ACUS11 KWNS 122140
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122140=20
INZ000-ILZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-122315-
Mesoscale Discussion 1585
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0440 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024
Areas affected...Far northeast Arkansas into southern Illinois and
far southwest Indiana
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20
Valid 122140Z - 122315Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A localized threat for isolated hail and damaging winds
may continue for the next 1-2 hours across far northeast Arkansas
into southern Illinois and far southwest Indiana. In general, the
severe threat is expected to wane heading into the evening hours.
DISCUSSION...Regional radar composites and GOES visible imagery show
a clear convective cold pool expanding across the lower OH River
Valley region with convection largely struggling to remain sustained
(largely owing to weak environmental shear and storm motions into
the cold pool). However, over the past 30 minutes, a couple of
brief, but relatively intense updrafts have been noted in IR
cloud-top temperatures. MRMS hail metrics suggest hail may be
approaching severe limits, and the overall thermodynamic environment
on the periphery of the cold pool (characterized by over 2000 J/kg
MLCAPE and somewhat steep lapse rates in the lowest 1-2 km) may
support damaging downburst winds. Ambient lift along the outflow
boundary and ahead of a weak MCV over southeast MO may support
additional convection over the next 1-2 hours, but storm longevity
(and the overall severe threat) is expected to remain fairly
limited.
..Moore/Gleason.. 07/12/2024
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9wue4eOSRq6oeXtaOMGtqCHhIebzuCzfOHlMk6w0x12N_fBATTcJGE_MP547IHoKQT03SXxRF= cNCOP6WB-pYt1ffzSU$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...
LAT...LON 38508743 38328771 37998802 37548811 37008821 36728848
36568909 36179004 36179077 36169121 36539134 36839120
37179041 37518984 37948958 38188946 38488942 38748915
38978878 39068847 39058804 38948760 38788743 38508743=20
=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at
cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)