Hello Everybody,
The coronavirus in the US is moving almost as fast
as Speedy Gonzales himself.
Despite the wall The Orange One is trying to build.
Just look at the numbers, as compiled by a blogger
somewhere in the blogosphere -
Days to Double
--------------
In each state.
On the 24th, 25 states gained 25% or more
in new cases over the day before, and 25 states
plus DC increased by less than 25%.
At 25% daily increase, it takes about 3 days
to double. By the 15th day after the start,
that's a 28 times increase.
On the 29th, 18 states reported daily increases
of 25% or more, 23 states reported increases of
15-24.99 percent, and 9 plus DC reported increases
between 5-14.99 percent.
At a 15% doubling rate, that takes about 5 days
to double, or 8 times increase after 15 days.
IF we were continuing to have daily increase
of 25%, in 30 days the increase would be 784-fold,
or over 100 million cases and 1.5 million deaths.
I'm hoping for a 15% average; in 30 days this
would be a 64-fold increase, or about 10 million
cases and about 120000 deaths.
BUT most states aren't there yet.
That's why we need to continue the restrictions.
-=end of blogger rant=-
Let's do a little math.
I hear there are several scientists in this forum.
Certainly at least one of them is good at working with numbers.
The US has a population of some 330 million people.
How many people does it take to become infected by the virus
in order for the herd immunity threshold to be reached?
That is without a vaccine having been found.
herd immunity threshold = 1 - (1/Ro)
Where Ro = 2.5 for the coronavirus
Coronavirus Ro estimated to be between 2-3.
At 2.5 that would be 60% of population.
At 3.0 that would be much higher percentage of population.
The way I look at it, by the time a vaccine is found,
if a vaccine can be found, it won't really matter.
At least not for anybody in the USA.
May we all RIP.
--Lee
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