The Real Winner of the Afghan War? It’s Not Who You Think.
By Jane Perlez, 8/26/21, New York Times

Though Pakistan was supposed to be an American ally, it
always worked toward its own interests, as nations do.
Those interests did not include a large American military
presence on its border, an autonomous Afghanistan with a
democratic government it could not control, or a strong
and centralized military.

Rather, Pakistan’s goal in Afghanistan was to create a
sphere of influence to block its archnemesis, India. The
Pakistanis insist that India uses separatist groups like
the Balochistan Liberation Army, operating from havens in
Afghanistan, to stir dissent in Pakistan.

“The Pakistani army believes Afghanistan provides strategic
depth against India, which is their obsession,” said Bruce
Riedel, a former South Asia adviser to the Bush & Obama
admins. “The U.S. encouraged India to support the American-
backed Afghan govt after 2001, fueling the army’s paranoia.”

The Pakistanis were incensed that former President Obama
visited India in 2015 but conspicuously boycotted Pakistan,
he said.
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“The Afghan Taliban would not be where they are without
the assistance of the Pakistanis,” Mr. London said.

Washington’s relationship with Pakistan cooled after Navy
SEALS killed Osama bin Laden in 2011 at a safe house
located near a Pakistani military academy. Top American
officials stopped visiting Pakistan & assistance was reduced.

But the Obama admin never said publicly what it suspected:
that the Pakistani military knew all along that bin Laden
was living with his extended family in Abbottabad, one of
Pakistan’s best-known garrison towns.

If Washington had declared that Pakistan was harboring
bin Laden, then Pakistan would have legally been a state
sponsor of terrorism, and subject to mandatory sanctions
like Iran, said Mr. Riedel.

That would have forced the Americans to end its support
for Pakistan and that in turn, would have led Pakistan to
stop American war supplies from transiting Pakistan,
increasing the cost of the war.

The bin Laden raid played into longstanding fears within
the Pakistani military that the Americans wanted to
dismantle Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal, and would violate
Pakistani territory to do it.

Despite the strained relations, the U.S. continues to
work with Pakistan thru the Dept of Energy to help provide
security for the weapons, & fissile material, said Toby
Dalton, co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the
Carnegie Endowment.

But Pakistan is also agile in its alliances. China, a
longtime patron of Pakistan — they call each other as
“close as lips and teeth” — is investing heavily in
Pakistani infrastructure.

Publicly, China says it is cheered to see the Americans
exit Afghanistan, and is ready to step into the void,
expanding its Belt and Road initiative into Afghanistan,
where it hopes to extract minerals.

But privately, the Chinese are wary. Chinese workers in
Pakistan have been killed in terrorist attacks, which
could presage a rough ride in Afghanistan. And the Taliban
prefer isolation to roads and dams that could serve to
loosen their control on the population.

China is counting on Pakistan to serve as its facilitator
in Afghanistan, said Sajjan Gohel, International Security
Director of the Asia-Pacific Foundation in London.

“The Chinese appear confident that they will be able to
secure more security guarantees from the Taliban,” Mr.
Gohel said, “because of their mutual ties with Pakistan.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/26/world/asia/afghanistan-pakistan-taliban.html

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