ACUS11 KWNS 081817
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081816=20
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-082045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0701
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0116 PM CDT Wed May 08 2024

Areas affected...much of eastern Oklahoma...western Arkansas...and
far northeast Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

Valid 081816Z - 082045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered severe storms with very large hail and a few
tornadoes (possibly strong) are expected by late afternoon from
eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas, and into parts of northern
Texas.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery as well as surface
observations show a cold front extending from far southeast KS and
northeast OK southward toward the Red River. Additionally, a dryline
extends roughly from just west of the Metroplex southwestward
towards Del Rio TX.

A very moist and unstable air mass exists across the region, with
MLCAPE of 3500-4000 J/kg common. Low-level convergence continues to
increase along the boundaries, with winds gusting to 15-20 kt out of
the west behind them.

Effective deep-layer shear of 45-50 kt across the entire length of
the boundaries, combined with the very strong instability will favor
the development of scattered supercells, potentially producing 3-4"
diameter hail by early evening. Tornadoes, a few of which may be
strong, will also be possible given the tremendous thermodynamic
energy, favorable storm mode, and sufficient 0-1 SRH over 100 m2/s2.

..Jewell/Smith.. 05/08/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9Mf2LCLvF-TQQBaEXoi2nHzRc1srjnMfGrJXOsNEHZwBDqV_L169236f6XHBNPQd4bhCVrJ6h= Uj3ITx5bCqw4KScXZE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 36299547 36729507 36949473 36999410 36959361 36879331
36629325 36329333 35279388 33749495 33029562 32959630
33249665 33939658 34979612 36299547=20


=3D =3D =3D
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