Reducing tropical cyclone impacts: The double benefit of climate
protection through both limiting and delaying global warming

Date:
September 27, 2021
Source:
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
Summary:
Increasing global warming from currently one to two degrees Celsius
by mid-century might lead to about 25 percent more people put
at risk by tropical cyclones, a new study finds. Already today,
hurricanes and typhoons are among the most destructive natural
disasters worldwide and potentially threaten about 150 million
people each year. Adding to climate change, population growth
further drives tropical cyclone exposure, especially in coastal
areas of East African countries and the United States. Considering
the joint impact of climate change and population growth provides
an untapped potential to protect a changing world population.



FULL STORY ==========================================================================
"If we add population growth to two degree Celsius global warming, in
2050 we could even see an increase of ca. 40 percent more people exposed
to cyclones," says Tobias Geiger, researcher at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and the Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD), lead
author of the new study to be published in Nature Climate Change. "As the global population is projected to peak around mid-century, more people
will face more intense cyclones, due to climate change -- putting that
higher population at greater risk."

==========================================================================
The global ambition is to limit warming to well below two degrees, yet
compared to unmitigated climate change even reaching two degree Celsius
of global warming 50 years later could lead to a quite different outcome,
as an interdisciplinary team of scientists from Germany, Switzerland and
the US found in a computer-based analysis: Until 2100, population models project an unforced, regular declining population in cyclone prone areas
on a global scale. This would partially compensate for the additional
exposure caused by warming as Geiger underlines: "If we rapidly reduce greenhouse gas emissions and reach two degree Celsius of global warming
only in 2100, this would limit the increase of people in danger of
cyclones to 20 percent. This finding is key as it shows that reducing
global warming potentially postpones severe tropical cyclone impacts to
the late second half of the century, when there would be far fewer people
at risk." Timing is key when assessing exposure to cyclones In the study,
the scientists analysed the joint impacts of demographic development and climate change on people exposed to tropical cyclones -- and found that
timing of when certain warming levels are reached becomes crucial.

The results are even more obvious on the country level, explains Johannes Gu"tschow: "Our model shows, with unprecedented detail, that in 2050
all countries at high risk of tropical cyclones are projected to see
a rise in exposure. Due to the projected population growth, we found
exposure changes of nearly 300 percent in some East African countries,
up to 100 percent in the United States and also a strong increase for
the Arabian Peninsula. For the US, this will most likely result in
more cyclone damages, while other strongly affected world regions might
also face more poverty and forced migration." Under less rapid warming scenarios this picture changes: Delaying two degree of warming to 2080
or 2100 -- in line with a projected population decline -- would result
in a reduction of exposed population in the Caribbean and in East Asia,
in particular in Japan, China, and the Korean peninsula compared to
a scenario where a two degree global warming would occur already in
2050. Johannes Gu"tschow adds: "Basically, our computer model can
calculate the impact of any given warming scenario, on a global and
country scale, and its implications for the number of people at risk by tropical cyclones. Our findings most likely also hold true for a variety
of other climate extremes whose occurrence only depends on absolute
warming and not on the timing." Informing the UN climate summit COP26
on re-considering national contributions This can also inform decisions
at the 2021 UN world climate summit, COP26, which will be an occasion to re-consider the insufficient Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)
under the Paris Agreement: "The current NDCs scenario would lead to about
two degrees of warming around mid-century and a continuous rise of warming thereafter," says Katja Frieler, co-lead of PIK's Research Department on Transformation Pathways. "In line with the NDCs, the number of people at
risk of cyclones would keep rising throughout the century, for instance
in the hurricane-prone regions of the US." Frieler underlines: "Emission reductions that would limit global warming to 1.5 degree Celsius could cumulatively protect over 1.8 billion people from exposure to tropical
cyclones until the end of this century compared to the warming under
currently proposed emission reductions. It is thus high time to rapidly
reduce greenhouse gas emissions to keep as many people safe as possible." ========================================================================== Story Source: Materials provided by Potsdam_Institute_for_Climate_Impact_Research_(PIK).

Note: Content may be edited for style and length.


========================================================================== Journal Reference:
1. Tobias Geiger, Johannes Gu"tschow, David N. Bresch, Kerry Emanuel,
Katja
Frieler. Double benefit of limiting global warming for
tropical cyclone exposure. Nature Climate Change, 2021 DOI:
10.1038/s41558-021-01157-9 ==========================================================================

Link to news story: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/09/210927110516.htm

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