ACUS11 KWNS 272041
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272040=20
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-272215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0545
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0340 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Areas affected...eastern Kansas into northern Missouri and southern
Iowa

Concerning...Tornado Watch 145...147...

Valid 272040Z - 272215Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 145, 147 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for brief tornadoes as well as damaging outflow
winds and hail continues within the watch areas, and may spread
east, necessitating additional watch areas.

DISCUSSION...Supercells formed along a retreating boundary/warm
front which now extends from northeast KS and northwest MO, and from
southwest IA into southern WI. Low-level shear is maximized near
this boundary with 0-1 SRH near 150 m2/s2 and weaker values into the
open warm sector.

Heating continues along the boundary, and the 18Z DVN sounding shows
ample instability and lapse rates to sustain strong to severe
storms, with generally unidirectional shear profiles. However, only
minimal low-level hodograph augmentation may be necessary for a
tornado risk with any supercells that move across northern MO/IA
through the afternoon. As such, the threat may eventually extend
beyond WW 147, and another watch and/or extension may become
necessary depending on trends.

Farther south into eastern KS and western MO, outflow from initial
activity extends from northeast KS into north-central OK, while an
unstable air mass remains just to the east. MLCAPE over 2500 J/kg as
well as ample deep-layer shear will support supercells and or
damaging bows this evening, with all modes of severe possible.

..Jewell.. 04/27/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5f4JZJfhug8YMHCXqHdCAwhhjuTRtk1pIJ46GxXK0iewEDi3GOyKc-I7G9bP9btZe0LlOO-gn= QTZi_L4zCwsnYe_vO8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON 39769312 39559354 39019394 38299431 38129512 38169538
38419551 38809553 39339566 39619617 39739625 39879618
40969460 42199236 42309089 41789025 41039038 40319140
39769312=20


=3D =3D =3D
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