• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1838

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Aug 6 07:26:37 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 060726
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 060726=20
    MIZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-060930-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1838
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0226 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024

    Areas affected...Southeast WI...far northeast IL...southwest lower MI...southern Lake Michigan

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 060726Z - 060930Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated strong/damaging gusts remain possible early this
    morning.

    DISCUSSION...A long-lived storm cluster is currently moving across
    southeast WI, with a recent history of localized wind gusts in the
    40-45 kt range. While this cluster has weakened somewhat as it has
    moved into a less unstable environment, a notable pressure
    perturbation persists, as noted by a relatively sharp pressure
    rise/fall couplet and earlier easterly 46 kt gust at KMSN.=20

    This cluster may persist overnight as it moves east-southeastward
    along a low-level baroclinic zone, aided by a rather strong
    nocturnal low-level jet. While substantial low-level stability will
    tend to limit a more widespread severe threat, isolated
    strong/damaging gusts remain possible early this morning, especially
    if the ongoing cluster can propagate into a somewhat more moist and
    unstable environment across southwest lower MI.

    ..Dean/Edwards.. 08/06/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6dXUGkMkJlRJI7JJOuCZpjCKXhFMLSLOx1QyOjfglX6bHvjgYRdtCFe36abwt6VlfsQIGkWNe= 8POThwzv9aDoXgXkzs$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...LOT...MKX...

    LAT...LON 42268890 42968876 43178823 43138706 43028626 42778562
    42488564 42258564 41878607 42088743 42268890=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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