ACUS11 KWNS 031806
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031806=20
FLZ000-032030-
Mesoscale Discussion 0186
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1206 PM CST Sun Mar 03 2024
Areas affected...central and southern Florida
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20
Valid 031806Z - 032030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered strong thunderstorm development appears probable
across much of the interior into southeastern peninsular Florida
through 3-5 PM EST, accompanied by small to marginally severe hail
and a risk for localized damaging wind gusts.
DISCUSSION...Weak deep-layer warm advection appears underway across
much of the Florida peninsula, with low-amplitude mid-level
troughing in the process of gradually shifting offshore of the
Atlantic coast. However, around 500 mb, temperatures are still
generally around -13 to -15 C, with one lingering axis of colder
temperatures forecast to spread across the interior peninsula into
Atlantic coastal areas through 21-23Z.
Beneath this environment, daytime heating of a relatively moist
boundary layer with surface dew points ranging from the mid 60s to
near 70 F is contributing to substantive destabilization, with CAPE
increasing through 1000-1500+ J/kg. Although low-level convergence,
and forcing for upward vertical motion in general, appears weak,
deepening convection with widely scattered thunderstorm development
is underway across the interior through southeastern peninsula
coastal areas. And a gradual further increase and intensification
of storms seems probable through mid to late afternoon, as potential instability peaks.
Although flow in the lowest 5-6 km AGL is generally weak, stronger
flow (50+ kt) in higher levels may still enhance thunderstorm
development, and contribute to potential for small to marginally
severe hail in the stronger cells developing this afternoon. As
low-level lapse rates continue to steepen, heavy precipitation
loading and latent cooling aided by melting hail probably will also
contribute to potential for isolated locally damaging downbursts.
..Kerr/Hart.. 03/03/2024
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4f8R6X7Qr4DEnsRCqKMFfgIYCCFSNU7vQU4eq3ROprA0Za63MqsmXauTLFYBZxjKKgSjwIXMM= 5OoCPCWzJ0mBgx-5jA$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...
LAT...LON 29618263 29658184 28808139 28348083 27778056 27138002
25998046 26348091 26608135 27628165 28158220 28698224
29618263=20
=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at
cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)