• Newly Recorded COVID-19 Cases and Deaths Are Falling in the U.S. - It's

    From Ubiquitous@21:1/5 to All on Tue Dec 29 04:30:23 2020
    XPost: alt.tv.pol-incorrect, alt.fan.rush-limbaugh, alt.politics.usa
    XPost: sci.med.diseases

    Newly recorded COVID-19 cases and deaths in the United States, which
    rose dramatically this fall, now seem to be declining. According to Worldometer's numbers, the seven-day average of daily new cases fell by
    18 percent between December 18 and yesterday. The seven-day average of
    daily deaths has fallen by 19 percent since December 22.

    Daily new cases in the U.S. are still five times as high as they were
    in mid-September, while daily deaths are three times as high as they
    were in mid-October. But the seven-day average of daily deaths, about
    2,200 as of yesterday, has dropped slightly below last spring's peak
    after exceeding it for several weeks. The recent trends, assuming they continue, are a hopeful sign that the winter might not be quite as
    deadly as many people feared.

    Back in October, for instance, Joe Biden said "the expectation is we'll
    have another 200,000 Americans dead [from COVID-19] between now and the
    end of the year." That implied a total U.S. death toll of about 423,000
    by January 1. Per Worldometer, the current death toll is about 342,000.
    With four days to go in the year, it looks like Biden's projection will
    be off by 70,000 or so.

    Allowing for the lag between laboratory confirmation and death, the
    recent drop in fatalities corresponds with a decrease in daily new
    cases recorded in late November. Since newly identified infections are
    falling again, it is plausible that daily deaths will continue to fall
    as well.

    But for how long? Since COVID-19 symptoms that might prompt someone to
    seek testing appear two to 14 days after infection, the increase in
    confirmed cases following the dip in late November is consistent with
    the fear that gatherings over Thanksgiving weekend would boost virus transmission. The impact of Christmas and New Year's Eve gatherings may
    not be fully apparent until mid-January or later.

    The pessimistic take on the recent dip in daily new cases is that it
    simply represents a falloff from the surge associated with
    Thanksgiving, which suggests that cases and deaths will rise again as infections tied to Christmas and New Year's Eve celebrations show up in
    the official tallies. A more optimistic interpretation is that the
    dramatic increases in cases and deaths have encouraged wider and more consistent compliance with COVID-19 precautions.

    Did the new legal restrictions imposed by many states also play a role?
    Maybe, although a comparison of the two most populous states seems
    inconsistent with that hypothesis. California, where Gov. Gavin Newsom
    has imposed a raft of new restrictions, has seen about the same decline
    in daily new cases as Texas, where Gov. Greg Abbott has taken a more
    lenient approach. Texas has seen a bigger decline in daily deaths.

    However you interpret current trends, they show that continued
    increases in new cases and deaths are not inevitable. The way Americans
    choose to behave in the months until vaccines are widely available will determine exactly how deadly the pandemic proves to be.

    Trump won.

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