• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1208

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jun 9 00:04:47 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 090004
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 090004=20
    KSZ000-090130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1208
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0704 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024

    Areas affected...The western half of Kansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

    Valid 090004Z - 090130Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be issued for
    parts of the area by 01Z. Primary concerns are significant severe
    gusts up to 80 mph and large hail.

    DISCUSSION...During the next few hours, a mix of supercells and
    bowing line segments currently tracking east-southeastward across
    eastern CO (in Severe Thunderstorm Watch 398) will continue across
    the western half of Kansas. Current expectation is for much of the
    ongoing activity to congeal into organized clusters as they continue
    eastward into tonight -- given strong/persistent outflow generation.
    The downstream environment features middle/upper 80s temperatures
    amid middle/upper 60s dewpoints beneath an EML/steep lapse rate
    plume. The resultant moderate/strong surface-based instability
    should support a continued severe risk with eastward extent into
    tonight. Around 50 kt of westerly effective shear should also favor
    organized clusters capable of significant winds gusts (up to 80 mph)
    and instances of large hail. It is still unclear if one consolidated
    MCS can develop, but if this scenario unfolds, more widespread
    severe wind can be expected. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely
    be issued by 01Z for much of the area.

    ..Weinman/Bunting.. 06/09/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8bK0aGXUNy7uowE6civyedIv49jMVcm9wE4DlCIDpnEtoX81LGhAPBGZW0uzMDZtQqYkgUyh1= 8zHlRu4g0tVfpUXmWo$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

    LAT...LON 37630201 38290200 39020184 39480154 39670132 39650069
    39139793 38259723 37529717 37089726 37089948 37110071
    37240164 37630201=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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