ACUS11 KWNS 140154
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140153=20
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-140400-
Mesoscale Discussion 1604
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0853 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024
Areas affected...Southeast Montana into western South Dakota
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 525...
Valid 140153Z - 140400Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 525
continues.
SUMMARY...Downstream watch issuance into western South Dakota will
likely be needed in near future as a cluster of severe thunderstorms
continues to organize across southeast Montana.
DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery continues to show a pair of
semi-discrete supercells migrating across southeastern MT. This
cluster has recently produced wind damage in Miles City, MT,
including a 72 mph measured wind gust. Velocity data from KGGW and
KBLX continue to show well pronounced mid-level mesocyclones, but
gradual upscale growth remains anticipated as these cells approach
the western Dakotas. Storm track trends over the past 30 minutes
show this cluster beginning to track more southeasterly as it
encounters a buoyancy gradient draped from southeast MT into
west-central SD. Continued propagation along this gradient appears
likely with a gradual increase in severe wind potential still
anticipated. Storm track timing estimates based on the recently
observed motion, as well as HRRR timing forecasts, suggest this
cluster should reach the SD border between 03-04 UTC, so downstream
watch issuance into SD will likely be needed prior to that time.
..Moore.. 07/14/2024
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5coo0IoqL1ZVqMPUuFe6xrrFu6bWdrH72eIAvWvt6fuWLLfGsUNVFLGZuEwLH4IVet9QLUKKA= KCn4VmH9UOiFKBWOww$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...
LAT...LON 45610585 45860597 46090595 46350573 46460544 46540517
46560492 46540450 45600151 45310115 45020099 44690102
44370121 44050144 43770191 43610233 43550279 43590317
43710341 44110398 45610585=20
=3D =3D =3D
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