Global eradication of COVID-19 should not be dismissed, new analysis
finds

Date:
August 11, 2021
Source:
University of Otago
Summary:
Eradicating COVID-19 across the globe is theoretically more feasible
than for polio but much less so than it was for smallpox, according
to an analysis by New Zealand researchers.



FULL STORY ========================================================================== Eradicating COVID-19 across the globe is theoretically more feasible
than for polio but much less so than it was for smallpox, according to
an analysis by New Zealand researchers.


==========================================================================
The researchers, writing in the international journal BMJ Global Health,
ranked the feasibility of eradicating the three diseases based on
technical, socio- political and economic factors.

Smallpox, which was declared eradicated in 1980, had the highest average
score for eradication feasibility. It had an average score of 2.7 on
a three-point scale across 17 variables. In comparison COVID-19 had an
average score of 1.6 and polio an average of 1.5.

Professor Nick Wilson from the University of Otago, Wellington, says
their analysis puts eradicating COVID-19 into the realms of possibility
in terms of technical feasibility.

He says the combination of vaccination programmes, public health measures
and the global interest in combating the disease all contribute to making eradication possible.

"Elimination of COVID-19 at the country level has been achieved and
sustained for long periods in various parts of the Asia Pacific region,
which suggests that global eradication is possible." Vaccination
programmes have been responsible for the global eradication of smallpox
and two of the three serotypes of poliovirus. Some other diseases are
close to being eradicated without the use of vaccines, with China recently becoming the 40th country to be certified malaria-free.



==========================================================================
In ranking the feasibility of eradication for the three diseases, the researchers took into account a wide range of factors, including the availability of safe and effective vaccines, the possibility of lifelong immunity, the impact of public health measures, effective infection
control messaging by governments, political and public concern about
the infection and public acceptance of infection control measures.

Professor Wilson says while there has been a focus on the need to reach
herd immunity to overcome COVID-19, population immunity may not be
essential to combat the disease, with smallpox having been eradicated
through ring- vaccination programmes which target the contacts of those infected.

The researchers say the challenges of eradicating COVID-19 relative to
smallpox and polio include poor vaccine acceptance in some countries
and the emergence of variants of the pandemic virus that may be more transmissible or able to evade the protection from vaccines.

But Professor Wilson says the virus will eventually reach the limit of
its ability to mutate into more infectious forms, and new vaccines will
likely be formulated to deal with evolving strains of the disease.

Other challenges include the high cost of vaccinating the world's
population and upgrading health systems, and achieving international cooperation in the face of aggressive anti-science movements and vaccine nationalism.



========================================================================== Professor Wilson says while the pandemic virus may infect wild and
domestic animal populations, this is unlikely to be a serious challenge
to eradication.

"Wild animal infections with SARS-CoV-2 appear to be fairly rare to
date and when companion animals become infected, they don't appear to
reinfect humans." A co-author of the article, Professor Michael Baker
from the University's Department of Public Health, says it may be possible
to harness global concern about the pandemic.

"The massive scale of the health, social and economic impacts of COVID-19
in most of the world has generated unprecedented global interest in
disease control and massive investment in vaccination programmes.

"Unlike smallpox and polio, control of COVID-19 also benefits from
the added impact of public health measures, such as border controls,
social distancing, contact tracing and mask wearing, which can be very effective if well deployed." Professor Baker says upgrading health
systems to target COVID-19 could also help to control other diseases,
and could even aid in eradicating measles.

"When all factors are taken into account, it could be that the benefits
of eradicating COVID-19 outweigh the costs, even if eradication takes
many years and has a significant risk of failure." The researchers say
their work is preliminary and a more in-depth analysis of the costs and benefits of eradicating COVID-19 is needed.

"The World Health Organization or a coalition of national agencies
working collaboratively needs to formally review the feasibility and desirability of attempting COVID-19 eradication on a global basis,"
Professor Baker says.

The researchers note it is important to distinguish between eradication of infection -- the permanent reduction to zero of the worldwide incidence of infection caused by a specific agent as a result of deliberate efforts;
and elimination -- the reduction to zero of the incidence of infection
caused by a specific agent in a defined geographical area as a result
of deliberate efforts.

Elimination of COVID-19 has been achieved and sustained for long
periods in a number of jurisdictions in the Asia-Pacific region (notably
China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Australia and New Zealand) which provides a proof-of-concept that global eradication is technically possible.

========================================================================== Story Source: Materials provided by University_of_Otago. Note: Content
may be edited for style and length.


========================================================================== Journal Reference:
1. Nick Wilson, Osman D Mansoor, Matthew J Boyd, Amanda Kvalsvig,
Michael G
Baker. We should not dismiss the possibility of eradicating
COVID-19: comparisons with smallpox and polio. BMJ Global Health,
2021; 6 (8): e006810 DOI: 10.1136/bmjgh-2021-006810 ==========================================================================

Link to news story: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/08/210811091555.htm

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