ACUS11 KWNS 090839
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090838=20
PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-091145-
Mesoscale Discussion 1872
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0338 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024
Areas affected...southern Pennsylvania...northern
Virginia...Maryland
Concerning...Tornado Watch 615...
Valid 090838Z - 091145Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 615 continues.
SUMMARY...The potential remains for brief tornadoes tonight, mainly
from northern Virginia into southeast Pennsylvania.
DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a warm front well into PA, where
low-level winds remain backed and are now gusting to 25-30 kt out of
the southeast. Theta-e has increased with the passage of the warm
front, with mid 70s F dewpoints and temperatures of 77-80 F.
Meanwhile, area VWPS indicate that low-level shear remains quite
favorable for brief tornadoes, with 0-1 km SRH values over 200
m2/s2.
Recent radar trends indicate increasing storms just east of the low,
where enhanced lift is interacting with the still warm and unstable
air mass. Given current trends, growing showers could become
supercells over the next several hours, with a tornado risk. In
addition, other convection interacting with the warm front farther
north may also attain rotation. As such, the tornado watch
continues, and areas just north of the ongoing watch may need to be
addressed later this morning as the air mass, and lift, remain
favorable.
..Jewell.. 08/09/2024
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8OfmizMRhwBWfQW-8d_BmKUv0jaHst3UnmLULEZfhnH4vFYip87_irwGN1f19TSvu7cNASXTX= B4d2bnWX-aLlVCgZWE$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...
LAT...LON 38397820 38567829 39137844 39757818 40327756 40887605
40807558 40537528 40177534 39427574 38677609 38307619
37967685 37967722 38287796 38397820=20
=3D =3D =3D
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