• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0766

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon May 13 16:46:10 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 131646
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 131645=20
    TXZ000-131815-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0766
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1145 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

    Areas affected...Portions of south-central TX

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 235...

    Valid 131645Z - 131815Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 235
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A threat for very large hail will continue with ongoing
    supercells. Severe/damaging winds should become an increasing
    concern this afternoon as convection attempts to grow upscale into a
    bowing cluster.

    DISCUSSION...An intense supercell is ongoing to the south of the San
    Antonio TX metro as of 1635Z. With extreme instability present
    (4000+ J/kg MUCAPE), along with strong deep-layer shear of 45-50 kt,
    a supercell mode will likely be maintained in the short term. Steep
    mid-level lapse rates noted on area 12Z soundings from DRT/CRP/BRO
    will aid robust updraft accelerations and a threat for large to very
    large hail, potentially up to 2-3 inches in diameter. To the north
    of this supercell into central TX, destructive updraft interference/interactions have occurred, with a messier storm mode
    observed and a lesser threat for large hail. With time, expectations
    are for convection to gradually grow upscale into a small bowing
    cluster as activity continues eastward through the afternoon. A
    greater threat for severe/damaging winds of 60-70 mph should exist
    once this mode transition occurs.

    ..Gleason.. 05/13/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_egsXkRsEWNc5Wurywt8D2IY9qZEPWvMqEN3OsaEKMzqO8veLzRpp6Oa5XVYAKjSQrAP_saC0= vXKP9TfcrHNgU23j7Y$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...

    LAT...LON 29369992 29849930 29949802 29829692 29259685 28799707
    28559734 28679902 28679989 28990016 29369992=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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