• Of moon and tides

    From N_Cook@21:1/5 to All on Wed Jan 31 14:16:09 2018
    A quirk of celestial mechanics.
    As the last blood-red , blue-moon, super-moon was 31 March 1866 we'll
    have to wait 55458 days for the next coincidence of the tides in the
    channel , presumably.
    I wonder what conjuction of tidal harmonics gives a 55,458 day repeat.

    The high tides in ports of a large part of the English channel today are
    all the same time. I originally thought there was a problem with big-data http://www.ntslf.org/storm-surges/latest-surge-forecast?port=Dover http://www.ntslf.org/storm-surges/latest-surge-forecast?port=Newhaven http://www.ntslf.org/storm-surges/latest-surge-forecast?port=Portsmouth

    And from the UK Hydrographic office, high tide times today
    Portsmouth,10:53, 23:24
    Newhaven, 10:43 , 23:17
    Dover, 10:44, 23:09

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  • From N_Cook@21:1/5 to All on Wed Jan 31 15:25:16 2018
    On 31/01/2018 14:16, N_Cook wrote:
    A quirk of celestial mechanics.
    As the last blood-red , blue-moon, super-moon was 31 March 1866 we'll
    have to wait 55458 days for the next coincidence of the tides in the
    channel , presumably.
    I wonder what conjuction of tidal harmonics gives a 55,458 day repeat.

    The high tides in ports of a large part of the English channel today are
    all the same time. I originally thought there was a problem with big-data http://www.ntslf.org/storm-surges/latest-surge-forecast?port=Dover http://www.ntslf.org/storm-surges/latest-surge-forecast?port=Newhaven http://www.ntslf.org/storm-surges/latest-surge-forecast?port=Portsmouth

    And from the UK Hydrographic office, high tide times today
    Portsmouth,10:53, 23:24
    Newhaven, 10:43 , 23:17
    Dover, 10:44, 23:09

    Hydrographic Office EasyTide “predictions" for 31st March 1866…

    Portsmouth times LW=04.40 HW=1129 LW=1658 HW=2353
    Dover times Lw=0640 HW=1126 LW=1854 HW=2342

    so once in a blood-red , blue-moon, super-moon

    Now to find out any significance in
    55458= 13x54x79
    or in terms of 18.61 year or 8.85 year normal tide cycles

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  • From Martin Brown@21:1/5 to All on Wed Jan 31 16:17:07 2018
    On 31/01/2018 14:16, N_Cook wrote:
    A quirk of celestial mechanics.
    As the last blood-red , blue-moon, super-moon was 31 March 1866 we'll
    have to wait 55458 days for the next coincidence of the tides in the
    channel , presumably.
    I wonder what conjuction of tidal harmonics gives a 55,458 day repeat.

    It is double the named "Short Callipic Cycle" 2I+S = 75.9y 27729.22d

    27729.22 x 2 = 55458.44 but according to the catalogue is unnamed.

    I = Inex ~29y and S = Saros ~18y

    They are the fundamental periodicities that allow you to catalogue
    eclipse cycles. It will be interesting to see if the strong tides this
    year drive any climatic effects from deep ocean mixing.

    http://www.staff.science.uu.nl/~gent0113/eclipse/eclipsecycles.htm

    Inex gives you an eclipse about the same longitude but opposite latitude
    and 3x Saros gives you about the same eclipse conditions in about the
    same place on the Earth. Or for an overviews and better explanation

    https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEsaros/SEperiodicity.html

    The high tides in ports of a large part of the English channel today are
    all the same time. I originally thought there was a problem with big-data http://www.ntslf.org/storm-surges/latest-surge-forecast?port=Dover http://www.ntslf.org/storm-surges/latest-surge-forecast?port=Newhaven http://www.ntslf.org/storm-surges/latest-surge-forecast?port=Portsmouth

    And from the UK Hydrographic office, high tide times today Portsmouth,10:53,    23:24
    Newhaven, 10:43    ,    23:17
    Dover, 10:44,    23:09


    --
    Regards,
    Martin Brown

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  • From N_Cook@21:1/5 to Martin Brown on Wed Jan 31 18:03:14 2018
    On 31/01/2018 16:17, Martin Brown wrote:
    On 31/01/2018 14:16, N_Cook wrote:
    A quirk of celestial mechanics.
    As the last blood-red , blue-moon, super-moon was 31 March 1866 we'll
    have to wait 55458 days for the next coincidence of the tides in the
    channel , presumably.
    I wonder what conjuction of tidal harmonics gives a 55,458 day repeat.

    It is double the named "Short Callipic Cycle" 2I+S = 75.9y 27729.22d

    27729.22 x 2 = 55458.44 but according to the catalogue is unnamed.

    I = Inex ~29y and S = Saros ~18y

    They are the fundamental periodicities that allow you to catalogue
    eclipse cycles. It will be interesting to see if the strong tides this
    year drive any climatic effects from deep ocean mixing.

    http://www.staff.science.uu.nl/~gent0113/eclipse/eclipsecycles.htm

    Inex gives you an eclipse about the same longitude but opposite latitude
    and 3x Saros gives you about the same eclipse conditions in about the
    same place on the Earth. Or for an overviews and better explanation

    https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEsaros/SEperiodicity.html

    The high tides in ports of a large part of the English channel today
    are all the same time. I originally thought there was a problem with
    big-data
    http://www.ntslf.org/storm-surges/latest-surge-forecast?port=Dover
    http://www.ntslf.org/storm-surges/latest-surge-forecast?port=Newhaven
    http://www.ntslf.org/storm-surges/latest-surge-forecast?port=Portsmouth

    And from the UK Hydrographic office, high tide times today
    Portsmouth,10:53, 23:24
    Newhaven, 10:43 , 23:17
    Dover, 10:44, 23:09



    Ta for that, I'll let the local NOC academic oceanographers know, to
    avoid too much head-scratching.
    Next stop Milankovitch cycles

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Martin Brown@21:1/5 to All on Wed Jan 31 20:29:25 2018
    On 31/01/2018 18:03, N_Cook wrote:
    On 31/01/2018 16:17, Martin Brown wrote:
    On 31/01/2018 14:16, N_Cook wrote:
    A quirk of celestial mechanics.
    As the last blood-red , blue-moon, super-moon was 31 March 1866 we'll
    have to wait 55458 days for the next coincidence of the tides in the
    channel , presumably.
    I wonder what conjuction of tidal harmonics gives a 55,458 day repeat.

    It is double the named "Short Callipic Cycle" 2I+S = 75.9y 27729.22d

    27729.22 x 2 = 55458.44 but according to the catalogue is unnamed.

    I = Inex ~29y and S = Saros ~18y

    They are the fundamental periodicities that allow you to catalogue
    eclipse cycles. It will be interesting to see if the strong tides this
    year drive any climatic effects from deep ocean mixing.

    http://www.staff.science.uu.nl/~gent0113/eclipse/eclipsecycles.htm

    Inex gives you an eclipse about the same longitude but opposite latitude
    and 3x Saros gives you about the same eclipse conditions in about the
    same place on the Earth. Or for an overviews and better explanation

    https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEsaros/SEperiodicity.html

    Ta for that, I'll let the local NOC academic oceanographers know, to
    avoid too much head-scratching.
     Next stop Milankovitch cycles

    Checking there was also a nice juicy total lunar eclipse in 1942 Mar 3
    which is midway between the one you quoted and now (ie every 2I+S).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_1942_lunar_eclipse

    Any interesting tides observed back then?

    The one later in the year promises to have better UK visibility but we
    still won't see totality well - moon will rise in eclipse for the UK:

    https://www.space.com/33786-lunar-eclipse-guide.html

    Some of these empirical eclipse rules have been known since Babylonian
    times! Predicting solar eclipses was a blood sport in the early days of colonising China when Ferdinand Verbiest nearly got killed before
    inflicting that fate on the indigenous lazy court "astronomers".

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ferdinand_Verbiest#Astronomy_contests

    Enjoy! Sometimes truth is stranger than fiction.

    --
    Regards,
    Martin Brown

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    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From N_Cook@21:1/5 to Martin Brown on Thu Feb 1 08:45:22 2018
    On 31/01/2018 20:29, Martin Brown wrote:
    On 31/01/2018 18:03, N_Cook wrote:
    On 31/01/2018 16:17, Martin Brown wrote:
    On 31/01/2018 14:16, N_Cook wrote:
    A quirk of celestial mechanics.
    As the last blood-red , blue-moon, super-moon was 31 March 1866 we'll
    have to wait 55458 days for the next coincidence of the tides in the
    channel , presumably.
    I wonder what conjuction of tidal harmonics gives a 55,458 day repeat.

    It is double the named "Short Callipic Cycle" 2I+S = 75.9y 27729.22d

    27729.22 x 2 = 55458.44 but according to the catalogue is unnamed.

    I = Inex ~29y and S = Saros ~18y

    They are the fundamental periodicities that allow you to catalogue
    eclipse cycles. It will be interesting to see if the strong tides this
    year drive any climatic effects from deep ocean mixing.

    http://www.staff.science.uu.nl/~gent0113/eclipse/eclipsecycles.htm

    Inex gives you an eclipse about the same longitude but opposite latitude >>> and 3x Saros gives you about the same eclipse conditions in about the
    same place on the Earth. Or for an overviews and better explanation

    https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEsaros/SEperiodicity.html

    Ta for that, I'll let the local NOC academic oceanographers know, to
    avoid too much head-scratching.
    Next stop Milankovitch cycles

    Checking there was also a nice juicy total lunar eclipse in 1942 Mar 3
    which is midway between the one you quoted and now (ie every 2I+S).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_1942_lunar_eclipse

    Any interesting tides observed back then?

    The one later in the year promises to have better UK visibility but we
    still won't see totality well - moon will rise in eclipse for the UK:

    https://www.space.com/33786-lunar-eclipse-guide.html

    Some of these empirical eclipse rules have been known since Babylonian
    times! Predicting solar eclipses was a blood sport in the early days of colonising China when Ferdinand Verbiest nearly got killed before
    inflicting that fate on the indigenous lazy court "astronomers".

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ferdinand_Verbiest#Astronomy_contests

    Enjoy! Sometimes truth is stranger than fiction.


    I doubt anything noticed 1942, any more than generally this week.
    Its only the heights that are generally noticed and they are perfectly
    normal spring tides this week and this year.
    As part of local marine flooding potential, I daily look at NTSLF surge
    plots for Pompey, Newlyn and Dover.
    Superimposed on the plots is the high tide times ,only, not low tides, graphically. So it was obvious to the resolution of the plots the times
    were the same, highly odd and seemingly in error, Newhaven showed the
    same times.
    Normally, springs and neaps, the tide pulse goes west to east about 6
    hours Newlyn too Pompey and 6 hours Pompey to Dover, where it just about coincides with the tide pulse down the east coast.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From N_Cook@21:1/5 to All on Sun Feb 4 09:50:08 2018
    On 01/02/2018 08:45, N_Cook wrote:
    On 31/01/2018 20:29, Martin Brown wrote:
    On 31/01/2018 18:03, N_Cook wrote:
    On 31/01/2018 16:17, Martin Brown wrote:
    On 31/01/2018 14:16, N_Cook wrote:
    A quirk of celestial mechanics.
    As the last blood-red , blue-moon, super-moon was 31 March 1866 we'll >>>>> have to wait 55458 days for the next coincidence of the tides in the >>>>> channel , presumably.
    I wonder what conjuction of tidal harmonics gives a 55,458 day repeat. >>>>
    It is double the named "Short Callipic Cycle" 2I+S = 75.9y 27729.22d

    27729.22 x 2 = 55458.44 but according to the catalogue is unnamed.

    I = Inex ~29y and S = Saros ~18y

    They are the fundamental periodicities that allow you to catalogue
    eclipse cycles. It will be interesting to see if the strong tides this >>>> year drive any climatic effects from deep ocean mixing.

    http://www.staff.science.uu.nl/~gent0113/eclipse/eclipsecycles.htm

    Inex gives you an eclipse about the same longitude but opposite
    latitude
    and 3x Saros gives you about the same eclipse conditions in about the
    same place on the Earth. Or for an overviews and better explanation

    https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEsaros/SEperiodicity.html

    Ta for that, I'll let the local NOC academic oceanographers know, to
    avoid too much head-scratching.
    Next stop Milankovitch cycles

    Checking there was also a nice juicy total lunar eclipse in 1942 Mar 3
    which is midway between the one you quoted and now (ie every 2I+S).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_1942_lunar_eclipse

    Any interesting tides observed back then?

    The one later in the year promises to have better UK visibility but we
    still won't see totality well - moon will rise in eclipse for the UK:

    https://www.space.com/33786-lunar-eclipse-guide.html

    Some of these empirical eclipse rules have been known since Babylonian
    times! Predicting solar eclipses was a blood sport in the early days of
    colonising China when Ferdinand Verbiest nearly got killed before
    inflicting that fate on the indigenous lazy court "astronomers".

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ferdinand_Verbiest#Astronomy_contests

    Enjoy! Sometimes truth is stranger than fiction.


    I doubt anything noticed 1942, any more than generally this week.
    Its only the heights that are generally noticed and they are perfectly
    normal spring tides this week and this year.
    As part of local marine flooding potential, I daily look at NTSLF surge
    plots for Pompey, Newlyn and Dover.
    Superimposed on the plots is the high tide times ,only, not low tides, graphically. So it was obvious to the resolution of the plots the times
    were the same, highly odd and seemingly in error, Newhaven showed the
    same times.
    Normally, springs and neaps, the tide pulse goes west to east about 6
    hours Newlyn too Pompey and 6 hours Pompey to Dover, where it just about coincides with the tide pulse down the east coast.


    From one of the NOC experts on deep-sea oceanography
    "I would be very surprised if the tides have any significant effect on
    deep ocean mixing."
    "tides" in this context referring the recent anomolous tides as
    exemplified at Dover last week

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Martin Brown@21:1/5 to All on Mon Feb 5 09:01:56 2018
    On 04/02/2018 09:50, N_Cook wrote:
    On 01/02/2018 08:45, N_Cook wrote:
    On 31/01/2018 20:29, Martin Brown wrote:
    On 31/01/2018 18:03, N_Cook wrote:
    On 31/01/2018 16:17, Martin Brown wrote:

    I = Inex ~29y and S = Saros ~18y

    They are the fundamental periodicities that allow you to catalogue
    eclipse cycles. It will be interesting to see if the strong tides this >>>>> year drive any climatic effects from deep ocean mixing.

    http://www.staff.science.uu.nl/~gent0113/eclipse/eclipsecycles.htm

    Inex gives you an eclipse about the same longitude but opposite
    latitude
    and 3x Saros gives you about the same eclipse conditions in about the >>>>> same place on the Earth. Or for an overviews and better explanation

    https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEsaros/SEperiodicity.html

    Ta for that, I'll let the local NOC academic oceanographers know, to
    avoid too much head-scratching.
      Next stop Milankovitch cycles

    Checking there was also a nice juicy total lunar eclipse in 1942 Mar 3
    which is midway between the one you quoted and now (ie every 2I+S).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_1942_lunar_eclipse

    Any interesting tides observed back then?

    [snip]

    From one of the NOC experts on deep-sea oceanography
    "I would be very surprised if the tides have any significant effect on
    deep ocean mixing."
    "tides" in this context referring the recent anomolous tides as
    exemplified at Dover last week

    I know it is out of fashion at the moment but I think the Keeling tides
    paper PNAS 1997 August, 94 (16) 8321-8328 was actually onto something
    (although some of the analysis is flawed and the MEM spectrum (fig 4) is
    over fitted causing peak splitting of the 18y Saros peak to 15y & 21y.

    They see a strong peak at 58y (2x Inex but fail to comment on it).

    http://www.pnas.org/content/94/16/8321

    My contention is that there is evidence in their analysis despite them
    having removed a fair amount of the longer periodicities for tidal
    forcing at 2xInex = 58 years. HADCRUT also shows periodic positive
    excursions around 2000, 1940 and 1880 separated by about the Inex
    period. You would also expect something at ~54 years which is a period
    for about the same eclipse at about the same longitude and especially
    when the eclipse is at or near perigee.

    My email address is valid so if you would be kind enough to your NOC
    expert to get in touch I would be interested to discuss with them why
    they would dismiss the possibility of tidal forcing out of hand.

    --
    Regards,
    Martin Brown

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Andy Walker@21:1/5 to All on Mon Feb 5 11:52:58 2018
    On 31/01/18 14:16, N_Cook wrote:
    A quirk of celestial mechanics.
    [...]
    The high tides [...].

    Nothing directly to do with this [interesting] discussion,
    but the BBC's programme on the supermoon was trying to explain what
    was meant by full/new/quarter Moon, why some were "super", etc.,
    the usual stuff. In the middle of which they told us that when the
    Moon was new, its pull reinforced that of the Sun, and we had higher
    tides than usual. Nothing said directly, but any normal listener
    would have inferred that when it was full, and its pull was opposed
    to that of the Sun, tides would be lower. I've heard physicists,
    who really should know better, say exactly that on TV.

    In trying to explain this to people, they can usually accept
    that we get "spring" tides when the Moon-tide and the Sun-tide are
    reinforcing each other, and "neap" tides when they oppose. The hard
    part is explaining why the Moon-tide bulges both towards and away
    from the Moon. You can explain till you're blue in the face that the
    Moon's gravity pull is stronger on the side of Earth facing the Moon
    and weaker on the side facing away, so the water piles up [a little!]
    on both sides, but somehow that gets confused with ellipses with the
    Earth at one focus, and/or with the phase of the Moon.

    I had one former colleague, a highly intelligent and competent
    pure mathematician, who came to me regularly to explain this. "We
    did this last year!" "Yes, but I've forgotten, and the children have
    asked again, and anyway [famous name] was on TV and his explanation
    was different. Surely we get lower high tides at full Moon?" "No,
    because [blah]." "No, you've lost me. Are you saying that [name]
    was wrong?" "Yes. Let's try again ...."

    --
    Andy Walker,
    Nottingham.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From N_Cook@21:1/5 to Andy Walker on Mon Feb 5 14:48:46 2018
    On 05/02/2018 11:52, Andy Walker wrote:
    On 31/01/18 14:16, N_Cook wrote:
    A quirk of celestial mechanics.
    [...]
    The high tides [...].

    Nothing directly to do with this [interesting] discussion,
    but the BBC's programme on the supermoon was trying to explain what
    was meant by full/new/quarter Moon, why some were "super", etc.,
    the usual stuff. In the middle of which they told us that when the
    Moon was new, its pull reinforced that of the Sun, and we had higher
    tides than usual. Nothing said directly, but any normal listener
    would have inferred that when it was full, and its pull was opposed
    to that of the Sun, tides would be lower. I've heard physicists,
    who really should know better, say exactly that on TV.

    In trying to explain this to people, they can usually accept
    that we get "spring" tides when the Moon-tide and the Sun-tide are reinforcing each other, and "neap" tides when they oppose. The hard
    part is explaining why the Moon-tide bulges both towards and away
    from the Moon. You can explain till you're blue in the face that the
    Moon's gravity pull is stronger on the side of Earth facing the Moon
    and weaker on the side facing away, so the water piles up [a little!]
    on both sides, but somehow that gets confused with ellipses with the
    Earth at one focus, and/or with the phase of the Moon.

    I had one former colleague, a highly intelligent and competent
    pure mathematician, who came to me regularly to explain this. "We
    did this last year!" "Yes, but I've forgotten, and the children have
    asked again, and anyway [famous name] was on TV and his explanation
    was different. Surely we get lower high tides at full Moon?" "No,
    because [blah]." "No, you've lost me. Are you saying that [name]
    was wrong?" "Yes. Let's try again ...."


    Brian Cox did an excellent visual-aided correct explanation of why
    springs occur at new and full moons, and tidal "bulge" on opposite sides
    of the Earth at any one time. A few months back on BBC something,
    perhaps on Utube if not replayer.
    Something to do with momentum/centrepetal forces I seem to remember

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From N_Cook@21:1/5 to Martin Brown on Mon Feb 5 14:44:10 2018
    On 05/02/2018 09:01, Martin Brown wrote:
    On 04/02/2018 09:50, N_Cook wrote:
    On 01/02/2018 08:45, N_Cook wrote:
    On 31/01/2018 20:29, Martin Brown wrote:
    On 31/01/2018 18:03, N_Cook wrote:
    On 31/01/2018 16:17, Martin Brown wrote:

    I = Inex ~29y and S = Saros ~18y

    They are the fundamental periodicities that allow you to catalogue >>>>>> eclipse cycles. It will be interesting to see if the strong tides
    this
    year drive any climatic effects from deep ocean mixing.

    http://www.staff.science.uu.nl/~gent0113/eclipse/eclipsecycles.htm >>>>>>
    Inex gives you an eclipse about the same longitude but opposite
    latitude
    and 3x Saros gives you about the same eclipse conditions in about the >>>>>> same place on the Earth. Or for an overviews and better explanation >>>>>>
    https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEsaros/SEperiodicity.html

    Ta for that, I'll let the local NOC academic oceanographers know, to >>>>> avoid too much head-scratching.
    Next stop Milankovitch cycles

    Checking there was also a nice juicy total lunar eclipse in 1942 Mar 3 >>>> which is midway between the one you quoted and now (ie every 2I+S).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_1942_lunar_eclipse

    Any interesting tides observed back then?

    [snip]

    From one of the NOC experts on deep-sea oceanography
    "I would be very surprised if the tides have any significant effect on
    deep ocean mixing."
    "tides" in this context referring the recent anomolous tides as
    exemplified at Dover last week

    I know it is out of fashion at the moment but I think the Keeling tides
    paper PNAS 1997 August, 94 (16) 8321-8328 was actually onto something (although some of the analysis is flawed and the MEM spectrum (fig 4) is
    over fitted causing peak splitting of the 18y Saros peak to 15y & 21y.

    They see a strong peak at 58y (2x Inex but fail to comment on it).

    http://www.pnas.org/content/94/16/8321

    My contention is that there is evidence in their analysis despite them
    having removed a fair amount of the longer periodicities for tidal
    forcing at 2xInex = 58 years. HADCRUT also shows periodic positive
    excursions around 2000, 1940 and 1880 separated by about the Inex
    period. You would also expect something at ~54 years which is a period
    for about the same eclipse at about the same longitude and especially
    when the eclipse is at or near perigee.

    My email address is valid so if you would be kind enough to your NOC
    expert to get in touch I would be interested to discuss with them why
    they would dismiss the possibility of tidal forcing out of hand.


    I'll tell him of your recent post and "newspam"@... em address, remove
    both " ?

    My interest is a bit more parochial.
    I wonder if the "sotonisation" of the pompey tides https://www.admiralty.co.uk/AdmiraltyDownloadMedia/easytide/Double%20high%20waters%20and%20high%20water%20stands.pdf
    and multiple high-waters for Soton also since the end of 2015, (correspondence with Southampton Hydrographic office confirming this
    phenomenom but no insight as to cause, from them)
    change in Lymington tide times, growth of a spit at Pagham Harbour are
    all connected.
    Perhaps connected to whatever tidal harmonic constituents are close to
    syncing together for 2 or more years , along with the super-blue-blood
    moon, and all these local effects might drop out again after 2 more years.

    Myself and 3 proper NOC oceanographers are intrigued about this local
    effect, so far tentatively "blamed" on dredging for aggregates in the
    English channel, but an astronomic cause is much more interesting.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From N_Cook@21:1/5 to All on Mon Feb 5 15:42:32 2018
    No mention of any odd tidal or moon effects in the national Times
    newspaper of 03 Mar 1866 or 05 Mar 1866 , nor a local Southampton weekly newspaper but 1/3 of it was near enough illegible.
    The weekly Hampshire Chronicle i'll look in , sometime.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From N_Cook@21:1/5 to All on Mon Feb 5 15:46:01 2018
    On 05/02/2018 15:42, N_Cook wrote:
    No mention of any odd tidal or moon effects in the national Times
    newspaper of 03 Mar 1866 or 05 Mar 1866 , nor a local Southampton weekly newspaper but 1/3 of it was near enough illegible.
    The weekly Hampshire Chronicle i'll look in , sometime.





    Just realised I looked at the wrong dates, should have been the week of
    31 March 1866

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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  • From Andy Walker@21:1/5 to All on Mon Feb 5 19:34:46 2018
    On 05/02/18 14:48, N_Cook wrote:
    Brian Cox did an excellent visual-aided correct explanation of why
    springs occur at new and full moons, and tidal "bulge" on opposite
    sides of the Earth at any one time. A few months back on BBC
    something, perhaps on Utube if not replayer.

    Perhaps "Forces of Nature"? See

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4UZxzyOVJ8Q

    He has a somewhat different version from "Stargazing" at

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WGKgKayuC2M [1]

    and I expect there are others. Neither of these really explains
    spring/neap, though, AFAIR, nor why the Moon is more important
    than the Sun for this purpose.

    Something to do with momentum/centrepetal forces I seem to remember

    On the other hand, for whether he is correct, people should
    perhaps look at the first half of

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pwChk4S99i4

    Food for thought!

    [1] Just seen your other article! But I'll let this one stand anyway.

    --
    Andy Walker,
    Nottingham.

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  • From N_Cook@21:1/5 to Andy Walker on Mon Feb 5 19:22:48 2018
    On 05/02/2018 11:52, Andy Walker wrote:
    On 31/01/18 14:16, N_Cook wrote:
    A quirk of celestial mechanics.
    [...]
    The high tides [...].

    Nothing directly to do with this [interesting] discussion,
    but the BBC's programme on the supermoon was trying to explain what
    was meant by full/new/quarter Moon, why some were "super", etc.,
    the usual stuff. In the middle of which they told us that when the
    Moon was new, its pull reinforced that of the Sun, and we had higher
    tides than usual. Nothing said directly, but any normal listener
    would have inferred that when it was full, and its pull was opposed
    to that of the Sun, tides would be lower. I've heard physicists,
    who really should know better, say exactly that on TV.

    In trying to explain this to people, they can usually accept
    that we get "spring" tides when the Moon-tide and the Sun-tide are reinforcing each other, and "neap" tides when they oppose. The hard
    part is explaining why the Moon-tide bulges both towards and away
    from the Moon. You can explain till you're blue in the face that the
    Moon's gravity pull is stronger on the side of Earth facing the Moon
    and weaker on the side facing away, so the water piles up [a little!]
    on both sides, but somehow that gets confused with ellipses with the
    Earth at one focus, and/or with the phase of the Moon.

    I had one former colleague, a highly intelligent and competent
    pure mathematician, who came to me regularly to explain this. "We
    did this last year!" "Yes, but I've forgotten, and the children have
    asked again, and anyway [famous name] was on TV and his explanation
    was different. Surely we get lower high tides at full Moon?" "No,
    because [blah]." "No, you've lost me. Are you saying that [name]
    was wrong?" "Yes. Let's try again ...."


    I'm not in a situation to look at videos at the moment, but this may be
    the mini presentation I saw
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WGKgKayuC2M

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  • From Martin Brown@21:1/5 to All on Tue Feb 6 14:25:22 2018
    On 05/02/2018 14:44, N_Cook wrote:
    On 05/02/2018 09:01, Martin Brown wrote:

    My email address is valid so if you would be kind enough to your NOC
    expert to get in touch I would be interested to discuss with them why
    they would dismiss the possibility of tidal forcing out of hand.


    I'll tell him of your recent post and "newspam"@... em address,
    remove both " ?

    Make absolutely no changes and it should get through unmolested.

    Spammers scripts can't resist removing "spam" from it or correcting the
    number of '''. In a previous incarnation it used "|" which really messed
    up poorly designed Unix spammers scripts.

    My new mailserver doesn't allow the use of the pipe character.

    My interest is a bit more parochial.
    I wonder if the "sotonisation" of the pompey tides

    https://www.admiralty.co.uk/AdmiraltyDownloadMedia/easytide/Double%20high%20waters%20and%20high%20water%20stands.pdf
    and multiple high-waters for Soton also since the end of 2015, (correspondence with Southampton Hydrographic office confirming this
    phenomenom but no insight as to cause, from them)
    change in Lymington tide times, growth of a spit at Pagham Harbour
    are all connected.
    Perhaps connected to whatever tidal harmonic constituents are close
    to syncing together for 2 or more years , along with the
    super-blue-blood moon, and all these local effects might drop out again
    after 2 more years.

    Myself and 3 proper NOC oceanographers are intrigued about this local
    effect, so far tentatively "blamed" on dredging for aggregates in the
    English channel, but an astronomic cause is much more interesting.

    Worth taking a look at the times series for likely candidates. Eclipses
    are a crude proxy for good alignment the ones around now close to
    perigee can do the most thrashing with the moon at its closest.

    To turn a sine wave into a square wave you are looking for a third
    harmonic component in antiphase and 1/3 the amplitude (or to just get a flattish top (2n+1)th harmonic and the right amplitude to match).

    Accidentally sent this to your email address and just noticed the
    bounce... sorry for the delay (and mangled formatting).

    --
    Regards,
    Martin Brown

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