• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1539

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jul 5 18:48:11 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 051848
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 051847=20
    MIZ000-051945-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1539
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0147 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024

    Areas affected...LP of Michigan

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 051847Z - 051945Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A few storms may produce severe hail/wind gusts, however,
    watch issuance is not anticipated.

    DISCUSSION...Visible satellite trends show an area of clearing
    across portions of the LP of Michigan as residual convection begins
    to move east of the region. The resulting surface heating has
    resulted in 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE, with scattered storms developing.
    This trend is expected to continue for the remainder of the
    afternoon. Despite the weak instability, effective deep-layer shear
    of 40-45 kts should promote storm organization, with severe hail and
    damaging wind gusts possible with the strongest cells. Severe storm
    coverage is anticipated to remain somewhat isolated/transient, and
    therefore, watch issuance is unlikely for the region at this time.

    ..Karstens/Guyer.. 07/05/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8MhirYqT-KETXJkd7ZvlLFty19G0_5d3LxepmsVKcjC1eXthLfxKaGU7pOc4NlqFvwcZIgRWM= OvT26wTVu1viLW2_jI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...

    LAT...LON 43278350 42238487 41898572 43638589 44958580 45568507
    45228354 44348306 43278350=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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