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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0729

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu May 9 16:57:59 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 091657
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 091657=20
    TXZ000-OKZ000-091930-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0729
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1157 AM CDT Thu May 09 2024

    Areas affected...much of northwest into northern Texas and toward
    the Red River

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 091657Z - 091930Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms are expected to increase in coverage through the
    afternoon, with very large hail possible from northwest into
    northern Texas. Damaging winds will also be possible.

    DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a stationary front extending
    from near Shreveport LA westward across the Metroplex and toward a
    weak surface low near San Angelo, TX. The air mass is very moist and
    unstable across the entire region, as can be seen from the 12Z FWD
    sounding where elevated MUCAPE north of the boundary is around 4000
    J/kg with steep midlevel lapse rates.

    Further indicative of the quality of the elevated instability north
    of the front are robust cells already forming over Young and Archer
    Counties, which are situated atop relatively cool/dry surface
    northeasterlies. Deep-layer shear may be effectively augmented for
    cells moving eastward along the boundary later today as the air mass
    along it heats, and around with 60 kt shear. Severe cells are also
    expected to form near the weak surface low or close to the
    dryline/stationary front intersection, with both very large hail and
    damaging winds as storms increase in coverage.

    ..Jewell/Smith.. 05/09/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9CEVVj4Em_Mn0VjgGuFY_De9-Q_XRjxrvPlDd734fVggXFlLxH4diyu3GwYsLexVWtr3cE3pA= VqT5irjxdTwJhoprT4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

    LAT...LON 32829971 33919838 34049730 33989676 33669652 33129647
    31819694 31429746 31329796 31189874 31159934 31140004
    31390029 31830036 32260018 32829971=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu May 9 17:10:58 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 091710
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 091710 COR
    TXZ000-OKZ000-091930-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0729
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1210 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024

    Areas affected...much of northwest into northern Texas and toward
    the Red River

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 091710Z - 091930Z

    CORRECTED FOR WORDING

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms are expected to increase in coverage through the
    afternoon, with very large hail possible from northwest into
    northern Texas. Damaging winds will also be possible.

    DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a stationary front extending
    from near Shreveport LA westward across the Metroplex and toward a
    weak surface low near San Angelo, TX. The air mass is very moist and
    unstable across the entire region, as can be seen from the 12Z FWD
    sounding where elevated MUCAPE north of the boundary is around 4000
    J/kg with steep midlevel lapse rates.

    Further indicative of the quality of the elevated instability north
    of the front are robust cells already forming over Young and Archer
    Counties, which are situated atop relatively cool/dry surface
    northeasterlies. Deep-layer shear may be effectively augmented for
    cells moving eastward along the boundary later today as the air mass
    along it heats, with around 60 kt shear. Severe cells are also
    expected to form near the weak surface low or close to the
    dryline/stationary front intersection, with both very large hail and
    damaging winds as storms increase in coverage.

    ..Jewell/Smith.. 05/09/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_Wext-F7oUU3IwVhdF4bL2CLBN6xBilrI25sLtcY4xqYnSqdOpwI_ovq4BXKMoBbr3tzSMS6Q= sVV9P1x-By-gtF-1Es$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

    LAT...LON 32829971 33919838 34049730 33989676 33669652 33129647
    31819694 31429746 31329796 31189874 31159934 31140004
    31390029 31830036 32260018 32829971=20


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

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