ACUS11 KWNS 131739
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131739=20
LAZ000-TXZ000-131945-
Mesoscale Discussion 0767
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024
Areas affected...southern Texas into southwestern Louisiana
Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20
Valid 131739Z - 131945Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Severe threat to continue downstream of WW235. Downstream
watch will likely be needed soon.
DISCUSSION...A mix of clustered cells and supercell structures have
been ongoing across portions of south-central Texas producing
instances of quarter to half dollar size hail. Ahead of this
activity, dew points are in the upper 70s to near 80 with MLCAPE
around 3000-4000 J/kg. This, in combination with strong deep layer
shear around 45-50 kts will continue to support supercells capable
of very large hail (2-3.5 in). Trends suggest thunderstorms will
gradually grow upscale while moving along a stalled front through
the late afternoon/evening. This will lead to an increase in
damaging wind threat, with potential for wind speeds 70+ mph and a
tornado or two. A downstream watch will likely be needed to cover
this threat.
..Thornton/Thompson.. 05/13/2024
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9QmoPTZ8JqkGGDSA8WweacZV2XDbRIwPKZB_GZZqNgShvmg6aK8tP9M4Yys-fNsMiahAJlEyX= 5wxhpI6-horAXwB_Ts$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...
LAT...LON 30499682 31059640 31649528 31639459 31569350 31449238
31239172 30439144 30169141 29819142 29489145 29059155
28739266 28749419 28719532 28799611 29029668 29599684
30499682=20
=3D =3D =3D
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