• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0747

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri May 10 17:05:43 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 101705
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 101705=20
    NCZ000-SCZ000-101930-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0747
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1205 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

    Areas affected...the central and eastern Carolinas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 101705Z - 101930Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...Scattered severe storms are likely to develop after 18Z
    over the central Carolinas, producing damaging hail and wind through
    early evening as they eventually exit the Atlantic Coast.

    DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a deepening trough extending
    from southeast VA across central NC and into northern SC, with
    temperatures heating into the upper 70s F. Dewpoints remain in the
    60s F, but may gradually mix down a few degrees by peak heating.

    Morning soundings show steep midlevel lapse rates in place, as well
    as ample deep-layer shear with mid to high level flow of 50 to 100
    kt. This combination is resulting in a favorable environment for
    large hail, and perhaps a few fast-moving bowing structures with
    damaging winds.

    As of 17Z, visible imagery is already showing developing towering CU
    over northern SC and into central NC. The presence of cirrus from
    the MCS to the south may have slowed heating a bit, but clearing
    should continue, aiding destabilization.

    Scattered to numerous storms are expected to form over the next few
    hours along the boundary, with both cells and congealing line
    segments possible. Some of the more isolated hail storms may produce
    large amounts of 1.00 to 1.75" hail, with cold, severe downdrafts
    possible as well.

    ..Jewell/Thompson.. 05/10/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7OkoMI3tKGwcgEJD1DkCDcRcIq0J4Xf0b6xw2pM48jz9CODehk6mp2GbFTM6ioPTme83Qt8RZ= lRYXelvVijg1WOPc3I$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...

    LAT...LON 36477580 36067555 35617536 35267540 34297619 33587712
    33267817 33177918 33237939 33558008 33958119 34068173
    34308213 34608220 34778200 34858121 35068026 35367944
    35677864 35867814 36307714 36477580=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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