XPost: alt.politics.congress, alt.politics.usa.constitution, alt.politics.obama XPost: alt.politics.libertarian, alt.activism.d
On 6/5/2020 1:39 PM, Intelligent Party wrote:
How few cases before one could think there would not be a liable epidemic?
They put the "stay-at-home" orders on, when there were less than 2,000 Active Cases in the entire State of California. There are now over 80,000 Active Case in
that State.
At 2,500 New Cases Daily in California - which is what was yesterday, there will
be 2,500 x 30 = 75,000 new cases at the end of the month. 150,000 new cases at
the end of two months, and 225,000 new cases at the end of three months, minus
recoveries.
At 20,000 New Cases Daily Nationwide, which is current (22,000), there will be
20,000 x 30 = 600,000 new cases at the end of the month, 1,200,000 new cases at
the end of two months, and 1,800,000 new cases at the end of three months, minus
recoveries.
Deaths are running about 5%-6% of that, 5% of 1,800,000 = 90,000, 6% = 108,000. So
basically 100,000 more dead in 3 months. Or 400,000 deaths per year ongoing. At
30,000 Cases per day, it would be 100,000 in 2 months, or 600,000 deaths per year.
And this is without people sitting in stuffy work rooms, restaurants or at school.
Unless we eradicate, how can we "live" with this disease?
Let me remind everyone, that without the quarantine but everyone just doing their
normal activities, the Daily New Infection Rate was 25%. At 25%, in three days the total number of cases doubles. In seven days it quintuples. In 10 days it is
times 10. In 20 days, times 100, in 30 days times 1,000, and in two months times
1,000,000, or terminal. 333 cases becomes 333,000,000 cases in 60 days at a 25%
daily infection rate, and this is what was going on before the Quarantine. We don't want to return to anything like this and overwhelm our hospitals. Even with
more personal protective equipment, testing, and awareness, an increase to a Daily
New Infection Rate of 10%-15% with States supposedly opening would be disastrous.
It's time for Congress to step in.
https://docs.zoho.com/embed/cs6eab29f117fec84421c9c13fb84913ab066
Just drop 25% in there, and see how that spreadsheet looks. It may take 7 seconds
to calculate. You can see the Country is terminal on day 34. (This is from 1,000,000 cases, if you drop 28.33% into it and account for the Hypothetical Daily
Recovery Rate of 3.33%, you can see it would actually be 1,000,000,000 by day 34,
at a true 25% with no recoveries).
[Spreadsheet will always reload when you reload html,
Response lag time is 4 seconds+ when used as an html.
If you download, you to have right click, Properties, Unblock, to open.]
For the mathematically challenged among you, let me spell it out:
1.25 x 1.25 x 1.25 = 2
1.25 x 1.25 x 1.25 x 1.25 x 1.25 x 1.25 x 1.25 = 5
2 x 5 = 10, Yes, that's 10x in 10 days.
10 x 10 = 100, in 20 days
100 x 10 = 1,000 in 30 days
1,000 x 1,000 = 1,000,000 in 60 days
There are 30-50 million cases of flu every year in 4 months!
COVID is MORE VIRULENT than flu!
U.S. Nationwide Data:
Date Cases
3/10/2020 936
3/11/2020 1,205
3/12/2020 1,598
3/13/2020 2,163
3/14/2020 2,825
3/15/2020 3,501
3/16/2020 4,373
3/17/2020 5,664
3/18/2020 8,074
3/19/2020 12,022
3/20/2020 17,439
3/21/2020 23,710
3/22/2020 32,341
3/23/2020 42,751
3/24/2020 52,690
3/25/2020 64,916
3/26/2020 81,966
3/27/2020 101,012
That's 18 days, FACT, from 1,000 to 100,000 Cases, 100 TIMES, as explained above!
California Data
Dates Cases
3/9/2020 133
3/10/2020 157
3/11/2020 177
3/12/2020 198
3/13/2020 247
3/14/2020 335
3/15/2020 392
3/16/2020 472
3/17/2020 598
3/18/2020 675
3/19/2020 1,006
3/20/2020 1,224
3/21/2020 1,468
3/22/2020 1,733
3/23/2020 2,102
3/24/2020 2,535
3/25/2020 3,006
3/26/2020 3,801
3/27/2020 4,643
3/28/2020 4,643
3/29/2020 5,763
3/30/2020 6,932
3/31/2020 8,155
4/1/2020 9,191
4/2/2020 10,701
That's 25 days, FACT, from 100 to 10,000 Cases, 100 TIMES, as explained above!
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