Increased snowfall will offset sea level rise from melting Antarctic ice
sheet

Date:
August 19, 2021
Source:
University of Bristol
Summary:
A new study predicts that any sea level rise in the world's most
southern continent will be countered by an increase in snowfall,
associated with a warmer Polar atmosphere. Using modern methods to
calculate projected changes to sea levels, researchers discovered
that the two ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica respond
differently, reflecting their very distinct local climates.



FULL STORY ==========================================================================
A new study predicts that any sea level rise in the world's most southern continent will be countered by an increase in snowfall, associated with
a warmer Polar atmosphere. Using modern methods to calculate projected
changes to sea levels, researchers discovered that the two ice sheets
of Greenland and Antarctica respond differently, reflecting their very
distinct local climates.


==========================================================================
The paper, published today in Geophysical Research Letters, is based on
the new generation of climate models which are used in the newly published Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report, reviewing scientific, technical, and socio-economic information regarding climate change.

The project brought together over 60 researchers from 44 institutions
to produce, for the first time, process-based community projections of
the sea level rise from the ice sheets. This particular paper focusses
on one aspect of the overall project which is how the new generation of
climate model projections used in the current IPCC assessments differ
from the early generation in their impact on the ice sheets.

Professor Tony Payne, Head of Bristol's School of Geographical Sciences
said the team were trying to establish whether the projected sea level
rise from the new generation of climate models was different from the
previous generation.

"The new models generally predict more warming than the previous
generation but we wanted to understand what this means for the ice
sheets." he said. "The increased warming of the new models results in
more melt from the Greenland ice sheet and higher sea level rise by a
factor of around 1.5 at 2100.

"There is little change, however, in projected sea level rise from the Antarctic ice sheet. This is because increased mass loss triggered by
warmer oceans is countered by mass gain by increased snowfall which
is associated with the warmer Polar atmosphere." The recent findings
suggest that society should plan for higher sea levels, and match with virtually all previous estimates of sea level rise, in that scientists
expect sea levels to continue to rise well beyond 2100, most likely at
an accelerating rate.

Prof Payne added: "Predicting the mass budget of the ice sheets from
estimates of global warming is difficult and a great many of the processes involved require further attention.

"Discovering that warmer climates do not affect Antarctic mass budget,
in particular, warrants further examination because this is based on
large changes in snowfall and marine melt balancing." "One of the main
things to take away from this, interestingly, is that the response of
two ice sheets and what impact global heating has on them is different
and depends heavily on their local conditions," said Prof Payne.

========================================================================== Story Source: Materials provided by University_of_Bristol. Note: Content
may be edited for style and length.


========================================================================== Journal Reference:
1. Antony J. Payne, Sophie Nowicki, Ayako Abe‐Ouchi, Ce'cile
Agosta,
Patrick Alexander, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay‐Davis, Andy
Aschwanden, Alice Barthel, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Reinhard Calov,
Christopher Chambers, Youngmin Choi, Richard Cullather, Joshua
Cuzzone, Christophe Dumas, Tamsin L. Edwards, Denis Felikson,
Xavier Fettweis, Benjamin K. Galton‐Fenzi, Heiko Goelzer,
Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory,
Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J.

Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain,
Thomas Kleiner, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Eric Larour, Sebastien Le
clec'h, Victoria Lee, Gunter Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Christopher
M. Little, Daniel P. Lowry, Mathieu Morlighem, Isabel Nias,
Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aure'lien Quiquet,
Ronja Reese, Martin Ru"ckamp, Nicole‐Jeanne Schlegel,
He'le`ne Seroussi, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Donald Slater,
Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Lev Tarasov,
Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik van de Wal, Michiel
van den Broeke, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, Thomas
Zwinger. Future sea level change under CMIP5 and CMIP6 scenarios
from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Geophysical Research
Letters, 2021; DOI: 10.1029/2020GL091741 ==========================================================================

Link to news story: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/08/210819102719.htm

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