• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1513

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jul 2 22:14:15 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 022214
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 022213=20
    ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-022345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1513
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0513 PM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024

    Areas affected...portions of eastern Iowa into extreme northeastern Missouri...extreme western Illinois

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 497...

    Valid 022213Z - 022345Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 497 continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 497.
    Severe gusts and QLCS tornadoes are possible with an MCS over the
    next few hours.

    DISCUSSION...A mature QLCS is moving eastward across eastern Iowa
    into far northern MO amid strong deep-layer shear and buoyancy (i.e.
    50-60 kts of effective bulk shear and 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE). On the
    MCS leading line, multiple mesovortices have developed, showing up
    to 40 kt rotational velocities, suggesting that low-level
    circulations are strong enough to support damaging gusts and
    potential tornadogenesis. The DVN VAD profiler shows an appreciably
    large and curved hodograph, with over 300 m2/s2 0-3 km SRH, which
    would certainly support additional tornado potential when also
    considering ample available buoyancy. At the moment, southeastern
    Iowa, which is the near the apex of the bowing QLCS, has the best
    short-term tornado potential.

    ..Squitieri.. 07/02/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9VD2CfPod0j9Xivkj9q3GfskN63NDBxYoZAtMouswD9jt2mHubYMw8t9FmmRUcIICmkq-N-Es= eWSfB8q22-DMdpfHSs$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

    LAT...LON 40369321 41219225 41649193 42259151 42449102 42439032
    42178992 41758982 41338994 40749043 40439095 40239200
    40169278 40369321=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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