there’s been one weakness to Fox’s dominance, it is the age of its audience. The median age of the Fox News prime-time viewer is 66, a
few years older than for MSNBC (64) and CNN (59), according to
Nielsen.
Some TV executives said on Wednesday that with such a sizable lead,
Fox’s biggest threat will not come from rival networks but from
challenges to the monopoly it has held on conservative commentary on
nightly television.
What could keep Fox inoculated from any kind of significant defection
is the lack of choice on the dial. MSNBC’s prime-time lineup is now
defiantly positioned against the Trump administration, and CNN,
though it has plenty of pro-Trump voices, has drawn withering
criticism from the president.
“Fox News viewers are old enough to remember, ‘Don’t touch that
dial,’” said Mr. Heyward. “Well, if they do touch the dial, there
aren’t a lot of places for them to go.”
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