• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1999

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Aug 26 19:37:35 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 261937
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 261937=20
    SDZ000-NEZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-262100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1999
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0237 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024

    Areas affected...northeast WY into western/southern SD and northern
    NE

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 261937Z - 262100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and
    intensity through the afternoon. Damaging wind gusts and large to
    very large hail remain possible. A watch will likely be needed soon.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms over eastern WY have slowly increased in
    intensity the past hour or so as this activity shifts east into
    somewhat better instability. Additional deepening of cumulus has
    been noted in visible satellite imagery along the outflow reinforced
    frontal draped near the SD/NE border. Pockets of stronger heating
    and cooling aloft has allowed MLCAPE to increase to around 1000
    J/kg. Somewhat stronger instability is noted with eastward extent
    along the surface boundary across north-central NE, and towering
    cumulus have recently developed in this area. While convective
    evolution remains a bit uncertain, modified 18z RAOB from UNR, along
    with forecast soundings across the region, continue to indicate a
    risk for large to very large hail and severe gusts. A watch will
    likely be needed for portions of the MCD area soon.

    ..Leitman/Guyer.. 08/26/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8YiOOY2ef5pHQG4jfusn0qTtGfI7k6PUKkMo9tkG8YUdzfFKpkdYIoKHLxVwFxFOWxSEN0KyI= K7qM1BmIEJO5uAirk8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...

    LAT...LON 42800541 43550556 44640559 45210517 45350360 44380184
    43569915 43279800 42769795 42319845 42089931 41910121
    41930313 42520481 42800541=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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