ACUS11 KWNS 020029
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020028=20
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-020200-
Mesoscale Discussion 0595
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0728 PM CDT Wed May 01 2024
Areas affected...Far Northeast CO...Western and Central KS
Concerning...Tornado Watch 172...
Valid 020028Z - 020200Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 172 continues.
SUMMARY...Supercells over western KS are expected to persist, with
the potential for all severe hazards. An additional severe threat
may exist farther north across northwest and north-central KS,
downstream of the cluster coming out of northeast CO, and additional
watch may be needed.
DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery continues to show pair of
well-organized supercells over Logan and Gove Counties in western
KS. These supercells are very close to the warm front extending from
west to east across the KS, which is likely contributing to both
low-level moisture convergence and low-level vorticity. Interactions
between these two storms may contribute to some fluctuations in
storm intensity, but the overall environment is expected to remain
supportive of storm persistence. Additionally, increasing low-level
flow over the next few hours will lengthen low-level hodographs,
with the low-level kinematic environment becoming more favorable for
tornadoes.
Regional radar imagery also shows a more linear, forward-propagating
cluster of storms moving out of far northeast CO towards far
northwest KS. This activity is expected to continue moving
southeastward, with the strengthening low-level flow and associated
isentropic ascent contributing to storm persistence. Current
trajectory takes this cluster north of the warm front, but some
interaction with this frontal boundary could occur with more
southeastward extent. Hail appears to be the predominant risk with
this cluster, although some damaging gusts are possible as well,
particularly with eastward/southeastward extent. A watch may be
needed north of Tornado Watch 172 to address this threat.
..Mosier/Guyer.. 05/02/2024
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6ioRwclGUvS-ykRtKxdwlupH0JWv1OR4ABLmclqbVrqxAGi4JxrtLnSIQqu66WyM2ZpIdxnMs= DOv7UjSgPVopVLsVZY$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GID...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 39550240 40060155 39719906 38499942 38420118 39550240=20
=3D =3D =3D
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