ACUS11 KWNS 072356
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072356=20
NCZ000-SCZ000-080200-
Mesoscale Discussion 1861
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0656 PM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024
Areas affected...coastal Carolinas
Concerning...Tornado Watch 610...
Valid 072356Z - 080200Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 610 continues.
SUMMARY...Tornado threat will continue within WW610.
DISCUSSION...Recent radar across the coastal Carolinas has shown
weak circulations off shore and within a band extending inland
across southern North Carolina from Wilmington to the South Carolina
border. Overall, the inland environment is characterized by weak
thermodynamic profiles, given MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg and poor
lapse rates (around 5 C/km). The most favorable low-level shear
remains further inland, where around 150 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH is
observed in objective analysis. Given the poor overlap of low-level
shear with instability and generally weak lapse rates, a
continuation of occasional weak circulations and potential for a
tornado could not be ruled out in the short term.=20
Further north across the northern portion of WW610 near the Outer
Banks, warming has occurred with temperatures in the low to mid 80s
yielding MLCAPE around 1500-2000 J/kg. RAP forecast indicate that
shear may increase across this region over the next several hours.=20
Should a band of cells move into this region, there may be a more
favorable corridor for tornadoes later in the watch period.
..Thornton.. 08/07/2024
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6iuoid5LE5f0nxHy3UNGl6BQjGs4HcwQY0A2R_KqbTSfkmiQpNtVYX2ukvu4_g_7mG_N70K46= ZOfyUjsAuzNDbwVxVk$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...
LAT...LON 34257932 34537893 34727831 34827771 34757728 34517690
34287696 33807745 33557776 33447838 33407881 33467916
33617979 33797979 34257932=20
=3D =3D =3D
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