• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1664

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jul 17 02:18:52 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 170218
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 170218=20
    NJZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-170345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1664
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0918 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

    Areas affected...Portions of the Delmarva region

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 548...

    Valid 170218Z - 170345Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 548
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Damaging winds remain likely across eastern Maryland and
    into Delaware and southern New Jersey. WW 548 has been locally
    extended in time to address this potential.

    DISCUSSION...The line of storms that has recently crossed from
    eastern PA into northern and central NJ has shown a gradual
    weakening trend in IR imagery and lightning trends - likely the
    result of an undercutting outflow noted in regional radar imagery.
    As such, the severe threat for much of this line appears to be
    waning. However, further south across central to eastern MD, IR
    imagery continues to show intensification of convection to the west
    of Chesapeake Bay. The environment downstream of this activity
    appears to be only modestly capped based on a modified 00 UTC WAL
    sounding. While deep-layer wind shear remains marginal (around 25
    knots based on the sounding), approximately 2000 J/kg MLCAPE remains
    in place, which will support the potential for additional
    intensification of somewhat organized clusters as storms move east
    into DE and southern NJ. Wind gusts between 45-55 mph appear most
    likely, but severe gusts will remain possible. WW 548 has been
    extended in time until 03 UTC when these storms should reach the
    coast.

    ..Moore.. 07/17/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8UkPqGubdQaZmv3Bd1t7kUCr7HWM0KZBSDM2j5XQN3Xvf13M0XAYOvjdrCqceGgTJlnUYFgcP= DGFYNuhEkfwCZMZQQw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

    LAT...LON 38627647 38797659 39047657 39307635 39457594 39497552
    39507521 39557493 39507468 39387454 39257451 38977489
    38807503 38547504 38517531 38497577 38577621 38627647=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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