Future battery cost: Crucial for the success of the mobility and energy transition

Date:
August 11, 2021
Source:
University of Mu"nster
Summary:
A group of researchers has published a comparative study of battery
cost predictions from the past decade. In the study, assumptions
from more than 50 scientific publications that analyze the costs
of lithium-ion, solid-state, lithium-sulfur and lithium-air
batteries, resulting costs are compared and the academic opinion
is consolidated into a cost trend.



FULL STORY ==========================================================================
For years, there has been a clear downward trend in battery costs. This development is important since batteries, as key components of electric vehicles and stationary energy storage systems, account for the majority
of their cost. Today, these products are not yet fully competitive and
further battery cost reductions are needed to achieve an economically
viable transition to a carbon neutral society. In order to set the right strategic course, accurate battery cost projections are necessary for
policy makers and industry.

Numerous cost projections for battery systems exist in the academic
literature, ranging from below $100 to above $400 per kilowatt-hour
for the year 2030. This uncertainty poses a major challenge for the
development of efficient incentive schemes for electromobility and for the design of profitable future product portfolios of vehicle manufacturers.


==========================================================================
A cross-institutional group of researchers at the University of Mu"nster
has now published a comparative study of battery cost predictions from
the past decade in the journal Energy & Environmental Science. In the
study, assumptions from more than 50 scientific publications that analyze
the costs of lithium- ion, solid-state, lithium-sulfur and lithium-air batteries, resulting costs are compared and the academic opinion is consolidated into a cost trend.

Academia expects battery cost to continue to fall The results show
an overarching expectation of further declining battery costs, even
under pessimistic raw material price scenarios, "Lithium-ion batteries
have not yet reached their cost limit. The regression of system cost expectations shows a reduction to $70 per kilowatt-hour by 2050 -- about
half of today's market prices," explains Lukas Mauler from the Institute
of Business Administration at the Department of Chemistry and Pharmacy
at Mu"nster University and Porsche Consulting GmbH, and lead author of
the published analysis. Scientists expect additional cost potentials
compared to today, especially through advanced battery materials such
as high-energy and high- voltage cathode materials. Further, the studies
show that post-lithium-ion technologies, which are not yet commercialized today, have the potential to become economically competitive.

The forecasting of battery costs has many dimensions Depending on the
research question of the examined publications, different drivers of
battery costs are included in the assessment. Prof. Dr. Jens Leker,
Director of the Institute of Business Administration, explains, "In
addition to battery technology, a large number of other criteria are
reflected in the cost forecasts. These range from the battery production process, plant location and size, to raw material price scenarios. A significant portion of the forecast variance can be attributed to these assumptions." The present study would bring the required transparency
to assess forecast results in a qualified manner. It also contains a
navigator that allows researchers to quickly find suitable studies and
better understand interdependencies.

The detailed results of the comparative study on battery cost forecasting
by Lukas Mauler, Dr. Fabian Duffner, Prof. Dr. Wolfgang G. Zeier,
Institute of Inorganic and Analytical Chemistry at the Department of
Chemistry and Pharmacy, and Prof. Dr. Jens Leker, Institute of Business Administration at the Department of Chemistry and Pharmacy, have been
published as a review article by the Royal Society of Chemistry in the
journal "Energy & Environmental Science".

========================================================================== Story Source: Materials provided by University_of_Mu"nster. Note:
Content may be edited for style and length.


========================================================================== Journal Reference:
1. Lukas Mauler, Fabian Duffner, Wolfgang G. Zeier, Jens Leker. Battery
cost
forecasting: a review of methods and results with an outlook
to 2050.

Energy & Environmental Science, 2021; DOI: 10.1039/D1EE01530C ==========================================================================

Link to news story: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/08/210811131259.htm

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