• Had Hitler died on June 4, 1942

    From Byker@21:1/5 to All on Thu Nov 7 16:15:35 2019
    It almost happened: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TqtdElVxNWI

    Operation Barbarossa was still on the offensive, and would his generals have pursued a more thoughtful strategy to take Russia, instead of Adolf trying
    to micro-manage it at every level? Or would Goering have taken over and
    mucked things up even worse?

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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  • From The Horny Goat@21:1/5 to Byker on Thu Nov 7 18:31:37 2019
    On Thu, 7 Nov 2019 16:15:35 -0600, "Byker" <byker@do~rag.net> wrote:

    It almost happened: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TqtdElVxNWI

    Operation Barbarossa was still on the offensive, and would his generals have >pursued a more thoughtful strategy to take Russia, instead of Adolf trying
    to micro-manage it at every level? Or would Goering have taken over and >mucked things up even worse?

    Why June 4 1942 especially?

    Certainly Fall Blau (the 1942 offensive) was going very nicely at that
    point and Stalingrad was definitely there for the taking in Aug Sept
    1942 if taken on the march as opposed to a block by block struggle
    which would do nothing for them but chew up time and manpower.

    It should have been obvious by the end of September that the flanks
    were weaker than they needed to be.

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  • From Rich Rostrom@21:1/5 to Byker on Fri Nov 8 08:47:17 2019
    "Byker" <byker@do~rag.net> wrote:

    It almost happened: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TqtdElVxNWI

    Is this Hans Wind's story about Hitler's plane nearly hitting the
    sawmill chimney?

    Operation Barbarossa was still on the offensive, and would his generals have pursued a more thoughtful strategy to take Russia, instead of Adolf trying
    to micro-manage it at every level? Or would Goering have taken over and mucked things up even worse?

    Goering takes over; he's still the designated successor, and he hasn't
    been as thoroughly discredited as he was later. What changes does he
    make? I think he'd refrain from meddling in the course of BLAU as
    Hitler did, but it won't make that much difference. The Germans are
    still going to run out of fuel north of the Caucasus.

    Later on... Goering will never have the personal loyalty that Hitler
    did, nor the aura of victory. It will be much more feasible for the
    Schwarz Kappelle to stage a coup against him. It might even come in
    1943.
    --
    Nous sommes dans une pot de chambre, et nous y serons emmerdés.
    --- General Auguste-Alexandre Ducrot at Sedan, 1870.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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  • From Chrysi Cat@21:1/5 to Byker on Sat Nov 9 02:09:59 2019
    On 11/7/2019 3:15 PM, Byker wrote:
    It almost happened: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TqtdElVxNWI

    Operation Barbarossa was still on the offensive, and would his generals
    have
    pursued a more thoughtful strategy to take Russia, instead of Adolf trying
    to micro-manage it at every level? Or would Goering have taken over and mucked things up even worse?

    Might want to cross post to alt.history.what-if.

    AFAIK, Google /still/ has this group on such strict lockdown that you
    can't even view its archive, let alone get anyone without a standalone
    Usenet subscription to view the topic. So if that reader has one of
    those glitches that purge the body while keeping the header, there's no
    way for someone to read the response.

    --
    Chrysi Cat
    1/2 anthrocat, nearly 1/2 anthrofox, all magical
    Transgoddess, quick to anger.
    Call me Chrysi or call me Kat, I'll respond to either!

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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  • From The Horny Goat@21:1/5 to All on Sat Nov 9 12:02:03 2019
    On Sat, 9 Nov 2019 02:09:59 -0700, Chrysi Cat <chrysicat@gmail.com>
    wrote:

    On 11/7/2019 3:15 PM, Byker wrote:
    It almost happened: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TqtdElVxNWI

    Operation Barbarossa was still on the offensive, and would his generals
    have
    pursued a more thoughtful strategy to take Russia, instead of Adolf trying >> to micro-manage it at every level? Or would Goering have taken over and
    mucked things up even worse?

    Might want to cross post to alt.history.what-if.

    AFAIK, Google /still/ has this group on such strict lockdown that you
    can't even view its archive, let alone get anyone without a standalone
    Usenet subscription to view the topic. So if that reader has one of
    those glitches that purge the body while keeping the header, there's no
    way for someone to read the response.

    All because spammers used Google servers to spam the newsgroup.

    Lovely just ****ing lovely.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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  • From pyotr filipivich@21:1/5 to All on Tue Nov 12 08:00:46 2019
    XPost: alt.history.what-if

    The Horny Goat <lcraver@home.ca> on Thu, 07 Nov 2019 18:31:37 -0800
    typed in soc.history.what-if the following:
    On Thu, 7 Nov 2019 16:15:35 -0600, "Byker" <byker@do~rag.net> wrote:

    It almost happened: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TqtdElVxNWI

    Operation Barbarossa was still on the offensive, and would his generals have >>pursued a more thoughtful strategy to take Russia, instead of Adolf trying >>to micro-manage it at every level? Or would Goering have taken over and >>mucked things up even worse?

    Why June 4 1942 especially?

    Certainly Fall Blau (the 1942 offensive) was going very nicely at that
    point and Stalingrad was definitely there for the taking in Aug Sept
    1942 if taken on the march as opposed to a block by block struggle
    which would do nothing for them but chew up time and manpower.

    Question: would "Goring" have diverted the Sixth Army group to
    take Stalingrad, when the objective was the oilfields?
    Although, I can see a Nazi hierarchy insisting that "Stalin City"
    be taken for the Glory of the late Furher! regard less of the military
    merits (or lack there of).

    --
    pyotr filipivich.
    For Sale: Uncirculated Roman Drachmas, feature Julius Ceaser's Portrait, several dated 44 BCE. Comes with Certificate of Authenticity.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From SolomonW@21:1/5 to pyotr filipivich on Wed Nov 13 03:53:02 2019
    XPost: alt.history.what-if

    On Tue, 12 Nov 2019 08:00:46 -0800, pyotr filipivich wrote:

    The Horny Goat <lcraver@home.ca> on Thu, 07 Nov 2019 18:31:37 -0800
    typed in soc.history.what-if the following:
    On Thu, 7 Nov 2019 16:15:35 -0600, "Byker" <byker@do~rag.net> wrote:

    It almost happened: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TqtdElVxNWI

    Operation Barbarossa was still on the offensive, and would his generals have >>>pursued a more thoughtful strategy to take Russia, instead of Adolf trying >>>to micro-manage it at every level? Or would Goering have taken over and >>>mucked things up even worse?

    Why June 4 1942 especially?

    Certainly Fall Blau (the 1942 offensive) was going very nicely at that >>point and Stalingrad was definitely there for the taking in Aug Sept
    1942 if taken on the march as opposed to a block by block struggle
    which would do nothing for them but chew up time and manpower.

    Question: would "Goring" have diverted the Sixth Army group to
    take Stalingrad, when the objective was the oilfields?
    Although, I can see a Nazi hierarchy insisting that "Stalin City"
    be taken for the Glory of the late Furher! regard less of the military
    merits (or lack there of).


    There are two views on Goring, one negative and one positive. He was a
    person enormous ability and clear-sighted.

    Overall Goring was sceptical about the war from the start which he tried to stop. He was sure that the war against Russia was doomed to defeat. Then he
    was particularly worried about the growing power of the US.

    If in power, he would try to make a comprise peace.

    The minimum that Stalin would accept here was a full retreat of the German forces from Russia. I doubt that Goring would be willing to pay such a
    price, but he might accept much of a retreat.

    Also, he was an experienced military officer. I am sure he would have been concerned about the German military being overextending. So as far as Stalingrad is concerned, I doubt that he would be extending the war. I
    would expect some deep retreats by the German military.

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  • From pyotr filipivich@21:1/5 to All on Wed Nov 13 09:06:31 2019
    XPost: alt.history.what-if

    SolomonW <SolomonW@citi.com> on Wed, 13 Nov 2019 03:53:02 +1100 typed
    in soc.history.what-if the following:
    On Tue, 12 Nov 2019 08:00:46 -0800, pyotr filipivich wrote:

    The Horny Goat <lcraver@home.ca> on Thu, 07 Nov 2019 18:31:37 -0800
    typed in soc.history.what-if the following:
    On Thu, 7 Nov 2019 16:15:35 -0600, "Byker" <byker@do~rag.net> wrote:

    It almost happened: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TqtdElVxNWI

    Operation Barbarossa was still on the offensive, and would his generals have
    pursued a more thoughtful strategy to take Russia, instead of Adolf trying >>>>to micro-manage it at every level? Or would Goering have taken over and >>>>mucked things up even worse?

    Why June 4 1942 especially?

    Certainly Fall Blau (the 1942 offensive) was going very nicely at that >>>point and Stalingrad was definitely there for the taking in Aug Sept >>>1942 if taken on the march as opposed to a block by block struggle
    which would do nothing for them but chew up time and manpower.

    Question: would "Goring" have diverted the Sixth Army group to
    take Stalingrad, when the objective was the oilfields?
    Although, I can see a Nazi hierarchy insisting that "Stalin City"
    be taken for the Glory of the late Furher! regard less of the military
    merits (or lack there of).


    There are two views on Goring, one negative and one positive. He was a
    person enormous ability and clear-sighted.

    Overall Goring was sceptical about the war from the start which he tried to >stop. He was sure that the war against Russia was doomed to defeat. Then he >was particularly worried about the growing power of the US.

    If in power, he would try to make a comprise peace.

    The minimum that Stalin would accept here was a full retreat of the German >forces from Russia. I doubt that Goring would be willing to pay such a
    price, but he might accept much of a retreat.

    Also, he was an experienced military officer. I am sure he would have been >concerned about the German military being overextending. So as far as >Stalingrad is concerned, I doubt that he would be extending the war. I
    would expect some deep retreats by the German military.

    There are two basic possibilities if Hitler dies in '42.

    He's replaced by a Party Stalwart with little military experience.
    He's replaced by a Party Stalwart with military experience.

    Either way, it is possible to go forward with Operation Blue, and
    not add Stalingrad as an objective. Not diverting resources to that
    (imho) vanity project _might_ have enabled the army to take the
    oilfields. At the very least, it would have kept the 6th Army intact,
    and out of the meat grinder which is urban war.
    Now, whether the 3rd Reich would have been able to exploit those
    oil fields is another matter.

    I doubt that by 1942, either side would accept a status quo ante.
    The economic problems (raw materials for industry, POL, etc) remained.
    Gobbells would have had a hard time selling Germany on the pull back
    from the East, and the throwing away of the Valiant Dead. Talk about
    "being stabbed in the back."
    My own impression: by 1942 the war is lost. Without Stalingrad
    and the loss of the Sixth Army (and the Romanian and Hungarian armies)
    Germany _might_ have been able to hold a line, but where? There
    aren't many natural defensive lines between Berlin and Moscow. A
    number of rivers, yes, but ...

















    --
    pyotr filipivich.
    For Sale: Uncirculated Roman Drachmas, feature Julius Ceaser's Portrait, several dated 44 BCE. Comes with Certificate of Authenticity.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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  • From Rich Rostrom@21:1/5 to pyotr filipivich on Wed Nov 13 14:53:56 2019
    XPost: alt.history.what-if

    The Horny Goat <lcraver@home.ca> on Thu, 07 Nov 2019 18:31:37 -0800
    typed in soc.history.what-if the following:
    On Thu, 7 Nov 2019 16:15:35 -0600, "Byker" <byker@do~rag.net> wrote:

    It almost happened: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TqtdElVxNWI

    Why June 4 1942 especially?

    See the video. On that date, Hitler made a quick visit
    to Finland to meet with Marshal Mannerheim on his
    birthday. (Their private conversation was recorded by
    Finnish intelligence; it's the only known recording of
    Hitler speaking conversationally, and was used
    extensively in the making of _Downfall_.)

    Hitler's airplane flew into an airfield in the Finnish
    backwoods, near Mannerheim's HQ. For the last part of
    the flight, the plane was escorted by Finnish
    fighters. (American made Brewster Buffalos!) One of
    the pilots was Finnish ace Hans Wind. According to his
    account in that video, Hitler's plane came in on a
    course that would have collided with a tall sawmill
    chimney. Wind himself flew down in front of the German
    plane, and "herded" it around the chimney.

    If Wind had not intervened, the plane could have hit
    the chimney and crashed, killing Hitler.

    Certainly Fall Blau (the 1942 offensive) was going
    very nicely at that point...

    Not yet. Fall BLAU started on 28 June, more than three weeks later.

    There had been some successful German offensives
    before 4 June: BUSTARD HUNT, which cleared eastern
    Crimea; and the destruction of the Barvenkovo salient
    near Kharkov. But the main attack had not started.

    SolomonW <SolomonW@citi.com> on Wed, 13 Nov 2019 03:53:02 +1100 typed
    in soc.history.what-if the following:

    pyotr filipivich <phamp@mindspring.com> wrote:

    There are two basic possibilities if Hitler dies in '42.

    He's replaced by a Party Stalwart with little military experience.
    He's replaced by a Party Stalwart with military experience.

    Goering is the designated successor. If there is some
    further pulling and hauling that replaces him, that's
    likely to paralyze German operations for a while.

    Either way, it is possible to go forward with
    Operation Blue, and not add Stalingrad as an
    objective.

    Taking Stalingrad was part of the original plan, AIUI.
    At the very least, German forces were to appraach
    Stalingrad and screen it from the surrounding area.

    4th Panzer Army (far right flank) and 6th Army (right
    center) were sent in that direction. Then 4th Panzer was
    switched to the south, to assist 1st Panzer Army and
    Seventeenth Army in crossing the lower Don into the
    north Caucasus, i.e. moving SE, _behind_ 6th Army.

    Then 6th Army bogged down at Stalingrad, and 4th Panzer
    was turned again, to the NE, to help capture Stalingrad.
    4th Panzer quickly overran the entire southern half of
    the city. It was in the north that 6th Army got into the
    brutal street fight.

    Not diverting resources to that (imho) vanity
    project _might_ have enabled the army to take the
    oilfields.

    Not likely. 1st Panzer was literally out of fuel, 200 km
    from the north end of the Caspian Gates. It would take
    a major extension of German effort to get to there. Then
    they have to fight through the Gates: the narrow strip
    between the Caspian Sea and the eastern Caucasus, about
    300 km more. There might not be a lot of Soviet troops
    in the area, but the US and Britain could send
    reinforcements from Iran.

    Now, whether the 3rd Reich would have been able to
    exploit those oil fields is another matter.

    Not any time soon. The Germans captured a lesser oilfield
    at Maikop, north of the western Caucasus, in early August.
    The Soviets trashed it before withdrawing. The Germans held
    it until January 1943. They sent a group of oil-field techs
    to get it working, but got essentially nothing in five months.


    I doubt that by 1942, either side would accept a
    status quo ante.
    The economic problems (raw materials for industry,
    POL, etc) remained. Goebbels would have had a hard
    time selling Germany on the pull back from the
    East...

    By late 1942, most Germans were less concerned with
    victory than with avoiding catastrophic defeat, and
    with the on-going cost of the war. Ending the Eastern
    Front would be a colossal relief. A lot of young men
    would be thinking "I'm not going to die."

    On the other side, Stalin might be happy to get his
    cookies back and rebuild while Germany fought it out
    with the US and UK.
    --
    Nous sommes dans une pot de chambre, et nous y serons emmerdés.
    --- General Auguste-Alexandre Ducrot at Sedan, 1870.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From The Horny Goat@21:1/5 to phamp@mindspring.com on Wed Nov 13 13:59:38 2019
    XPost: alt.history.what-if

    On Tue, 12 Nov 2019 08:00:46 -0800, pyotr filipivich
    <phamp@mindspring.com> wrote:

    Question: would "Goring" have diverted the Sixth Army group to
    take Stalingrad, when the objective was the oilfields?
    Although, I can see a Nazi hierarchy insisting that "Stalin City"
    be taken for the Glory of the late Furher! regard less of the military
    merits (or lack there of).

    I am skeptical the Germans could have taken AND HELD Grozny.

    What >IS< plausible is that the Germans take Stalingrad and enough
    east of the Volga to semi-permanentlly hold all rail routes to the
    Caucasus which is pretty much the same thing.

    Obviously the Germans will be expecting a winter counter-offensive but
    barring the losses they took at Stalingrad in Oct/Nov and avoiding
    obviously idiocies like placing Hungarians and Rumanians without
    adequate anti-tank weapons in critical locations in the line I see no
    reason a German catastrophe during the winter of 1942-43 is
    inevitable.

    Minus the rail lines to the Caucasus I am most doubtful enough oil
    could have been delivered to the Red Army via Caspian shipping to
    supply the full needs of the Red Army in 1943. Nor of the ability of
    Lend Lease to supply enough to allow meaningful Soviet attacks in
    1943.

    Whether that translates into German victory in the east in 1943-44 is
    anybody's guess though it definitely makes them stronger than in OTL's
    1943-44.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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  • From SolomonW@21:1/5 to Rich Rostrom on Thu Nov 14 22:30:40 2019
    XPost: alt.history.what-if

    On Wed, 13 Nov 2019 14:53:56 -0600, Rich Rostrom wrote:

    I doubt that by 1942, either side would accept a
    status quo ante.

    Stalin might, but I doubt he could get it.

    The economic problems (raw materials for industry,
    POL, etc) remained. Goebbels would have had a hard
    time selling Germany on the pull back from the
    East...


    I think any government even if magically a democratic liberal government
    came to power in Germany.



    By late 1942, most Germans were less concerned with
    victory than with avoiding catastrophic defeat, and
    with the on-going cost of the war. Ending the Eastern
    Front would be a colossal relief. A lot of young men
    would be thinking "I'm not going to die."


    In 1942, the blood had not really started for Germany.


    On the other side, Stalin might be happy to get his
    cookies back and rebuild while Germany fought it out
    with the US and UK.

    Well at this time the US and UK are not offering him anything better.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From The Horny Goat@21:1/5 to rrostrom@comcast.net on Thu Nov 14 17:53:24 2019
    XPost: alt.history.what-if

    On Wed, 13 Nov 2019 14:53:56 -0600, Rich Rostrom
    <rrostrom@comcast.net> wrote:

    Certainly Fall Blau (the 1942 offensive) was going
    very nicely at that point...

    Not yet. Fall BLAU started on 28 June, more than three weeks later.

    Alas you're right - I was thinking of the fighting around Kharkov
    where the Red Army attacked and got clobbered.

    There had been some successful German offensives
    before 4 June: BUSTARD HUNT, which cleared eastern
    Crimea; and the destruction of the Barvenkovo salient
    near Kharkov. But the main attack had not started.

    Sevastopol had not yet fallen on June 4th but yes the handwriting was
    on the wall then.

    He's replaced by a Party Stalwart with little military experience.
    He's replaced by a Party Stalwart with military experience.

    Or alternately a party stalwart with some military experience who
    thinks he knows a LOT more than he really does - which in my opinion
    describes Goering in 1942.

    Goering is the designated successor. If there is some
    further pulling and hauling that replaces him, that's
    likely to paralyze German operations for a while.

    Taking Stalingrad was part of the original plan, AIUI.
    At the very least, German forces were to appraach
    Stalingrad and screen it from the surrounding area.

    4th Panzer Army (far right flank) and 6th Army (right
    center) were sent in that direction. Then 4th Panzer was
    switched to the south, to assist 1st Panzer Army and
    Seventeenth Army in crossing the lower Don into the
    north Caucasus, i.e. moving SE, _behind_ 6th Army.

    Then 6th Army bogged down at Stalingrad, and 4th Panzer
    was turned again, to the NE, to help capture Stalingrad.
    4th Panzer quickly overran the entire southern half of
    the city. It was in the north that 6th Army got into the
    brutal street fight.

    I am convinced Stalingrad was there for the taking in the summer of
    1942 but that the attack degenerated into a frontal assault rather
    than a flanking maneuver. And we all know what happened after that.

    Not likely. 1st Panzer was literally out of fuel, 200 km
    from the north end of the Caspian Gates. It would take
    a major extension of German effort to get to there. Then
    they have to fight through the Gates: the narrow strip
    between the Caspian Sea and the eastern Caucasus, about
    300 km more. There might not be a lot of Soviet troops
    in the area, but the US and Britain could send
    reinforcements from Iran.

    I do think the Germans could have cut off Russian access to Caucasian
    oil. However unless they captured the fields intact (ha!!) they had
    little hope of extracting economically significant amounts of oil
    witihin the frst 18 months after capture. Rich (amongst others) will
    recall our chat on that subject 3-4 years back. The short version is
    that having 100,000 barrels of oil 2000 miles from Germany does not
    help the German economy if you do not have an effective method of
    transporting it to the Reich. On the other hand, reducing the Soviet
    supply of oil by 100,000 barrels DOES hurt the Red Army and is
    infinitely more achieveable than transporting the same oil from the
    Caucasus to the Reich.

    Now, whether the 3rd Reich would have been able to
    exploit those oil fields is another matter.

    Not any time soon. The Germans captured a lesser oilfield
    at Maikop, north of the western Caucasus, in early August.
    The Soviets trashed it before withdrawing. The Germans held
    it until January 1943. They sent a group of oil-field techs
    to get it working, but got essentially nothing in five months.

    My previous point about transporting oil via pipeline (and do you have
    any idea how hard it is to defend a pipeline - even if you magically
    had one nearly 2000 miles long - against a determined partisan force?

    By late 1942, most Germans were less concerned with
    victory than with avoiding catastrophic defeat, and
    with the on-going cost of the war. Ending the Eastern
    Front would be a colossal relief. A lot of young men
    would be thinking "I'm not going to die."

    That's a reason assumption in the spring of 1943 - far less so before
    the destruction of 6th army.

    On the other side, Stalin might be happy to get his
    cookies back and rebuild while Germany fought it out
    with the US and UK.

    There were actual peace negotiations in the spring of 1943. Stalin
    wanted the 1941 boundary, Hitler wanted the Dniepr. Since there was no
    deal they fought it out.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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  • From Rich Rostrom@21:1/5 to The Horny Goat on Fri Nov 15 04:35:11 2019
    XPost: alt.history.what-if

    The Horny Goat <lcraver@home.ca> wrote:

    There had been some successful German offensives
    before 4 June: BUSTARD HUNT, which cleared eastern
    Crimea; and the destruction of the Barvenkovo salient
    near Kharkov. But the main attack had not started.

    Sevastopol had not yet fallen on June 4th but yes the handwriting was
    on the wall then.

    BUSTARD HUNT cleared _eastern_ Crimea - the peninsula
    extending to Kerch Strait; the assault on Sevastopol
    was an entirely separate operation.
    --
    Nous sommes dans une pot de chambre, et nous y serons emmerdés.
    --- General Auguste-Alexandre Ducrot at Sedan, 1870.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From SolomonW@21:1/5 to The Horny Goat on Sat Nov 16 22:05:30 2019
    XPost: alt.history.what-if

    On Thu, 14 Nov 2019 17:53:24 -0800, The Horny Goat wrote:

    On Wed, 13 Nov 2019 14:53:56 -0600, Rich Rostrom
    <rrostrom@comcast.net> wrote:

    Certainly Fall Blau (the 1942 offensive) was going
    very nicely at that point...

    Not yet. Fall BLAU started on 28 June, more than three weeks later.

    Alas you're right - I was thinking of the fighting around Kharkov
    where the Red Army attacked and got clobbered.

    There had been some successful German offensives
    before 4 June: BUSTARD HUNT, which cleared eastern
    Crimea; and the destruction of the Barvenkovo salient
    near Kharkov. But the main attack had not started.

    Sevastopol had not yet fallen on June 4th but yes the handwriting was
    on the wall then.

    He's replaced by a Party Stalwart with little military experience.
    He's replaced by a Party Stalwart with military experience.

    Or alternately a party stalwart with some military experience who
    thinks he knows a LOT more than he really does - which in my opinion describes Goering in 1942.


    It would depend on who Goering uses as his military advisors. His choices
    of military leaders in the Luftwaffe were overall excellent and highly
    capable people.



    Goering is the designated successor. If there is some
    further pulling and hauling that replaces him, that's
    likely to paralyze German operations for a while.

    Taking Stalingrad was part of the original plan, AIUI.
    At the very least, German forces were to appraach
    Stalingrad and screen it from the surrounding area.

    4th Panzer Army (far right flank) and 6th Army (right
    center) were sent in that direction. Then 4th Panzer was
    switched to the south, to assist 1st Panzer Army and
    Seventeenth Army in crossing the lower Don into the
    north Caucasus, i.e. moving SE, _behind_ 6th Army.

    Then 6th Army bogged down at Stalingrad, and 4th Panzer
    was turned again, to the NE, to help capture Stalingrad.
    4th Panzer quickly overran the entire southern half of
    the city. It was in the north that 6th Army got into the
    brutal street fight.

    I am convinced Stalingrad was there for the taking in the summer of
    1942 but that the attack degenerated into a frontal assault rather
    than a flanking maneuver. And we all know what happened after that.


    If the attack on the oil fields were stopped a flanking attack is possible.
    It is not an easy operation as the Volga has to be crossed first.



    Not likely. 1st Panzer was literally out of fuel, 200 km
    from the north end of the Caspian Gates. It would take
    a major extension of German effort to get to there. Then
    they have to fight through the Gates: the narrow strip
    between the Caspian Sea and the eastern Caucasus, about
    300 km more. There might not be a lot of Soviet troops
    in the area, but the US and Britain could send
    reinforcements from Iran.

    I do think the Germans could have cut off Russian access to Caucasian
    oil. However unless they captured the fields intact (ha!!) they had
    little hope of extracting economically significant amounts of oil
    witihin the frst 18 months after capture. Rich (amongst others) will
    recall our chat on that subject 3-4 years back. The short version is
    that having 100,000 barrels of oil 2000 miles from Germany does not
    help the German economy if you do not have an effective method of transporting it to the Reich. On the other hand, reducing the Soviet
    supply of oil by 100,000 barrels DOES hurt the Red Army and is
    infinitely more achieveable than transporting the same oil from the
    Caucasus to the Reich.

    Have you looked how deep the Russian oil fields go inland? I do not believe Germany could go that far inland.

    It might be possible to establish an airfield to bomb them in that area.
    Still, there are some significant problems Germany does not have much in
    the way of heavy bombers, supplying strategic bombers from so deep in
    Russia, the Soviet airforce is growing rapidly and as later experience
    showed oil fields are not that vulnerable to air assault.



    Now, whether the 3rd Reich would have been able to
    exploit those oil fields is another matter.

    Not any time soon. The Germans captured a lesser oilfield
    at Maikop, north of the western Caucasus, in early August.
    The Soviets trashed it before withdrawing. The Germans held
    it until January 1943. They sent a group of oil-field techs
    to get it working, but got essentially nothing in five months.

    My previous point about transporting oil via pipeline (and do you have
    any idea how hard it is to defend a pipeline - even if you magically
    had one nearly 2000 miles long - against a determined partisan force?

    Agreed, there is a sea route, but it requires access from the ports of
    Italy through the Mediterranean into the Black Sea. It would not happen
    because of the British RN.



    By late 1942, most Germans were less concerned with
    victory than with avoiding catastrophic defeat, and
    with the on-going cost of the war. Ending the Eastern
    Front would be a colossal relief. A lot of young men
    would be thinking "I'm not going to die."

    That's a reason assumption in the spring of 1943 - far less so before
    the destruction of 6th army.

    I doubt it, German loses are not that high yet, and the Germans think they
    are winning. Not that it matters; it is not like the masses in Germany or Russia have much of a vote in the war.


    On the other side, Stalin might be happy to get his
    cookies back and rebuild while Germany fought it out
    with the US and UK.

    There were actual peace negotiations in the spring of 1943. Stalin
    wanted the 1941 boundary, Hitler wanted the Dniepr. Since there was no
    deal they fought it out.


    This is shrouded in mystery, but I am confident that if such a meeting did
    take place, we would have real evidence that it did take place. My view is
    that anti-Soviets were only too glad to support and spread such stories.

    What we know is that there are some references to a possible meeting in Stockholm in early 43 with some low-level officals of both countries. I
    have also read in a reference that a significant Soviet official came to Stockholm to talk and no-one came from Germany came to see him. The
    proposed meeting may have been aborted. Another set of low-level meetings
    may have occurred in mid-June or late 43, initiated allegedly by the
    Soviets.

    Stalin might have been in early 1943, wavering on what he should do so. At
    the same time, Ribbentrop has some freedom to explore as Hitler then wanted
    a separate peace. As we know that Ribbentrop was interested, he might have
    put some feelers out for a separate peace. Like Goering, he did not want a
    war with Russia. Hitler then decided that it was best to wait till he got a victory at Kursk that would allow him possibly to negotiate something out
    of the Russian campaign. Strategically he lost Kursk, and that was it.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From John Dallman@21:1/5 to SolomonW on Sat Nov 16 15:05:00 2019
    In article <3uua8tih9osy$.e6rc97mu0pcu.dlg@40tude.net>, SolomonW@citi.com (SolomonW) wrote:

    It would depend on who Goering uses as his military advisors. His
    choices of military leaders in the Luftwaffe were overall excellent
    and highly capable people.

    Making Ernst Udet head of Luftwaffe Equipment was a very poor choice, and condemned the Luftwaffe to fight with increasingly obsolete equipment. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ernst_Udet

    Joseph "Beppo" Schmid was in charge of Luftwaffe intelligence from the beginning of 1938 to late 1942. The intelligence used to plan the Battle
    of Britain was very defective, and his performance as a ground commander
    and in the Defence of the Reich campaign was unimpressive. His primary
    quality seemed to be his close friendship with Goering. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Schmid

    Wolfgang Martini, head of Luftwaffe signals, was competent, but Goering
    would not listen to him.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wolfgang_Martini

    John

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Byker@21:1/5 to John Dallman on Sat Nov 16 13:28:18 2019
    XPost: alt.history, alt.history.what-if

    "John Dallman" wrote in message news:memo.20191116150543.1784D@jgd.cix.co.uk...

    Joseph "Beppo" Schmid was in charge of Luftwaffe intelligence from the beginning of 1938 to late 1942. The intelligence used to plan the Battle
    of Britain was very defective, and his performance as a ground commander
    and in the Defence of the Reich campaign was unimpressive. His primary quality seemed to be his close friendship with Goering. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Schmid

    From what I've learned about the Battle of Britain, the Luftwaffe, despite their high losses, had all but exhausted the RAF. The British pilots were getting so little sleep that they nodded off at the controls and shuffled around like zombies. By the time Der Fuhrer threw in the towel, the RAF
    hadn't so much "won" the Battle of Britain as the Luftwaffe LOST it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uCu7IT81gh8&t=21m22s

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Phil McGregor@21:1/5 to Byker on Sun Nov 17 12:47:08 2019
    XPost: alt.history, alt.history.what-if

    On Sat, 16 Nov 2019 13:28:18 -0600, "Byker" <byker@do~rag.net> wrote:

    "John Dallman" wrote in message >news:memo.20191116150543.1784D@jgd.cix.co.uk...

    Joseph "Beppo" Schmid was in charge of Luftwaffe intelligence from the
    beginning of 1938 to late 1942. The intelligence used to plan the Battle
    of Britain was very defective, and his performance as a ground commander
    and in the Defence of the Reich campaign was unimpressive. His primary
    quality seemed to be his close friendship with Goering.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Schmid

    From what I've learned about the Battle of Britain, the Luftwaffe, despite >their high losses, had all but exhausted the RAF. The British pilots were >getting so little sleep that they nodded off at the controls and shuffled >around like zombies. By the time Der Fuhrer threw in the towel, the RAF >hadn't so much "won" the Battle of Britain as the Luftwaffe LOST it: >https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uCu7IT81gh8&t=21m22s

    Actually, not true at all. Not even close. A common set of 'everyone
    knows' factoids.

    The RAF only committed 55% of their fighter strength to active
    operational areas ... the remaining 45% remained, effectively, in
    reserve.

    The RAF was benefitting from the Empire Air Training Scheme which
    produced hundreds of pilots and aircrew every month in excess of
    operational needs.

    The RAF pilot total *increased* every month during the Battle of
    Britain - the Luftwaffe pilot total *decreased* every month in the
    same time period.

    RAF Fighter Pilots: ~800 in July, 950 in August, ~1050 in Spetember,
    ~1200 in October, ~1400 in November)

    RAF Pilot Losses: 68 in Julyt, 176 in August, 123 in September, 120 in
    October (Total = 487)

    Luftwaffe Fighter Pilots: ~500 in July, ~450 in August, ~375 in September-October-November.

    Luftwaffe Pilot Losses: 348 in July, 993 in August, 829 in September,
    492 in October (Total = 2662)

    The number of operational fighters available to the RAF in the SE and
    S operational areas remained much the same during the Battle ... and
    these were first line Hurricanes and Spitfires ... while the number of operational fighters available to the Luftwaffe (which included duds
    like the Me-110) decreased dramatically during the same period.

    RAF Fighters: ~850 in July, ~900 in August-September, ~800 in
    October-November.

    Luftwaffe Fighters: ~800 in July, ~750 in August, ~600 in September-October-November.

    Then, when you look at the number of sorties flown per day, the RAF
    flew as many as 10 for every one the Luftwaffe flew except during some
    weeks in august when they flew between 30-50% more. Giving them much
    more bang for their pounds.

    The thing is, we know all this with the benefit of postwar 20:20
    hindsight ... Churchill didn't know that the RAF was increasing in
    strength vis a vis the Luftwaffe *at the time* ... and Goering didn't
    know that they were falling further and further behind the RAF *at the
    time* ... we only know this from the data becoming available post WW2.

    In fact, the RAF won the BoB handily while the leaders thought it was
    a close run thing, and the Luftwaffe lost the BoB decisively, even
    though the leaders believed they had fought the RAF to a standstill.
    Even so, the Air Ministry had realised by early 1941 that the BoB had
    been won, though the magnitude of the victory wasn't fully understood
    til German records could be examined after the war.

    Unfortunately, many (not all) generalist history books still rely on
    the beliefs expressed by the leaders in 1940 rather than on more
    recent, and more comprehensive, research.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From SolomonW@21:1/5 to Phil McGregor on Sun Nov 17 15:15:35 2019
    XPost: alt.history, alt.history.what-if

    On Sun, 17 Nov 2019 12:47:08 +1100, Phil McGregor wrote:

    and Goering didn't
    know that they were falling further and further behind the RAF *at the
    time*

    Hermann Göring would not have known these figures, but he did know that something was going wrong. At Nuremberg, he stated that the losses were sustainable and he could have kept going but what mucked up the NAZIs was
    the lack of shipping for Sealion. If so, the question is, what was the
    point of this air war?

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Dimensional Traveler@21:1/5 to SolomonW on Sat Nov 16 21:36:13 2019
    XPost: alt.history, alt.history.what-if

    On 11/16/2019 8:15 PM, SolomonW wrote:
    On Sun, 17 Nov 2019 12:47:08 +1100, Phil McGregor wrote:

    and Goering didn't
    know that they were falling further and further behind the RAF *at the
    time*

    Hermann GĂśring would not have known these figures, but he did know that something was going wrong. At Nuremberg, he stated that the losses were sustainable and he could have kept going but what mucked up the NAZIs was
    the lack of shipping for Sealion. If so, the question is, what was the
    point of this air war?

    To make it safe for the shipping they did have, obviously! :P

    Slightly more realistically in Hitler's mind it was probably to punish
    Britain for not surrendering and to scare them into doing so.


    --
    "You need to believe in things that aren't true. How else can they become?"

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Phil McGregor@21:1/5 to All on Sun Nov 17 16:35:11 2019
    XPost: alt.history, alt.history.what-if

    On Sun, 17 Nov 2019 15:15:35 +1100, SolomonW <SolomonW@citi.com>
    wrote:

    On Sun, 17 Nov 2019 12:47:08 +1100, Phil McGregor wrote:

    and Goering didn't
    know that they were falling further and further behind the RAF *at the
    time*

    Hermann Göring would not have known these figures, but he did know that >something was going wrong. At Nuremberg, he stated that the losses were >sustainable and he could have kept going but what mucked up the NAZIs was
    the lack of shipping for Sealion. If so, the question is, what was the
    point of this air war?

    He wouldn't have known the RAF figures, sure, but he knew the
    Luftwaffe figures weren't sustainable ... but afaict he believed the
    RAF losses were equally unsustainable, so he seems to have believed
    there was some degree of Luftwaffe victory when, in fact, it was (as
    we now know) a clear defeat and the beginning of the end of the German
    air force.

    Hitler certainly didn't seem to believe the losses were sustainable in
    the face of prep for Barbarossa.

    What was the point of the BoB from the Nazi PoV?

    I am not entirely sure the Nazis had a clear agenda, or not a clear
    single agenda.

    I *think* there is evidence that Hitler suffered a version of 'victory
    disease' and believed that he could actually stage Sealion ... which
    the Kriegsmarine, at least, had a pretty good idea they couldn't, and
    tried repeatedly to tell High Command and Hitler, who completely
    ignored them.

    I *think* that there is also evidence that Hitler believed that the
    BoB and the threat of Sealion would force the UK to negotiate a peace favourable to Germany even though there isn't any real evidence that
    the UK would ever have considered such and a lot of historical
    evidence to suggest the exact opposite.

    I am pretty sure that Hitler had some inkling that leaving an
    unconquered or at least unemasculated UK at his rear for Barbarossa
    was not a good idea ... after all, the reason for the attack in the
    West was because he believed that a two front European war was largely
    what had led to Germany's defeat in WW1. Of course, this notion was
    impacted by the 'victory disease' and by the fact that the BoB wasn't
    seen to be a clear German defeat *at the time* so he eventually seems
    to have convinced himself that leaving an unconquered UK in his rear
    was no biggie ... an unfortunate delusion.

    Phil McGregor

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Phil McGregor@21:1/5 to dtravel@sonic.net on Sun Nov 17 16:39:18 2019
    XPost: alt.history, alt.history.what-if

    On Sat, 16 Nov 2019 21:36:13 -0800, Dimensional Traveler
    <dtravel@sonic.net> wrote:

    On 11/16/2019 8:15 PM, SolomonW wrote:
    On Sun, 17 Nov 2019 12:47:08 +1100, Phil McGregor wrote:

    and Goering didn't
    know that they were falling further and further behind the RAF *at the
    time*

    Hermann Göring would not have known these figures, but he did know that
    something was going wrong. At Nuremberg, he stated that the losses were
    sustainable and he could have kept going but what mucked up the NAZIs was
    the lack of shipping for Sealion. If so, the question is, what was the
    point of this air war?

    To make it safe for the shipping they did have, obviously! :P

    Not a lot of coastal shipping to protect after the French surrender!
    U-Boats and the KM surface raiders, on the other hand ...

    Slightly more realistically in Hitler's mind it was probably to punish >Britain for not surrendering and to scare them into doing so.

    Yes, I suspect this was an important factor, though I am not sure the
    evidence is conclusive enough to say that it was the only factor.

    As I said in an above post, I strongly suspect that form of 'victory
    disease' was an important factor in Hitler's thinking about the BoB
    and Sealion.

    Phil McGregor

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From SolomonW@21:1/5 to Phil McGregor on Sun Nov 17 23:58:04 2019
    XPost: alt.history, alt.history.what-if

    On Sun, 17 Nov 2019 16:35:11 +1100, Phil McGregor wrote:

    On Sun, 17 Nov 2019 15:15:35 +1100, SolomonW <SolomonW@citi.com>
    wrote:

    On Sun, 17 Nov 2019 12:47:08 +1100, Phil McGregor wrote:

    and Goering didn't
    know that they were falling further and further behind the RAF *at the
    time*

    Hermann Göring would not have known these figures, but he did know that >>something was going wrong. At Nuremberg, he stated that the losses were >>sustainable and he could have kept going but what mucked up the NAZIs was >>the lack of shipping for Sealion. If so, the question is, what was the >>point of this air war?

    He wouldn't have known the RAF figures, sure, but he knew the
    Luftwaffe figures weren't sustainable ...

    If so, he did not say it in Nuremberg.

    but afaict he believed the
    RAF losses were equally unsustainable,


    If so, then Göring would have though his losses were high it could be justified.

    ...


    Hitler certainly didn't seem to believe the losses were sustainable in
    the face of prep for Barbarossa.

    What was the point of the BoB from the Nazi PoV?


    *****
    This is the critical point, if Barbarossa goes ahead, then the air war in
    the battle of Britain is pointless for Germany, as it was conducted if
    Britain refuses to surrender.
    *****


    I am not entirely sure the Nazis had a clear agenda, or not a clear
    single agenda.

    Agreed.


    I *think* there is evidence that Hitler suffered a version of 'victory disease' and believed that he could actually stage Sealion ... which
    the Kriegsmarine, at least, had a pretty good idea they couldn't, and
    tried repeatedly to tell High Command and Hitler, who completely
    ignored them.

    At the start maybe but Hitler pretty soon decided that it was not worth the distraction for Barbarossa. He called off Sealion.


    I *think* that there is also evidence that Hitler believed that the
    BoB and the threat of Sealion would force the UK to negotiate a peace favourable to Germany

    At first agreed but later on, Hitler came to your view at (a) below.

    even though there isn't any real evidence that
    the UK would ever have considered such

    It was considered in the UK and rejected.


    and a lot of historical
    evidence to suggest the exact opposite.

    What Hitler wanted was time for his war in the East, there was considerable historical evidence from the Napoleonic era that Britain might make peace
    for a time which is all Hitler needed. A year or so of a cease-fire with Britain.




    (a)
    I am pretty sure that Hitler had some inkling that leaving an
    unconquered or at least unemasculated UK at his rear for Barbarossa
    was not a good idea ... after all, the reason for the attack in the
    West was because he believed that a two front European war was largely
    what had led to Germany's defeat in WW1. Of course, this notion was
    impacted by the 'victory disease' and by the fact that the BoB wasn't
    seen to be a clear German defeat *at the time* so he eventually seems
    to have convinced himself that leaving an unconquered UK in his rear
    was no biggie ... an unfortunate delusion.


    I agree with this too. The other issue is that time was not he felt on his side, the longer he waited, the more powerful the USSR would be.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Byker@21:1/5 to Phil McGregor on Sun Nov 17 11:14:33 2019
    XPost: alt.history, alt.history.what-if

    "Phil McGregor" wrote in message news:o581te9cofgfas735n9bv4p6cmkmgrtt57@4ax.com...

    Unfortunately, many (not all) generalist history books still rely on the beliefs expressed by the leaders in 1940 rather than on more recent, and
    more comprehensive, research.

    Of interest: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1SdO-btKuds

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Rich Rostrom@21:1/5 to SolomonW on Mon Nov 18 00:31:13 2019
    XPost: alt.history.what-if

    SolomonW <SolomonW@citi.com> wrote:

    Have you looked how deep the Russian oil fields go
    inland? I do not believe Germany could go that far
    inland.

    It might be possible to establish an airfield to
    bomb them in that area. Still, there are some
    significant problems Germany does not have much in
    the way of heavy bombers...

    The Allies with vastly greater bomber forces had only limited
    success against oil targets.

    Agreed, there is a sea route, but it requires access from the ports of
    Italy through the Mediterranean into the Black Sea.

    ???

    If the Axis controls oil in the Caucasus, and can get
    it to the Black Sea, they ship it to _Romania_, and
    thence overland by rail or up the Danube by barge.

    I doubt it, German losses are not that high yet, and
    the Germans think they are winning.

    German losses in the East had already approached 500,000.

    The Germans who survived the winter of 1941-1942 in the
    frozen fields of Russia didn't feel like they were "winning".
    --
    Nous sommes dans une pot de chambre, et nous y serons emmerdés.
    --- General Auguste-Alexandre Ducrot at Sedan, 1870.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Rich Rostrom@21:1/5 to Phil McGregor on Mon Nov 18 02:57:11 2019
    XPost: alt.history, alt.history.what-if

    Phil McGregor <aspqrz@tpg.com.au> wrote:

    ... so he eventually seems to have convinced himself
    that leaving an unconquered UK in his rear was no
    biggie ... an unfortunate delusion.

    Part of Hitler's thinking was the idea that Britain
    was hoping for a powerful continental ally to do the
    heavy lifting. By conquering the USSR, he could close
    off that hope, and _then_ Britain would see reason
    and make peace.

    BTW - in early 1941, Molotov visited Berlin. Ribbentrop
    told him that Britain was completely defeated. "Then
    whose bombers are we hiding from?" (THey were in the
    shelter under the Foreign Ministry during an air raid.)
    --
    Nous sommes dans une pot de chambre, et nous y serons emmerdés.
    --- General Auguste-Alexandre Ducrot at Sedan, 1870.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Rich Rostrom@21:1/5 to Phil McGregor on Mon Nov 18 02:52:32 2019
    XPost: alt.history, alt.history.what-if

    Phil McGregor <aspqrz@tpg.com.au> wrote:

    In fact, the RAF won the BoB handily while the leaders thought it was
    a close run thing, and the Luftwaffe lost the BoB decisively, even
    though the leaders believed they had fought the RAF to a standstill.

    Oh, yes... It's important to realize that contemporary
    perception of events may be seriously mistaken. This
    is especially true when reliable metrics were not then
    available.

    For instance, Teddy Roosevelt thought he might lose the
    US election of 1904. Chief Justice Taney thought that
    either Fillmore or Fremont would win the US election of 1856.
    --
    Nous sommes dans une pot de chambre, et nous y serons emmerdés.
    --- General Auguste-Alexandre Ducrot at Sedan, 1870.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From SolomonW@21:1/5 to Rich Rostrom on Mon Nov 18 22:26:43 2019
    XPost: alt.history.what-if

    On Mon, 18 Nov 2019 00:31:13 -0600, Rich Rostrom wrote:

    SolomonW <SolomonW@citi.com> wrote:

    Have you looked how deep the Russian oil fields go
    inland? I do not believe Germany could go that far
    inland.

    It might be possible to establish an airfield to
    bomb them in that area. Still, there are some
    significant problems Germany does not have much in
    the way of heavy bombers...

    The Allies with vastly greater bomber forces had only limited
    success against oil targets.

    Agreed, there is a sea route, but it requires access from the ports of
    Italy through the Mediterranean into the Black Sea.

    ???

    If the Axis controls oil in the Caucasus, and can get
    it to the Black Sea, they ship it to _Romania_, and
    thence overland by rail or up the Danube by barge.

    The rail was out for some reason which I am not sure why but there would be
    no ships available for the transport Of Caucasus Oil up the Danube because
    its river tankers were already working to capacity transporting Rumanian
    oil.

    Check out a book "Stopped at Stalingrad by Hayward", a short version of his argument can be found here

    I think you will find it interesting reading.

    https://www.joelhayward.org/Hitlers-Quest-Finished.pdf

    The only solution was sailing from Italy through the Meditteranean and the Black Sea. This was not going to happen because of the RN.





    I doubt it, German losses are not that high yet, and
    the Germans think they are winning.

    German losses in the East had already approached 500,000.

    The Germans who survived the winter of 1941-1942 in the
    frozen fields of Russia didn't feel like they were "winning".

    But the people at home did, Stalingrad was to be a shock.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From The Horny Goat@21:1/5 to Byker on Mon Nov 18 19:10:09 2019
    XPost: alt.history, alt.history.what-if

    On Sat, 16 Nov 2019 13:28:18 -0600, "Byker" <byker@do~rag.net> wrote:

    From what I've learned about the Battle of Britain, the Luftwaffe, despite >their high losses, had all but exhausted the RAF. The British pilots were >getting so little sleep that they nodded off at the controls and shuffled >around like zombies. By the time Der Fuhrer threw in the towel, the RAF >hadn't so much "won" the Battle of Britain as the Luftwaffe LOST it: >https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uCu7IT81gh8&t=21m22s

    Which begs the question how long could Hitler have kept it up had they
    chosen to? Could they have continued to the end of 1940 and if so how
    would Britain have responded?

    Bear in mind Churchill did seriously consider withdrawing #11 back 100
    or so miles beyond German fighter range. On the other hand both
    Coventry and Belfast were heavily bombed and both were beyond German
    fighter range.

    (The suffering in Belfast was mostly because after Coventry most AA
    guns had been withdrawn from Northern Ireland and Scotland to cover
    English cities and Belfast in particular was largely undefended which
    is how Belfast came to have the 3rd greatest civiliain losses behind
    London and Coventry - Belfast was not hit until 1941 but was badly
    damaged)

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From The Horny Goat@21:1/5 to Please re-read what I actually on Mon Nov 18 19:05:35 2019
    XPost: alt.history.what-if

    On Sat, 16 Nov 2019 22:05:30 +1100, SolomonW <SolomonW@citi.com>
    wrote:

    Or alternately a party stalwart with some military experience who
    thinks he knows a LOT more than he really does - which in my opinion
    describes Goering in 1942.

    It would depend on who Goering uses as his military advisors. His choices
    of military leaders in the Luftwaffe were overall excellent and highly >capable people.

    While I hold to my comment about Goering thinking he knew far more
    than he did I'll grant your reply which is entirely fair given the men involved. In particular I think he badly suffered in his advice after
    Milch's death.

    Taking Stalingrad was part of the original plan, AIUI.
    At the very least, German forces were to appraach
    Stalingrad and screen it from the surrounding area.

    I was suggesting Stalingrad could have been taken as part of the wide
    flanking sweep after taking Voronezh and the Germans could have had it
    firmly in hand by the first snow. This PROBABLY severs rail transport
    of oil from the Caucasus. For the reasons I've expressed several times
    denial of Caucasian oil to the Red Army is far more devastating to
    Russia than merely holding the oilfields in the Caucasus and without
    the infrastructure to transport the oil the oil itself is never going
    to reach either Germany or the Wehrmacht in a refined form suitable
    for running tanks and aircraft.

    I would argue that even with a Soviet surrender it's going to be late
    1943 at the earliest before refined Caucasian oil does the German
    cause any benefit.

    Then 6th Army bogged down at Stalingrad, and 4th Panzer
    was turned again, to the NE, to help capture Stalingrad.
    4th Panzer quickly overran the entire southern half of
    the city. It was in the north that 6th Army got into the
    brutal street fight.

    I would argue the campaign was lost around the time the phrase 'house
    to house fighting continues in Stalingrad" went out on the German
    radio waves.

    I am convinced Stalingrad was there for the taking in the summer of
    1942 but that the attack degenerated into a frontal assault rather
    than a flanking maneuver. And we all know what happened after that.

    If the attack on the oil fields were stopped a flanking attack is possible. >It is not an easy operation as the Volga has to be crossed first.

    Understood but in my scenario taking and holding a large segment of
    the Russian rail net from the Russian heartland to the oilfields would
    have been the real target and THAT is a considerably easier task than
    grabbing the fields themselves.

    Denying Soviet use of Caucasian oil is FAR easier than making use of
    it oneself.

    Not likely. 1st Panzer was literally out of fuel, 200 km
    from the north end of the Caspian Gates. It would take
    a major extension of German effort to get to there. Then
    they have to fight through the Gates: the narrow strip
    between the Caspian Sea and the eastern Caucasus, about
    300 km more. There might not be a lot of Soviet troops
    in the area, but the US and Britain could send
    reinforcements from Iran.

    If that's so why was it not requested and sent during 1942? Obviously
    in 1943 and 1944 this was a non-factor for the Red Army as the Germans
    had been driven back.

    I do think the Germans could have cut off Russian access to Caucasian
    oil. However unless they captured the fields intact (ha!!) they had
    little hope of extracting economically significant amounts of oil
    witihin the frst 18 months after capture. Rich (amongst others) will
    recall our chat on that subject 3-4 years back. The short version is
    that having 100,000 barrels of oil 2000 miles from Germany does not
    help the German economy if you do not have an effective method of
    transporting it to the Reich. On the other hand, reducing the Soviet
    supply of oil by 100,000 barrels DOES hurt the Red Army and is
    infinitely more achieveable than transporting the same oil from the
    Caucasus to the Reich.

    Have you looked how deep the Russian oil fields go inland? I do not believe >Germany could go that far inland.

    Agreed - my point is even if the Germans had done that they were not
    in a position to build the infrastructure needed to exploit the oil
    for their own needs. Nor do I see them doing so while the Red Army
    continues to resist.

    It might be possible to establish an airfield to bomb them in that area. >Still, there are some significant problems Germany does not have much in
    the way of heavy bombers, supplying strategic bombers from so deep in >Russia, the Soviet airforce is growing rapidly and as later experience
    showed oil fields are not that vulnerable to air assault.

    Was wondering what you thought the Germans were going to bomb with -
    they simply didn't have anything in the class of the B-17 which was
    far from the heaviest Allied bomber in mid-war. Look at what Hamburg
    was hit with in 1943 for an example - that type of raid was well
    beyond Luftwaffe capabilities to inflict on the Russians or anybody
    else.

    Now, whether the 3rd Reich would have been able to
    exploit those oil fields is another matter.

    Not any time soon. The Germans captured a lesser oilfield
    at Maikop, north of the western Caucasus, in early August.
    The Soviets trashed it before withdrawing. The Germans held
    it until January 1943. They sent a group of oil-field techs
    to get it working, but got essentially nothing in five months.

    I heard they got enough for 10 tanks for one month and nothing more.
    Obviously that's not going to defeat the Soviet Union. As for a
    preferred plan see above.

    My previous point about transporting oil via pipeline (and do you have
    any idea how hard it is to defend a pipeline - even if you magically
    had one nearly 2000 miles long - against a determined partisan force?

    Agreed, there is a sea route, but it requires access from the ports of
    Italy through the Mediterranean into the Black Sea. It would not happen >because of the British RN.

    Even if the Germans magically captured Turkey Iraq and Kuwait the only
    way to move enough oil to Germany would have been at the cost of mass
    Turkish starvation. People tend to assume the wartime Turkish rail net
    was as capable as 2019 - it simply wasn't either up to the task of
    supplying a German INFANTRY army much less a Panzer army while meeting
    Turkish domestic needs. If the Germans put their military needs first
    how long is it going to take for semi-starving Turkish partisans to
    block a few rail lines?

    And that's with NO resistance from the Turkish army (yeah right)

    By late 1942, most Germans were less concerned with
    victory than with avoiding catastrophic defeat, and
    with the on-going cost of the war. Ending the Eastern
    Front would be a colossal relief. A lot of young men
    would be thinking "I'm not going to die."

    That's a reason assumption in the spring of 1943 - far less so before
    the destruction of 6th army.

    I doubt it, German loses are not that high yet, and the Germans think they >are winning. Not that it matters; it is not like the masses in Germany or >Russia have much of a vote in the war.

    Please re-read what I actually said - it sounds like you and I agree.

    On the other side, Stalin might be happy to get his
    cookies back and rebuild while Germany fought it out
    with the US and UK.

    There were actual peace negotiations in the spring of 1943. Stalin
    wanted the 1941 boundary, Hitler wanted the Dniepr. Since there was no
    deal they fought it out.

    This is shrouded in mystery, but I am confident that if such a meeting did >take place, we would have real evidence that it did take place. My view is >that anti-Soviets were only too glad to support and spread such stories.

    Why would it be in Soviet interests (either before or after 1956) to
    have the UK and USA think the Soviets were not fully in the Allied
    camp in 1943 or anytime before or since?

    What we know is that there are some references to a possible meeting in >Stockholm in early 43 with some low-level officals of both countries. I
    have also read in a reference that a significant Soviet official came to >Stockholm to talk and no-one came from Germany came to see him. The
    proposed meeting may have been aborted. Another set of low-level meetings
    may have occurred in mid-June or late 43, initiated allegedly by the
    Soviets.

    Can't remember which book but I seem to remember hearing Molotov's
    name which in 1943 is about as close to Stalin as one gets unless one
    is assuming a Soviet Hess.

    Stalin might have been in early 1943, wavering on what he should do so. At >the same time, Ribbentrop has some freedom to explore as Hitler then wanted
    a separate peace. As we know that Ribbentrop was interested, he might have >put some feelers out for a separate peace. Like Goering, he did not want a >war with Russia. Hitler then decided that it was best to wait till he got a >victory at Kursk that would allow him possibly to negotiate something out
    of the Russian campaign. Strategically he lost Kursk, and that was it.

    I'm skeptical about that story - I find the idea of Soviet demands for
    the 1941 frontier and Germany wanting the Dniepr far more plausible.

    As you say, they then fought Kursk as which if Stalin ever did have
    any ideas about stopping before Berlin they quickly disappeared.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From The Horny Goat@21:1/5 to All on Mon Nov 18 21:39:25 2019
    XPost: alt.history, alt.history.what-if

    On Sun, 17 Nov 2019 12:47:08 +1100, Phil McGregor <aspqrz@tpg.com.au>
    wrote:

    The RAF was benefitting from the Empire Air Training Scheme which
    produced hundreds of pilots and aircrew every month in excess of
    operational needs.

    Was that really true in 1940? I know the Canadian arm of that really
    only hit its stride in 1941 and really contributed in 42-43 but
    despite the presence of 1st Canadian division in England in September
    1940 (when it would have been the most powerful unit in England at the
    time of the Sealon that never was - long before 1943-44 when the Yanks
    were 'over-sexed, over-paid and over here") I am not aware the RCAF
    had much influence during the battle of Britain. And that was the
    largest element of the Empire ATS.

    The RAF pilot total *increased* every month during the Battle of
    Britain - the Luftwaffe pilot total *decreased* every month in the
    same time period.

    RAF Fighter Pilots: ~800 in July, 950 in August, ~1050 in Spetember,
    ~1200 in October, ~1400 in November)

    RAF Pilot Losses: 68 in Julyt, 176 in August, 123 in September, 120 in >October (Total = 487)

    Luftwaffe Fighter Pilots: ~500 in July, ~450 in August, ~375 in >September-October-November.

    Luftwaffe Pilot Losses: 348 in July, 993 in August, 829 in September,
    492 in October (Total = 2662)

    The number of operational fighters available to the RAF in the SE and
    S operational areas remained much the same during the Battle ... and
    these were first line Hurricanes and Spitfires ... while the number of >operational fighters available to the Luftwaffe (which included duds
    like the Me-110) decreased dramatically during the same period.

    RAF Fighters: ~850 in July, ~900 in August-September, ~800 in >October-November.

    Luftwaffe Fighters: ~800 in July, ~750 in August, ~600 in >September-October-November.

    Then, when you look at the number of sorties flown per day, the RAF
    flew as many as 10 for every one the Luftwaffe flew except during some
    weeks in august when they flew between 30-50% more. Giving them much
    more bang for their pounds.

    More importantly, between the Home Guard (which watched for downed RAF
    pilots and of whom one of their main roles in 1940 was returning
    pilots to their units) and the Royal Navy (particularly the RNVR) who
    recovered ejected pilots over the Channel and North Sea, many shot
    down pilots quickly returned to their units whereas a German pilot
    shot down over the UK learned what POW meant. (Many of whom ended up
    in Canada and later the US)

    The thing is, we know all this with the benefit of postwar 20:20
    hindsight ... Churchill didn't know that the RAF was increasing in
    strength vis a vis the Luftwaffe *at the time* ... and Goering didn't
    know that they were falling further and further behind the RAF *at the
    time* ... we only know this from the data becoming available post WW2.

    Interesting - what's your source on this? I've read Churchill's 6
    volume history and didn't see any mention of that (those books were
    written mostly 1948-52 if that helps)

    In fact, the RAF won the BoB handily while the leaders thought it was
    a close run thing, and the Luftwaffe lost the BoB decisively, even
    though the leaders believed they had fought the RAF to a standstill.
    Even so, the Air Ministry had realised by early 1941 that the BoB had
    been won, though the magnitude of the victory wasn't fully understood
    til German records could be examined after the war.

    In fairness Churchill spoke many times on the RAF and he definitely
    knew that praising them was very good for public morale.

    Unfortunately, many (not all) generalist history books still rely on
    the beliefs expressed by the leaders in 1940 rather than on more
    recent, and more comprehensive, research.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From The Horny Goat@21:1/5 to All on Mon Nov 18 21:48:50 2019
    XPost: alt.history, alt.history.what-if

    On Sun, 17 Nov 2019 23:58:04 +1100, SolomonW <SolomonW@citi.com>
    wrote:

    I agree with this too. The other issue is that time was not he felt on his >side, the longer he waited, the more powerful the USSR would be.

    Given when the battle for France ended I do not think a 1940 assault
    could have been attempted unless the even more insane idea that an
    attack could have been launched with France undamaged in the rear.

    No question the Russian winter of 1940-41 was far milder than 1941-42
    but there was not nearly the time left in the 1940 campaigning season
    to do nearly the damage to the Red Army that was done in OTL's 1941.

    (And yes I do think the Germans could have stopped the French close to
    their western frontier - and bear in mind that Mussolini only entered
    the war after Dunkirk and the German approach to Paris.)

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From The Horny Goat@21:1/5 to All on Mon Nov 18 22:06:40 2019
    XPost: alt.history, alt.history.what-if

    On Sun, 17 Nov 2019 16:39:18 +1100, Phil McGregor <aspqrz@tpg.com.au>
    wrote:

    Not a lot of coastal shipping to protect after the French surrender!
    U-Boats and the KM surface raiders, on the other hand ...

    Are you talking about the British or Germans? If the latter don't
    forget that Germany still had the power to evacuate 1/4 million people (somewhat comparable to Dunkirk) from the Baltic States even in 1945.

    Slightly more realistically in Hitler's mind it was probably to punish >>Britain for not surrendering and to scare them into doing so.

    In my opinion this was THE single most important contribution of
    Churchill. Who else but WSC could have said "we shall fight them on
    the beaches, we shall never surrender"? (Admittedly and with MUCH less
    fanfare he ALSO said that he would deploy poison and biological
    weapons on the beaches of England if a Sealion occured and they were
    in any danger of seizing a port. For obvious reasons discussions of
    poison gas on English soil didn't get the fanfare that "we shall never surrender" got - although to be fair that particular speech was
    written more for FDR's benefit than the British people generally

    Yes, I suspect this was an important factor, though I am not sure the >evidence is conclusive enough to say that it was the only factor.

    As I said in an above post, I strongly suspect that form of 'victory
    disease' was an important factor in Hitler's thinking about the BoB
    and Sealion.

    Very true - and a smashed Sealion would tell the world the complete
    opposite. When you look at the suicide of Langsdorf (captain of the
    Graf Spee) you can readily see Hitler wasn't the only one with that
    attitude.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From The Horny Goat@21:1/5 to rrostrom@comcast.net on Mon Nov 18 22:08:59 2019
    XPost: alt.history.what-if

    On Mon, 18 Nov 2019 00:31:13 -0600, Rich Rostrom
    <rrostrom@comcast.net> wrote:

    If the Axis controls oil in the Caucasus, and can get
    it to the Black Sea, they ship it to _Romania_, and
    thence overland by rail or up the Danube by barge.

    Where would these tanker ships be constructed? With respect Romania
    isn't exactly known as a shipbuilding nation to put it mildly.

    I doubt it, German losses are not that high yet, and
    the Germans think they are winning.

    German losses in the East had already approached 500,000.

    The Germans who survived the winter of 1941-1942 in the
    frozen fields of Russia didn't feel like they were "winning".

    By April-May 1942 they certainly did.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From SolomonW@21:1/5 to The Horny Goat on Tue Nov 19 17:37:59 2019
    XPost: alt.history.what-if

    On Mon, 18 Nov 2019 19:05:35 -0800, The Horny Goat wrote:


    ..




    Taking Stalingrad was part of the original plan, AIUI.
    At the very least, German forces were to appraach
    Stalingrad and screen it from the surrounding area.

    I was suggesting Stalingrad could have been taken as part of the wide flanking sweep after taking Voronezh and the Germans could have had it
    firmly in hand by the first snow.

    This PROBABLY severs rail transport
    of oil from the Caucasus.


    The rail transport through Stalingrad was cut, but many Russian railway
    lines bypassed Stalingrad in the area. These were what was used by the Russians.


    I refer you to this discussion that I think is relevant here.

    https://www.quora.com/Why-didnt-the-Germans-just-bypass-Stalingrad-in-World-War-II

    Holding Stalingrad in 1942 gives Germany a strong base to attack in 1943.
    Your campaign to deny Russia the oil can only start then. One problem I do
    see is logistics. The Germans were struggling to get enough supplies into Stalingrad even before the Russians cut it off, with your plan they need to keep even more troops there.

    ..




    On the other side, Stalin might be happy to get his
    cookies back and rebuild while Germany fought it out
    with the US and UK.

    There were actual peace negotiations in the spring of 1943. Stalin
    wanted the 1941 boundary, Hitler wanted the Dniepr. Since there was no
    deal they fought it out.

    This is shrouded in mystery, but I am confident that if such a meeting did >>take place, we would have real evidence that it did take place. My view is >>that anti-Soviets were only too glad to support and spread such stories.

    Why would it be in Soviet interests (either before or after 1956) to
    have the UK and USA think the Soviets were not fully in the Allied
    camp in 1943 or anytime before or since?


    Agreed but surely if such a meeting took place, German sources would be available e.g. Ribbentrop and Goering.



    What we know is that there are some references to a possible meeting in >>Stockholm in early 43 with some low-level officals of both countries. I >>have also read in a reference that a significant Soviet official came to >>Stockholm to talk and no-one came from Germany came to see him. The >>proposed meeting may have been aborted. Another set of low-level meetings >>may have occurred in mid-June or late 43, initiated allegedly by the >>Soviets.

    Can't remember which book but I seem to remember hearing Molotov's
    name which in 1943 is about as close to Stalin as one gets unless one
    is assuming a Soviet Hess.


    Yes, Molotov is mentioned in this context, for all it worth Molotov denied
    it.



    Stalin might have been in early 1943, wavering on what he should do so. At >>the same time, Ribbentrop has some freedom to explore as Hitler then wanted >>a separate peace. As we know that Ribbentrop was interested, he might have >>put some feelers out for a separate peace. Like Goering, he did not want a >>war with Russia. Hitler then decided that it was best to wait till he got a >>victory at Kursk that would allow him possibly to negotiate something out >>of the Russian campaign. Strategically he lost Kursk, and that was it.

    I'm skeptical about that story - I find the idea of Soviet demands for
    the 1941 frontier and Germany wanting the Dniepr far more plausible.

    As you say, they then fought Kursk as which if Stalin ever did have
    any ideas about stopping before Berlin they quickly disappeared.

    I am not sure whether we agree here or not, but I think we do.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From SolomonW@21:1/5 to The Horny Goat on Tue Nov 19 17:48:26 2019
    XPost: alt.history, alt.history.what-if

    On Mon, 18 Nov 2019 21:39:25 -0800, The Horny Goat wrote:

    On Sun, 17 Nov 2019 12:47:08 +1100, Phil McGregor <aspqrz@tpg.com.au>
    wrote:

    The RAF was benefitting from the Empire Air Training Scheme which
    produced hundreds of pilots and aircrew every month in excess of >>operational needs.

    Was that really true in 1940? I know the Canadian arm of that really
    only hit its stride in 1941 and really contributed in 42-43 but
    despite the presence of 1st Canadian division in England in September
    1940 (when it would have been the most powerful unit in England at the
    time of the Sealon that never was - long before 1943-44 when the Yanks
    were 'over-sexed, over-paid and over here") I am not aware the RCAF
    had much influence during the battle of Britain. And that was the
    largest element of the Empire ATS.

    From what I understand, most of it was in this period run through Canada.
    The pilots were trained in Australia, then sent to Canada for more training
    and only then to battle. It was only in late 1940, that the first of these pilots were in action but which stage the battle of Britain was over.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From The Horny Goat@21:1/5 to All on Tue Nov 19 07:06:42 2019
    XPost: alt.history.what-if

    On Tue, 19 Nov 2019 17:37:59 +1100, SolomonW <SolomonW@citi.com>
    wrote:

    Stalin might have been in early 1943, wavering on what he should do so. At >>>the same time, Ribbentrop has some freedom to explore as Hitler then wanted >>>a separate peace. As we know that Ribbentrop was interested, he might have >>>put some feelers out for a separate peace. Like Goering, he did not want a >>>war with Russia. Hitler then decided that it was best to wait till he got a >>>victory at Kursk that would allow him possibly to negotiate something out >>>of the Russian campaign. Strategically he lost Kursk, and that was it.

    I'm skeptical about that story - I find the idea of Soviet demands for
    the 1941 frontier and Germany wanting the Dniepr far more plausible.

    As you say, they then fought Kursk as which if Stalin ever did have
    any ideas about stopping before Berlin they quickly disappeared.

    I am not sure whether we agree here or not, but I think we do.

    Yup.

    Best summary I ever heard was from Jim Dunnigan who said 'Stalingrad
    proved the Germans couldn't win, Kursk proved the Soviets couldn't
    lose'.

    In my opinion Dunnigan backed up that view with his games the most
    interesting of which were based on battles of the spring of 1943.
    First he did Panzerblitz (produced under contract with Avalon Hill)
    then a whole series of games under his own SPI label. Most of the
    games before Stalingrad and after Kursk had their victory conditions
    set in terms of just how bad the final situation was for the Soviets
    and Germans respectively.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From The Horny Goat@21:1/5 to All on Tue Nov 19 07:01:28 2019
    XPost: alt.history, alt.history.what-if

    On Tue, 19 Nov 2019 17:48:26 +1100, SolomonW <SolomonW@citi.com>
    wrote:

    Was that really true in 1940? I know the Canadian arm of that really
    only hit its stride in 1941 and really contributed in 42-43 but
    despite the presence of 1st Canadian division in England in September
    1940 (when it would have been the most powerful unit in England at the
    time of the Sealon that never was - long before 1943-44 when the Yanks
    were 'over-sexed, over-paid and over here") I am not aware the RCAF
    had much influence during the battle of Britain. And that was the
    largest element of the Empire ATS.

    From what I understand, most of it was in this period run through Canada.
    The pilots were trained in Australia, then sent to Canada for more training >and only then to battle. It was only in late 1940, that the first of these >pilots were in action but which stage the battle of Britain was over.

    OK so pretty much what I remember - that Battle of Britain was pretty
    much over by late Oct 1940 (though as said previously Belfast was Feb
    and May 1941 and was the 3rd heaviest hit city after London and
    Coventry) so if I remembered Spring 1941 and it was actually Nov/Dec
    1940 that's reasonably close particularly in terms of where the
    fighting was. By Nov/Dec Churchill was shipping air reinforcements to
    North Africa...

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Rich Rostrom@21:1/5 to The Horny Goat on Tue Nov 19 09:20:24 2019
    XPost: alt.history, alt.history.what-if

    The Horny Goat <lcraver@home.ca> wrote:

    Who else but WSC could have said "we shall fight
    them on the beaches, we shall never surrender"?

    Churchill himself said "It was the British people who
    had the lion's heart; I was merely privileged to give
    the lion's roar."
    --
    Nous sommes dans une pot de chambre, et nous y serons emmerdés.
    --- General Auguste-Alexandre Ducrot at Sedan, 1870.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Rich Rostrom@21:1/5 to The Horny Goat on Tue Nov 19 09:29:55 2019
    XPost: alt.history.what-if

    The Horny Goat <lcraver@home.ca> wrote:

    the US and Britain could send
    reinforcements from Iran.

    If that's so why was it not requested and sent during 1942?

    US/UK troops weren't needed; the Germans
    were stopped over 450 km from Baku.
    --
    Nous sommes dans une pot de chambre, et nous y serons emmerdés.
    --- General Auguste-Alexandre Ducrot at Sedan, 1870.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Rich Rostrom@21:1/5 to SolomonW on Tue Nov 19 09:37:16 2019
    XPost: alt.history.what-if

    SolomonW <SolomonW@citi.com> wrote:

    The rail transport through Stalingrad was cut, but
    many Russian railway lines bypassed Stalingrad in
    the area. These were what was used by the Russians.

    ????

    East of Stalingrad is the completely empty
    Caspian Depression. There is a rail line
    along the Volga to Astrakhan, and thence
    along the Caspian coast to the Caucasus.

    The only other rail connection from Russia
    runs SE from Rostov.

    Well east of Stalingrad, there was a single
    rail line from the southern Urals to the
    northeast corner of the Caspian Sea, but
    it didn't connect to Astrakhan.
    --
    Nous sommes dans une pot de chambre, et nous y serons emmerdés.
    --- General Auguste-Alexandre Ducrot at Sedan, 1870.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Rich Rostrom@21:1/5 to The Horny Goat on Tue Nov 19 09:24:09 2019
    XPost: alt.history, alt.history.what-if

    The Horny Goat <lcraver@home.ca> wrote:

    (Many of whom ended up in Canada and later the US)

    And one of whom got back to Germany...

    "The One That Got Away"
    --
    Nous sommes dans une pot de chambre, et nous y serons emmerdés.
    --- General Auguste-Alexandre Ducrot at Sedan, 1870.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Phil McGregor@21:1/5 to All on Wed Nov 20 10:43:56 2019
    XPost: alt.history, alt.history.what-if

    On Mon, 18 Nov 2019 22:06:40 -0800, The Horny Goat <lcraver@home.ca>
    wrote:

    On Sun, 17 Nov 2019 16:39:18 +1100, Phil McGregor <aspqrz@tpg.com.au>
    wrote:

    Not a lot of coastal shipping to protect after the French surrender! >>U-Boats and the KM surface raiders, on the other hand ...

    Are you talking about the British or Germans? If the latter don't
    forget that Germany still had the power to evacuate 1/4 million people >(somewhat comparable to Dunkirk) from the Baltic States even in 1945.

    Indeed.

    Two words.

    Wilhelm Gustloff.

    Sure, the Germans had merchant ships in the Baltic. They were *needed*
    in the Baltic to ship, amongst other things, Swedish Iron ore and
    supplies for Barbarossa.

    They didn't risk them in the English Channel or North Sea where the RN
    would have trashed them.

    Phil

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Phil McGregor@21:1/5 to All on Wed Nov 20 10:58:13 2019
    XPost: alt.history, alt.history.what-if

    On Mon, 18 Nov 2019 21:39:25 -0800, The Horny Goat <lcraver@home.ca>
    wrote:

    On Sun, 17 Nov 2019 12:47:08 +1100, Phil McGregor <aspqrz@tpg.com.au>
    wrote:

    The RAF was benefitting from the Empire Air Training Scheme which
    produced hundreds of pilots and aircrew every month in excess of >>operational needs.

    Was that really true in 1940? I know the Canadian arm of that really
    only hit its stride in 1941 and really contributed in 42-43 but
    despite the presence of 1st Canadian division in England in September
    1940 (when it would have been the most powerful unit in England at the
    time of the Sealon that never was - long before 1943-44 when the Yanks
    were 'over-sexed, over-paid and over here") I am not aware the RCAF
    had much influence during the battle of Britain. And that was the
    largest element of the Empire ATS.

    The Scheme was supposed to train 22000 a year from the UK alone. Sure,
    the Canadians didn't start until the end of April 1940.

    The first pilots from Australia arrived at the end of October.

    But Britain was already training pilots and, as you can see from the
    figures I provided, the number of Fighter Pilots increased overall
    every month ... by hundreds.

    What's interesting is that this figure doesn't cover the actual number
    of Pilots involved ... the overall figure (Pilots flying at least one
    sortie) is 2937 ... a thousand more than the 1400 November figure and
    the 487 losses.

    Figures are all available online.

    The thing is, we know all this with the benefit of postwar 20:20
    hindsight ... Churchill didn't know that the RAF was increasing in
    strength vis a vis the Luftwaffe *at the time* ... and Goering didn't
    know that they were falling further and further behind the RAF *at the >>time* ... we only know this from the data becoming available post WW2.

    Interesting - what's your source on this? I've read Churchill's 6
    volume history and didn't see any mention of that (those books were
    written mostly 1948-52 if that helps)

    Well, the Air Ministry, as noted below, realised that the BoB had been
    won in 1941.

    I guess Churchill didn't emphasise it partly because it didn't suit
    the heroic narrative he was selling in those books and partly because
    he wrote them (IIRC) without specific reference (in them) to any
    primary or even secondary sources

    In fact, the RAF won the BoB handily while the leaders thought it was
    a close run thing, and the Luftwaffe lost the BoB decisively, even
    though the leaders believed they had fought the RAF to a standstill.
    Even so, the Air Ministry had realised by early 1941 that the BoB had
    been won, though the magnitude of the victory wasn't fully understood
    til German records could be examined after the war.

    In fairness Churchill spoke many times on the RAF and he definitely
    knew that praising them was very good for public morale.

    Indeed. And selling the heroic myth of 'The Few' played as well after
    the war.

    Phil McGregor

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  • From The Horny Goat@21:1/5 to rrostrom@comcast.net on Tue Nov 19 16:28:12 2019
    XPost: alt.history.what-if

    On Tue, 19 Nov 2019 09:29:55 -0600, Rich Rostrom
    <rrostrom@comcast.net> wrote:

    The Horny Goat <lcraver@home.ca> wrote:

    the US and Britain could send
    reinforcements from Iran.

    If that's so why was it not requested and sent during 1942?

    US/UK troops weren't needed; the Germans
    were stopped over 450 km from Baku.

    Sorry I just assumed anybody reading that would know the Germans got
    nowhere near Baku in 1942.

    Surely anybody replying to a WI relating to the 1942 German campaign
    in Russia would have looked at least once at a map even if they didn't
    know the geography. (I wouldn't have needed a map beyond finding out a
    more exact answer than 'one helluva long way from Stalingrad'!)

    The alternate German campaign in 1942 would have had the Germans turn
    north after the capture of Voronezh trying to encircle Moscow. Had
    they tried that it probably would have been a worse WW1 type battle
    than Stalingrad as Moscow was fairly heaviliy fortified by the spring
    of 1942 and while I could see a German siege of Moscow don't see them
    having the strength to take it. By 1942 Moscow was far more heavily
    fortified than Stalingrad.

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  • From Phil McGregor@21:1/5 to All on Wed Nov 20 11:02:30 2019
    XPost: alt.history, alt.history.what-if

    On Tue, 19 Nov 2019 17:48:26 +1100, SolomonW <SolomonW@citi.com>
    wrote:

    From what I understand, most of it was in this period run through Canada.
    The pilots were trained in Australia, then sent to Canada for more training >and only then to battle. It was only in late 1940, that the first of these >pilots were in action but which stage the battle of Britain was over.

    True, to a point.

    The EATS was supposed to train 50,000 a year ... 28,000 in the
    Dominions and Colonies and the remaining 22,000 in the UK.

    So it was the UK cohort of the EATS who bolstered the pilot numbers consistently during the BoB.

    Phil McGregor

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  • From The Horny Goat@21:1/5 to All on Tue Nov 19 16:33:01 2019
    XPost: alt.history, alt.history.what-if

    On Wed, 20 Nov 2019 10:43:56 +1100, Phil McGregor <aspqrz@tpg.com.au>
    wrote:

    Are you talking about the British or Germans? If the latter don't
    forget that Germany still had the power to evacuate 1/4 million people >>(somewhat comparable to Dunkirk) from the Baltic States even in 1945.

    Indeed.

    Two words.

    Wilhelm Gustloff.

    Sure, the Germans had merchant ships in the Baltic. They were *needed*
    in the Baltic to ship, amongst other things, Swedish Iron ore and
    supplies for Barbarossa.

    They didn't risk them in the English Channel or North Sea where the RN
    would have trashed them.

    Phil

    I don't know the name you're referencing but no question given the
    importance of Swedish iron ore in the German economy there's no way
    the Germans would have risked those freighters in the North Sea.

    The operation against Narvik was probably the riskiest operation
    undertken by the Wehrmacht in the entire war. Had the British taken
    and held Narvik I have no doubt the Brits would have invaded Northern
    Sweden sometime between 1941-43 to take the iron fields even knowing
    the Swedish army was at least 5 times the size of the 1940 Norwegian
    army.

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  • From The Horny Goat@21:1/5 to All on Tue Nov 19 17:55:27 2019
    XPost: alt.history, alt.history.what-if

    On Wed, 20 Nov 2019 10:58:13 +1100, Phil McGregor <aspqrz@tpg.com.au>
    wrote:

    But Britain was already training pilots and, as you can see from the
    figures I provided, the number of Fighter Pilots increased overall
    every month ... by hundreds.

    What's interesting is that this figure doesn't cover the actual number
    of Pilots involved ... the overall figure (Pilots flying at least one
    sortie) is 2937 ... a thousand more than the 1400 November figure and
    the 487 losses.

    Figures are all available online.

    Is that the entire RAF or is it just 11 Fighter Group? (The one
    covering SE England especially London)

    The thing is, we know all this with the benefit of postwar 20:20 >>>hindsight ... Churchill didn't know that the RAF was increasing in >>>strength vis a vis the Luftwaffe *at the time* ... and Goering didn't >>>know that they were falling further and further behind the RAF *at the >>>time* ... we only know this from the data becoming available post WW2.

    Interesting - what's your source on this? I've read Churchill's 6
    volume history and didn't see any mention of that (those books were
    written mostly 1948-52 if that helps)

    Well, the Air Ministry, as noted below, realised that the BoB had been
    won in 1941.

    Which is why Belfast people were so irate about the bombings in Feb
    and May 1941 - nearly all the AA guns had been moved to southern
    England and there were only a few fighters. The view in London was
    that the Luftwaffe bombers wouldn't go beyond fighter range so cities
    beyond that line didn't need much air defence.

    Which was mostly true until Belfast was hit and defences were NOT
    improved in the three months before the second raid. The point of
    course is that Liverpool and Belfast were the two most important
    shipbuilding cities in the UK and #3 wasn't close.

    (My maternal grandmother's father was one of the shipbuilders who
    built the Titanic in those same yards. No great distinction - it was
    by far the largest employment project in Belfast in 1907-11 and if you
    were a Belfast tradesman and any good at your trade at all they hired
    you! Despite its sinking the White Star Line did built 2 more Titanic
    class ships both of which served for 30+ years. There has been only
    one ship sunk by an iceberg since then and that was in 1943 when
    U-boats were more worrisome than icebergs... )

    During one of the raids a German bomber got lost and managed to drop
    his load on Dublin destroying the synagogue there. The next day De
    Valera called in the German ambassador and told him he WOULD pay for
    the rebuilding of the synagogue and if he wouldn't he would call
    Churchill who undoubtedly would. The synagogue had their centenary in
    1992 and it is said the rabbi took great pleasure in telling onlookers
    that they were worshipping in the only synagogue ever built by the
    Third Reich!

    I guess Churchill didn't emphasise it partly because it didn't suit
    the heroic narrative he was selling in those books and partly because
    he wrote them (IIRC) without specific reference (in them) to any
    primary or even secondary sources

    Likely true - by 1948-52 he was Leader of the Opposition and a big
    priority of his was polishing the mystique of 1939-45 towards the next election.

    Indeed. And selling the heroic myth of 'The Few' played as well after
    the war.

    Absolutely - did you ever listen to his 8 May 1945 "This is your
    victory" speech from the Ministry of Health? (That's the one where he
    leads the crowd in Land of Hope and Glory at the end) That speech
    absolutely supports your point.

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  • From John Dallman@21:1/5 to The Horny Goat on Wed Nov 20 08:48:00 2019
    In article <ce69ted0tfihqu0731l9306841b2jqkekm@4ax.com>, lcraver@home.ca
    (The Horny Goat) wrote:

    On Wed, 20 Nov 2019 10:58:13 +1100, Phil McGregor
    <aspqrz@tpg.com.au> wrote:

    What's interesting is that this figure doesn't cover the actual
    number of Pilots involved ... the overall figure (Pilots flying
    at least one sortie) is 2937 ... a thousand more than the 1400
    November figure and the 487 losses.

    Is that the entire RAF or is it just 11 Fighter Group? (The one
    covering SE England especially London)

    The groups didn't have fixed compositions. Squadrons were rotated out to
    10 and 12 groups, and squadrons from those groups were rotated in to take
    their place. So most, maybe all, of the fighter squadrons based in the UK
    had some time in 11 group during the battle.

    John

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  • From SolomonW@21:1/5 to The Horny Goat on Wed Nov 20 19:27:30 2019
    XPost: alt.history, alt.history.what-if

    On Tue, 19 Nov 2019 17:55:27 -0800, The Horny Goat wrote:

    During one of the raids a German bomber got lost and managed to drop
    his load on Dublin destroying the synagogue there. The next day De
    Valera called in the German ambassador and told him he WOULD pay for
    the rebuilding of the synagogue and if he wouldn't he would call
    Churchill who undoubtedly would. The synagogue had their centenary in
    1992 and it is said the rabbi took great pleasure in telling onlookers
    that they were worshipping in the only synagogue ever built by the
    Third Reich!

    Nice story

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  • From SolomonW@21:1/5 to Rich Rostrom on Wed Nov 20 20:01:15 2019
    XPost: alt.history.what-if

    On Tue, 19 Nov 2019 09:37:16 -0600, Rich Rostrom wrote:

    SolomonW <SolomonW@citi.com> wrote:

    The rail transport through Stalingrad was cut, but
    many Russian railway lines bypassed Stalingrad in
    the area. These were what was used by the Russians.

    ????

    East of Stalingrad is the completely empty
    Caspian Depression. There is a rail line
    along the Volga to Astrakhan, and thence
    along the Caspian coast to the Caucasus.

    The only other rail connection from Russia
    runs SE from Rostov.

    Well east of Stalingrad, there was a single
    rail line from the southern Urals to the
    northeast corner of the Caspian Sea, but
    it didn't connect to Astrakhan.



    The Germans did block the railway line through Stalingrad. The Russian oil
    did flow so the Russians must have had some way of transporting it. To the Russian military in ww2, the flow of oil from Baku never stopped.



    This is a railway map of Russia 1942.



    http://users.tpg.com.au/adslbam9//Railways1941.png



    Unfortunately in Russian, which I cannot read but if you look at the
    bottom in the south, you will see Baku (as Baky).

    A bit higher you will
    see Stalingrad (ŇŢŰÓŢÓŕĐÔ)

    If you follow the lines, you will see that much
    of the railway is in German hands, the Russian railway network did connect notably to Saratov (ÁĐŕĐâŢŇ) which you will see if look around Stalingrad.
    This was in ww2, the major Russian railway point in the region.

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  • From SolomonW@21:1/5 to Phil McGregor on Wed Nov 20 22:38:22 2019
    XPost: alt.history, alt.history.what-if

    On Wed, 20 Nov 2019 11:02:30 +1100, Phil McGregor wrote:

    On Tue, 19 Nov 2019 17:48:26 +1100, SolomonW <SolomonW@citi.com>
    wrote:

    From what I understand, most of it was in this period run through Canada. >>The pilots were trained in Australia, then sent to Canada for more training >>and only then to battle. It was only in late 1940, that the first of these >>pilots were in action but which stage the battle of Britain was over.

    True, to a point.

    The EATS was supposed to train 50,000 a year ... 28,000 in the
    Dominions and Colonies and the remaining 22,000 in the UK.

    So it was the UK cohort of the EATS who bolstered the pilot numbers consistently during the BoB.

    Phil McGregor


    Reading the Wiki, I doubt that it was UK EATS, the first of these EATS was
    sent to Britain in Oct 1941.

    https://www.wikiwand.com/en/British_Commonwealth_Air_Training_Plan

    "The United Kingdom was considered an unsuitable location for air training,
    due to the possibility of enemy attack, the strain caused by wartime
    traffic at airfields and the unpredictable weather, so the plan called for
    the facilities in the Dominions to train British and each other's
    aircrews."


    I unclear where these pilots came from, but I think they may have been
    existing pilots who were retrained. Reading the reports, it appears that
    their lack of experience was a problem. Although Britain had more pilots
    and planes in numbers at the end of the Battle of Britain, I doubt many
    were of the same quality as at the start.

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  • From SolomonW@21:1/5 to The Horny Goat on Wed Nov 20 23:20:31 2019
    XPost: alt.history.what-if

    On Mon, 18 Nov 2019 22:08:59 -0800, The Horny Goat wrote:

    On Mon, 18 Nov 2019 00:31:13 -0600, Rich Rostrom
    <rrostrom@comcast.net> wrote:

    If the Axis controls oil in the Caucasus, and can get
    it to the Black Sea, they ship it to _Romania_, and
    thence overland by rail or up the Danube by barge.

    Where would these tanker ships be constructed? With respect Romania
    isn't exactly known as a shipbuilding nation to put it mildly.


    Well, they did produce at least one, I saw from a net search but not enough though for such a rapid expansion that this plan would entail as overall
    the axis had a shortage of oil barges. I remember being told that even if
    the axis did gain a significant source of oil in North Africa that there
    would be no way of transporting it.

    I found this discussion on this question that I think you and Rich Rostrom
    will find interesting.

    https://forum.axishistory.com/viewtopic.php?p=1101279#p1101279

    "Romania / Hungary / Yugoslavia
    1) A maximum of 1,000,000 metric tons per year could be transferred using pipelines from Romanian Ploesti to the Danube River loading facility at
    Giurgiu and to the Black Sea port of Constanta. Primary pumping stations
    for the Giurgiu pipeline were located in the Astra Romana refinery at
    Ploesti. The pumping station for the Constanta pipeline was located at Teleajan, 5km east of Ploesti.
    2) An average of >1,000,000 metric tons per year could be shipped from the Romanian Giurgiu loading facility on Danube River barges to central or
    northern Europe or to Jugoslavia."

    Romania is producing about 6 million tons a year of oil, so no doubt these facilities were at max AS IS. So we are not just talking tankers but port facilities.

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  • From Phil McGregor@21:1/5 to All on Thu Nov 21 00:10:36 2019
    XPost: alt.history, alt.history.what-if

    On Tue, 19 Nov 2019 17:55:27 -0800, The Horny Goat <lcraver@home.ca>
    wrote:

    On Wed, 20 Nov 2019 10:58:13 +1100, Phil McGregor <aspqrz@tpg.com.au>
    wrote:

    But Britain was already training pilots and, as you can see from the >>figures I provided, the number of Fighter Pilots increased overall
    every month ... by hundreds.

    What's interesting is that this figure doesn't cover the actual number
    of Pilots involved ... the overall figure (Pilots flying at least one >>sortie) is 2937 ... a thousand more than the 1400 November figure and
    the 487 losses.

    Figures are all available online.

    Is that the entire RAF or is it just 11 Fighter Group? (The one
    covering SE England especially London)

    I'm pretty sure it includes the two Groups facing the Luftwaffe as
    they are the figures listed for BoB RAF pilot numbers, 11 Group (7
    Spitfire, 14 Hurricane and 2 Defiant Squadrons) in the SE and 10 Group
    (5 Hurricane and 3 Spitfire Squadrons, plus a Gladiator Squadron) in
    the SW, which was also engaged, though not as heavily.

    The German figures are for BoB Fighter squadrons afaict.

    Phil

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  • From Phil McGregor@21:1/5 to All on Thu Nov 21 00:00:29 2019
    XPost: alt.history, alt.history.what-if

    On Wed, 20 Nov 2019 22:38:22 +1100, SolomonW <SolomonW@citi.com>
    wrote:

    On Wed, 20 Nov 2019 11:02:30 +1100, Phil McGregor wrote:

    On Tue, 19 Nov 2019 17:48:26 +1100, SolomonW <SolomonW@citi.com>
    wrote:

    From what I understand, most of it was in this period run through Canada. >>>The pilots were trained in Australia, then sent to Canada for more training >>>and only then to battle. It was only in late 1940, that the first of these >>>pilots were in action but which stage the battle of Britain was over.

    True, to a point.

    The EATS was supposed to train 50,000 a year ... 28,000 in the
    Dominions and Colonies and the remaining 22,000 in the UK.

    So it was the UK cohort of the EATS who bolstered the pilot numbers
    consistently during the BoB.

    Phil McGregor


    Reading the Wiki, I doubt that it was UK EATS, the first of these EATS was >sent to Britain in Oct 1941.

    https://www.wikiwand.com/en/British_Commonwealth_Air_Training_Plan

    "The United Kingdom was considered an unsuitable location for air training, >due to the possibility of enemy attack, the strain caused by wartime
    traffic at airfields and the unpredictable weather, so the plan called for >the facilities in the Dominions to train British and each other's
    aircrews."

    It doesn't actually say that the UK wasn't used, and it does actually
    say that she was to responsible for 22,000 per year ... maybe that was
    the limit that was believed to be possible.

    Also, note that the Pilots reaching the UK in October were NOT trained
    in the UK.

    I unclear where these pilots came from, but I think they may have been >existing pilots who were retrained. Reading the reports, it appears that >their lack of experience was a problem. Although Britain had more pilots
    and planes in numbers at the end of the Battle of Britain, I doubt many
    were of the same quality as at the start.

    Lack of experience was, indeed, a problem ... but it was lack of
    *combat* experience rather than lack of *flight* experience. They were
    sending newly trained pilots to operational units, but, then, so were
    the Germans ... and German pilot training, throughout the war, never
    even came close to reaching the industrial levels of the EATS.

    Also note that Allied pilots in general were trained to much higher
    standards for the simple reason that they were given many more flying
    hours of instruction even at this early stage as the Germans were
    suffering from training hour restrictions due to their overall lack of
    fuel.

    The high kill numbers of individual German aces is actually a case in
    point ... the Germans couldn't afford to pull them out of frontline
    combat so they were kept there till they died.

    Phil McGregor

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  • From The Horny Goat@21:1/5 to All on Wed Nov 20 06:18:33 2019
    XPost: alt.history, alt.history.what-if

    On Thu, 21 Nov 2019 00:10:36 +1100, Phil McGregor <aspqrz@tpg.com.au>
    wrote:

    I'm pretty sure it includes the two Groups facing the Luftwaffe as
    they are the figures listed for BoB RAF pilot numbers, 11 Group (7
    Spitfire, 14 Hurricane and 2 Defiant Squadrons) in the SE and 10 Group
    (5 Hurricane and 3 Spitfire Squadrons, plus a Gladiator Squadron) in
    the SW, which was also engaged, though not as heavily.

    The German figures are for BoB Fighter squadrons afaict.

    My point of course was that by no means the entire RAF was in
    southeast England during July - December 1940 and the RAF took losses
    elsewhere as well. No question 11th Group's theatre was the most
    important but not the entire story - and Churchill DID send aircraft
    to North Africa and Malta at the very end of the year when the main
    onslaught against London was done.

    (The raid on Taranto was in November 1940 after all....)

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  • From SolomonW@21:1/5 to Phil McGregor on Thu Nov 21 19:55:45 2019
    XPost: alt.history, alt.history.what-if

    On Thu, 21 Nov 2019 00:00:29 +1100, Phil McGregor wrote:

    Lack of experience was, indeed, a problem ... but it was lack of
    *combat* experience rather than lack of *flight* experience. They were sending newly trained pilots to operational units,




    In the book "The most dangerous enemy by Stephen Bungay" on p373, there
    is a short discussion on this question. He does not state the reasons why exactly, but he is firm that these British replacement pilots were not
    nearly as good as the old one.



    Having said that, this problem would have affected the Germans too. Their replacement pilots would need time to learn, which is basically what you
    said.

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  • From Phil McGregor@21:1/5 to All on Fri Nov 22 02:17:24 2019
    XPost: alt.history, alt.history.what-if

    On Thu, 21 Nov 2019 19:55:45 +1100, SolomonW <SolomonW@citi.com>
    wrote:

    On Thu, 21 Nov 2019 00:00:29 +1100, Phil McGregor wrote:

    Lack of experience was, indeed, a problem ... but it was lack of
    *combat* experience rather than lack of *flight* experience. They were
    sending newly trained pilots to operational units,

    In the book "The most dangerous enemy by Stephen Bungay" on p373, there
    is a short discussion on this question. He does not state the reasons why >exactly, but he is firm that these British replacement pilots were not
    nearly as good as the old one.

    Well, yes, they lacked the overall flying hours that the pre-war RAF
    and early Phoney War RAF Pilots had by the BoB ... and it took a while
    for the EATS to ramp up not only the flow through numbers but also the
    level of skill imparted.

    This was one of the advantages of the Allied system in general, they
    DIDN'T keep their pilots flying till they died, hence the far smaller
    kill totals of the Allied Aces compared to the German ones ... the
    Allies pulled back experienced pilots and used them to train the new
    pilots and, as the war progressed, training hours for Allied Pilots
    kept on increasing while those for German ones kept decreasing.

    Average Flying Hours Before Combat

    Commonwealth: 150-200 (Pre-War), ~250 (1942), 335 (1943), 340 (1944)
    US: 140 (Pre-War), 320 (1943), 360 (1944)
    Germany: 150-200 (Pre-War), 240 (1942), 170 (1943), 110 (1944)

    Having said that, this problem would have affected the Germans too. Their >replacement pilots would need time to learn, which is basically what you >said.

    Indeed.

    Phil

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  • From The Horny Goat@21:1/5 to All on Thu Nov 21 07:43:09 2019
    XPost: alt.history, alt.history.what-if

    On Thu, 21 Nov 2019 19:55:45 +1100, SolomonW <SolomonW@citi.com>
    wrote:

    On Thu, 21 Nov 2019 00:00:29 +1100, Phil McGregor wrote:

    Lack of experience was, indeed, a problem ... but it was lack of
    *combat* experience rather than lack of *flight* experience. They were
    sending newly trained pilots to operational units,

    In the book "The most dangerous enemy by Stephen Bungay" on p373, there
    is a short discussion on this question. He does not state the reasons why >exactly, but he is firm that these British replacement pilots were not
    nearly as good as the old one.

    Having said that, this problem would have affected the Germans too. Their >replacement pilots would need time to learn, which is basically what you >said.

    This affects all pilots wth the possible excepton of the Soviets who
    suffered such losses on 22 Jun 1941. It has been extensively talked
    about how much poorer the Japanese fleet air arm was after Midway than
    before..

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  • From Rich Rostrom@21:1/5 to Phil McGregor on Thu Nov 21 16:14:36 2019
    Phil McGregor <aspqrz@tpg.com.au> wrote:

    The high kill numbers of individual German aces is actually a case in
    point ... the Germans couldn't afford to pull them out of frontline
    combat so they were kept there till they died.

    That was part of it; but also, German air tactics were
    a major factor. The Germans tended to designate one
    pilot in each flight or squadron as the best shot, who
    would be given as many opportunities as possible to
    score a kill, while his wingmen flew interference.
    --
    Nous sommes dans une pot de chambre, et nous y serons emmerdés.
    --- General Auguste-Alexandre Ducrot at Sedan, 1870.

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  • From Rich Rostrom@21:1/5 to The Horny Goat on Thu Nov 21 16:34:57 2019
    XPost: alt.history, alt.history.what-if

    The Horny Goat <lcraver@home.ca> wrote:

    Had the British taken and held Narvik ...

    The Allies did take Narvik (I write "Allies"
    because the French _Chasseurs Alpins_ were
    heavily involved).

    However, after the fall of southern Norway
    to the Germans, and with the collapse of
    France, Narvik was deemed untenable.

    I wonder though - given the terrain, could a
    determined garrison hold out? The Allies would
    also keep northern Norway, which has effects on
    Finland; it would also secure the convoy route
    to Murmansk. And here's a big question: would
    the Axis be able to hold the Petsamo nickel
    mines, and how important was Petsamo nickel?



    ...I have no doubt the Brits would have invaded
    Northern Sweden sometime between 1941-43 to take
    the iron fields...

    Very unlikely. By that time, Germany had the Briey
    fields in France, Britain would not want to
    force Sweden into the Axis, and German forces
    operating through and with Sweden would easily
    recapture the Kiruna mines _and_ take Narvik.
    --
    Nous sommes dans une pot de chambre, et nous y serons emmerdés.
    --- General Auguste-Alexandre Ducrot at Sedan, 1870.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Rich Rostrom@21:1/5 to SolomonW on Thu Nov 21 16:20:42 2019
    XPost: alt.history.what-if

    SolomonW <SolomonW@citi.com> wrote:

    This is a railway map of Russia 1942.

    It shows one, not "many" rail line bypassing Stalingrad well to the East.
    --
    Nous sommes dans une pot de chambre, et nous y serons emmerdés.
    --- General Auguste-Alexandre Ducrot at Sedan, 1870.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From John Dallman@21:1/5 to Rich Rostrom on Thu Nov 21 23:40:00 2019
    In article <rrostrom-EC6DB8.16345721112019@reader01.eternal-september.org>
    , rrostrom@comcast.net (Rich Rostrom) wrote:

    I wonder though - given the terrain, could a
    determined garrison hold out?

    Not in the long term. They would need supplies from the UK, and that
    would give the Luftwaffe and Kriegsmarine targets they would be keen to cooperate over. Ships would be lost regularly, and Narvik would
    eventually fall. And at the time, there were no convoys to Murmansk to
    secure; the USSR was allied with Germany, having shared Poland.

    Churchill had ideas for seizing northern Norway at various subsequent
    points in the war, but they never went anywhere, for the same reason.

    John

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From The Horny Goat@21:1/5 to rrostrom@comcast.net on Thu Nov 21 23:33:04 2019
    XPost: alt.history, alt.history.what-if

    On Thu, 21 Nov 2019 16:34:57 -0600, Rich Rostrom
    <rrostrom@comcast.net> wrote:

    The Horny Goat <lcraver@home.ca> wrote:

    Had the British taken and held Narvik ...

    The Allies did take Narvik (I write "Allies"
    because the French _Chasseurs Alpins_ were
    heavily involved).

    However, after the fall of southern Norway
    to the Germans, and with the collapse of
    France, Narvik was deemed untenable.

    Thus my comment - the important part was AND HELD which they didn't.

    Given when they took it the Germans had already broken the Somme and
    the battles that led to Dunkirk were underway so it was not at all
    clear how long the French would remain and whether Narvik could be
    held by the British (admittedly with 'their Poles') without them.

    I wonder though - given the terrain, could a
    determined garrison hold out? The Allies would
    also keep northern Norway, which has effects on
    Finland; it would also secure the convoy route
    to Murmansk. And here's a big question: would
    the Axis be able to hold the Petsamo nickel
    mines, and how important was Petsamo nickel?

    I would be amazed if these questions were not asked by the British
    government but the question seems to be British doubt that Narvik
    could be held particularly as the Germans were thought to have local
    air superiority. Petsamo is a LONG way from Narvik and has a rail
    line to the rest of Finland so I'm skeptical Britain ever had a
    reasonable chance of actually taking it.

    ...I have no doubt the Brits would have invaded
    Northern Sweden sometime between 1941-43 to take
    the iron fields...

    Very unlikely. By that time, Germany had the Briey
    fields in France, Britain would not want to
    force Sweden into the Axis, and German forces
    operating through and with Sweden would easily
    recapture the Kiruna mines _and_ take Narvik.

    The Swedish army at that time was 20-25 divisions nearly entirely
    infantry with most of northern Sweden completely unsuitable for armor
    for much of the year. On second thought given British strength in
    1942-43 (e.g. before US forces were a big factor) it's difficult to
    imagine that kind of force particularly as I cannot imagine FDR
    preferring a Norweigian raid into Sweden in preference to Torch.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From SolomonW@21:1/5 to The Horny Goat on Sat Nov 23 21:01:56 2019
    XPost: alt.history, alt.history.what-if

    On Thu, 21 Nov 2019 07:43:09 -0800, The Horny Goat wrote:

    On Thu, 21 Nov 2019 19:55:45 +1100, SolomonW <SolomonW@citi.com>
    wrote:

    On Thu, 21 Nov 2019 00:00:29 +1100, Phil McGregor wrote:

    Lack of experience was, indeed, a problem ... but it was lack of
    *combat* experience rather than lack of *flight* experience. They were
    sending newly trained pilots to operational units,

    In the book "The most dangerous enemy by Stephen Bungay" on p373, there
    is a short discussion on this question. He does not state the reasons why >>exactly, but he is firm that these British replacement pilots were not >>nearly as good as the old one.

    Having said that, this problem would have affected the Germans too. Their >>replacement pilots would need time to learn, which is basically what you >>said.

    This affects all pilots wth the possible excepton of the Soviets who
    suffered such losses on 22 Jun 1941.

    In 1941, they were throwing in pilots that had almost no training and from
    what I read it was only towards the end of ww2 that Russian pilot training
    in hours started equaling Western training times.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From SolomonW@21:1/5 to Rich Rostrom on Sat Nov 23 21:12:56 2019
    XPost: alt.history.what-if

    On Thu, 21 Nov 2019 16:20:42 -0600, Rich Rostrom wrote:

    SolomonW <SolomonW@citi.com> wrote:

    This is a railway map of Russia 1942.

    It shows one, not "many" rail line bypassing Stalingrad well to the East.

    And it shows one not far from Stalingrad, and I think there is a third one following the Caspian Sea.

    There were also barges on the Caspian Sea which were used. https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Caspian_Flotilla

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From The Horny Goat@21:1/5 to All on Sat Nov 23 12:37:36 2019
    XPost: alt.history, alt.history.what-if

    On Sat, 23 Nov 2019 21:01:56 +1100, SolomonW <SolomonW@citi.com>
    wrote:

    Lack of experience was, indeed, a problem ... but it was lack of
    *combat* experience rather than lack of *flight* experience. They were >>>> sending newly trained pilots to operational units,

    In the book "The most dangerous enemy by Stephen Bungay" on p373, there >>>is a short discussion on this question. He does not state the reasons why >>>exactly, but he is firm that these British replacement pilots were not >>>nearly as good as the old one.

    Having said that, this problem would have affected the Germans too. Their >>>replacement pilots would need time to learn, which is basically what you >>>said.

    This affects all pilots wth the possible excepton of the Soviets who
    suffered such losses on 22 Jun 1941.

    In 1941, they were throwing in pilots that had almost no training and from >what I read it was only towards the end of ww2 that Russian pilot training
    in hours started equaling Western training times.

    I apologize for leaving the impression that I thought Red Air Force
    pilots were as good as Allied and German pilots - perhaps by 1945 but
    a LOT of not so superb pilots were dead.

    My reference to 22 June 1941 (which I presume most here know was the
    day the Germans invaded Russia) was simply that the Red Air Force lost
    roughly 1000 planes that day many on the ground. This had the result
    that during the 1941 they mostly flew whatever they had available and
    many of these were NOT up to 1940-41 standards - some of these dated
    back to the 1920s.

    The first Soviet "airborne" operations were in fact during the 1941-42 counteroffensive where troops were dropped behind German lines to join
    up with the partisans. The story is that a common method of
    "paratrooping" was for the plane to fly as low to the ground as
    possible and for the men to jump into as deep a snowbank as they could
    spot from the air - WITHOUT PARACHUTES. I've read stories that have to
    be apocryphal as to how many jumped that way but there are too many
    stories of that sort for this not to have been used in a few cases.
    There is no suggestion this was ever attempted other than in the
    deepest of winter.

    To me it seems too "Bartholomew Bandy-ish" to have ever been a
    widespread practice. (Apologies to those unfamiliar with Donald Jack's
    hero)

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From SolomonW@21:1/5 to The Horny Goat on Sun Nov 24 13:46:08 2019
    XPost: alt.history, alt.history.what-if

    On Sat, 23 Nov 2019 12:37:36 -0800, The Horny Goat wrote:

    On Sat, 23 Nov 2019 21:01:56 +1100, SolomonW <SolomonW@citi.com>
    wrote:

    Lack of experience was, indeed, a problem ... but it was lack of
    *combat* experience rather than lack of *flight* experience. They were >>>>> sending newly trained pilots to operational units,

    In the book "The most dangerous enemy by Stephen Bungay" on p373, there >>>>is a short discussion on this question. He does not state the reasons why >>>>exactly, but he is firm that these British replacement pilots were not >>>>nearly as good as the old one.

    Having said that, this problem would have affected the Germans too. Their >>>>replacement pilots would need time to learn, which is basically what you >>>>said.

    This affects all pilots wth the possible excepton of the Soviets who
    suffered such losses on 22 Jun 1941.

    In 1941, they were throwing in pilots that had almost no training and from >>what I read it was only towards the end of ww2 that Russian pilot training >>in hours started equaling Western training times.

    I apologize for leaving the impression that I thought Red Air Force
    pilots were as good as Allied and German pilots - perhaps by 1945 but
    a LOT of not so superb pilots were dead.


    How good they were is disputed, there was an air battle during ww2 where
    the Russians and the US fought and technically the Russians won.







    https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Air_battle_over_Ni%C5%A1




    Later in the war, a Russian ace was attacked by several US planes, and
    he shot them down.



    My reference to 22 June 1941 (which I presume most here know was the
    day the Germans invaded Russia) was simply that the Red Air Force lost roughly 1000 planes that day many on the ground. This had the result
    that during the 1941 they mostly flew whatever they had available and
    many of these were NOT up to 1940-41 standards - some of these dated
    back to the 1920s.

    The first Soviet "airborne" operations were in fact during the 1941-42 counteroffensive where troops were dropped behind German lines to join
    up with the partisans. The story is that a common method of
    "paratrooping" was for the plane to fly as low to the ground as
    possible and for the men to jump into as deep a snowbank as they could
    spot from the air - WITHOUT PARACHUTES. I've read stories that have to
    be apocryphal as to how many jumped that way but there are too many
    stories of that sort for this not to have been used in a few cases.
    There is no suggestion this was ever attempted other than in the
    deepest of winter.

    To me it seems too "Bartholomew Bandy-ish" to have ever been a
    widespread practice. (Apologies to those unfamiliar with Donald Jack's
    hero)


    The Russians did experiment with dropping paratroopers without parachutes.

    https://books.google.com.au/books?id=GeALYXiy9sMC&pg=PA295&lpg=PA295&dq=Russian+WW2+soldiers+dropped+from+planes+without+parachutes+into+snow?&source=bl&ots=iVOEDVJWgj&sig=-uK3CUH9MsTnAPVg6qT3_OBUN_E&hl=en&sa=X&ved=
    0ahUKEwjl3PbQzo7OAhUMHB4KHVMnDLUQ6AEIQzAG#v=onepage&q=Russian%20WW2%20soldiers%20dropped%20from%20planes%20without%20parachutes%20into%20snow%3F&f=false

    Loss rates were about 50%, and experiments were soon abandoned.

    I found this discussion on the web about it.

    https://www.reddit.com/r/AskHistorians/comments/4ugqvh/is_it_true_russian_ww2_soldiers_were_dropped_from/

    going over it, I feel that it may have happened ad-hoc, but that is about
    it.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From The Horny Goat@21:1/5 to All on Sat Nov 23 23:03:45 2019
    XPost: alt.history, alt.history.what-if

    On Sun, 24 Nov 2019 13:46:08 +1100, SolomonW <SolomonW@citi.com>
    wrote:

    I apologize for leaving the impression that I thought Red Air Force
    pilots were as good as Allied and German pilots - perhaps by 1945 but
    a LOT of not so superb pilots were dead.

    How good they were is disputed, there was an air battle during ww2 where
    the Russians and the US fought and technically the Russians won.

    When was this battle? If it happened at all it had to be somewhere
    near the Elbe in 1945 and as I said the Red Air Force was pretty
    competent by then.

    Totally different situation from 1941 - no one suggests the Red Air
    Force in the first 6 months of the invasioni were at the standard of
    the RAF or Luftwaffe over Britain in 1940. Some individual pilots were
    but not overall by a long shot.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Chrysi Cat@21:1/5 to The Horny Goat on Sun Nov 24 10:11:33 2019
    XPost: alt.history, alt.history.what-if

    On 11/24/2019 12:03 AM, The Horny Goat wrote:
    On Sun, 24 Nov 2019 13:46:08 +1100, SolomonW <SolomonW@citi.com>
    wrote:

    I apologize for leaving the impression that I thought Red Air Force
    pilots were as good as Allied and German pilots - perhaps by 1945 but
    a LOT of not so superb pilots were dead.

    How good they were is disputed, there was an air battle during ww2 where
    the Russians and the US fought and technically the Russians won.

    When was this battle? If it happened at all it had to be somewhere
    near the Elbe in 1945 and as I said the Red Air Force was pretty
    competent by then.

    Totally different situation from 1941 - no one suggests the Red Air
    Force in the first 6 months of the invasioni were at the standard of
    the RAF or Luftwaffe over Britain in 1940. Some individual pilots were
    but not overall by a long shot.


    Read the article (though preferably replacing the for-profit Wikiwand
    address with the corresponding Wikipedia one). It's in Serbia almost
    exactly 75 years ago.

    It's also P-38s, which weren't really suitable dogfighters, against
    YAK-9s. Euro Theatre P-38s were not given to the best American pilots at
    that point-there are P-51s all over the European skies instead.

    --
    Chrysi Cat
    1/2 anthrocat, nearly 1/2 anthrofox, all magical
    Transgoddess, quick to anger.
    Call me Chrysi or call me Kat, I'll respond to either!

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Rich Rostrom@21:1/5 to The Horny Goat on Mon Nov 25 01:08:37 2019
    XPost: alt.history, alt.history.what-if

    The Horny Goat <lcraver@home.ca> wrote:

    Petsamo is a LONG way from Narvik...

    But is adjacent to northern Norway, and very
    distant from the rest of Finland - and also
    adjacent to the USSR.
    --
    Nous sommes dans une pot de chambre, et nous y serons emmerdés.
    --- General Auguste-Alexandre Ducrot at Sedan, 1870.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From SolomonW@21:1/5 to Chrysi Cat on Mon Nov 25 20:03:41 2019
    XPost: alt.history, alt.history.what-if

    On Sun, 24 Nov 2019 10:11:33 -0700, Chrysi Cat wrote:

    On 11/24/2019 12:03 AM, The Horny Goat wrote:
    On Sun, 24 Nov 2019 13:46:08 +1100, SolomonW <SolomonW@citi.com>
    wrote:

    I apologize for leaving the impression that I thought Red Air Force
    pilots were as good as Allied and German pilots - perhaps by 1945 but
    a LOT of not so superb pilots were dead.

    How good they were is disputed, there was an air battle during ww2 where >>> the Russians and the US fought and technically the Russians won.

    When was this battle? If it happened at all it had to be somewhere
    near the Elbe in 1945 and as I said the Red Air Force was pretty
    competent by then.

    Totally different situation from 1941 - no one suggests the Red Air
    Force in the first 6 months of the invasioni were at the standard of
    the RAF or Luftwaffe over Britain in 1940. Some individual pilots were
    but not overall by a long shot.


    Read the article (though preferably replacing the for-profit Wikiwand
    address with the corresponding Wikipedia one).


    I prefer it.

    It's in Serbia almost
    exactly 75 years ago.

    It's also P-38s, which weren't really suitable dogfighters, against
    YAK-9s. Euro Theatre P-38s were not given to the best American pilots at
    that point-there are P-51s all over the European skies instead.

    There were 22 different versions of the YAK-9, all with very different
    fighting charateristics. I am not sure which one it was.

    Having said that, I doubt there was much different between the P-38 and
    P-51. The big issue is that the P-51 was much cheaper.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From The Horny Goat@21:1/5 to rrostrom@comcast.net on Mon Nov 25 17:54:02 2019
    XPost: alt.history, alt.history.what-if

    On Mon, 25 Nov 2019 01:08:37 -0600, Rich Rostrom
    <rrostrom@comcast.net> wrote:

    The Horny Goat <lcraver@home.ca> wrote:

    Petsamo is a LONG way from Narvik...

    But is adjacent to northern Norway, and very
    distant from the rest of Finland - and also
    adjacent to the USSR.

    It's not all that close to the portion of Finland that the Soviets
    annexed after the war - which includes Petsamo.

    Google says 900+ km by road and 635 km from Narvik to Murmansk by air.

    As opposed to roughly 1000km by air from Narvik to Oslo

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From The Horny Goat@21:1/5 to All on Mon Nov 25 17:48:49 2019
    XPost: alt.history, alt.history.what-if

    On Sun, 24 Nov 2019 10:11:33 -0700, Chrysi Cat <chrysicat@gmail.com>
    wrote:

    Totally different situation from 1941 - no one suggests the Red Air
    Force in the first 6 months of the invasioni were at the standard of
    the RAF or Luftwaffe over Britain in 1940. Some individual pilots were
    but not overall by a long shot.


    Read the article (though preferably replacing the for-profit Wikiwand
    address with the corresponding Wikipedia one). It's in Serbia almost
    exactly 75 years ago.

    It's also P-38s, which weren't really suitable dogfighters, against
    YAK-9s. Euro Theatre P-38s were not given to the best American pilots at
    that point-there are P-51s all over the European skies instead.

    I saw the link AFTER I wrote my last posting and yes it was over Nis
    in the former Yugoslavia in Nov 1944. I agree with you that the main
    air front would have been over Germany itself at that time. And no
    question the P-38 was a fine airplane in 1942-43 it had been
    completely eclipsed by the P-51 by late 1944.

    (I have an employee who was born in FYROM and came to Canada at age
    10-11 - she's in her late 20s now - and is amazed at how well I know Yugoslavian towns by name. I tell her I am a chess player and a LOT of
    those towns hosted major chess tournaments in the Tito era. I have
    asked her several times for the correct pronunciation as the mostly Serbo-Croatian pronunciations don't readily flow off the lips of most
    North Americans.)

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Rich Rostrom@21:1/5 to The Horny Goat on Tue Nov 26 12:53:14 2019
    The Horny Goat <lcraver@home.ca> wrote:

    On Mon, 25 Nov 2019 01:08:37 -0600, Rich Rostrom
    <rrostrom@comcast.net> wrote:

    The Horny Goat <lcraver@home.ca> wrote:

    Petsamo is a LONG way from Narvik...

    But is adjacent to northern Norway, and very
    distant from the rest of Finland - and also
    adjacent to the USSR.

    It's not all that close to the portion of Finland that the Soviets
    annexed after the war - which includes Petsamo.

    I'm not sure why you think I was referring to
    Narvik rather than Petsamo.
    --
    Nous sommes dans une pot de chambre, et nous y serons emmerdés.
    --- General Auguste-Alexandre Ducrot at Sedan, 1870.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Rich Rostrom@21:1/5 to The Horny Goat on Tue Nov 26 12:55:33 2019
    The Horny Goat <lcraver@home.ca> wrote:

    the men to jump into as deep a snowbank as they could
    spot from the air - WITHOUT PARACHUTES.

    Well, that sounds crazy - but not that much
    crazier than floating down slowly through the
    air while men on the ground shoot at you.
    --
    Nous sommes dans une pot de chambre, et nous y serons emmerdés.
    --- General Auguste-Alexandre Ducrot at Sedan, 1870.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From John Dallman@21:1/5 to SolomonW on Tue Nov 26 19:33:00 2019
    In article <8fxqdrbr6erf.10sbblykabjjs.dlg@40tude.net>, SolomonW@citi.com (SolomonW) wrote:

    Having said that, I doubt there was much different between the P-38
    and P-51. The big issue is that the P-51 was much cheaper.

    The 8th Air Force would have disagreed with you. At high altitude, in
    very cold air, the speed of sound isn't that far above the speed of late
    WWII fighters. This means that if they go fast enough, they start
    experiencing supersonic flow over /parts/ of their airframe, which tends
    to make them very hard to control. This was called "compressability
    problems" at the time.

    This meant that any given airframe had a limit on the Mach number that
    allowed decent control in combat. From memory, the figures for the
    fighters in use in the European Theatre were about:

    P-38 0.68
    P-47 0.75
    Bf 109 0.78
    Spitfire 0.78
    P-51 0.81

    When 8th Air Force got these figures, they decided they didn't want any
    more P-38s. It was a good aircraft for some jobs, but kind of lacking as
    a dogfighter.

    John

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From The Horny Goat@21:1/5 to rrostrom@comcast.net on Tue Nov 26 17:40:58 2019
    On Tue, 26 Nov 2019 12:55:33 -0600, Rich Rostrom
    <rrostrom@comcast.net> wrote:

    The Horny Goat <lcraver@home.ca> wrote:

    the men to jump into as deep a snowbank as they could
    spot from the air - WITHOUT PARACHUTES.

    Well, that sounds crazy - but not that much
    crazier than floating down slowly through the
    air while men on the ground shoot at you.

    You DO understand that this is something they attempted in mid-winter
    in areas where snowdrifts were known to be deep? Obviously this is not
    the kind of thing you would attempt in mid-summer! During the winter
    of 1941-42 the Red Air Force made lots of air drops of supplies and
    equipment to partisan units but this discussion was about actual reinforcements1

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From The Horny Goat@21:1/5 to rrostrom@comcast.net on Tue Nov 26 17:38:56 2019
    On Tue, 26 Nov 2019 12:53:14 -0600, Rich Rostrom
    <rrostrom@comcast.net> wrote:

    Petsamo is a LONG way from Narvik...

    But is adjacent to northern Norway, and very
    distant from the rest of Finland - and also
    adjacent to the USSR.

    It's not all that close to the portion of Finland that the Soviets
    annexed after the war - which includes Petsamo.

    I'm not sure why you think I was referring to
    Narvik rather than Petsamo.

    Because this thread started with my fantasy of Britain and France
    holding Narvik long-term and using it for a base for an attack on
    Northern Finland - which at that time went all the way to Petsamo.

    I was convinced by the previous poster that any Anglo-French attack on
    anything Swedish would bring in the full Swedish army (which at that
    time was roughly 20-25 divisions which is certainly more than a
    British expeditionary force could cope with with or without French
    aid. And given this was without a week or two of Dunkirk the French
    were quite eager to cut and run which would give the Luftwaffe air
    superiority over northern Norway and rendering any British dreams of
    further operations in Scandanavia moot.

    To put it mildly.

    Trivia question: which well known British division was the first to
    land in Norway at the end of the war? (answer - ROT-13'd)

    Svefg Nveobear - gur Abejrtvna tbireazrag va rkvyr nfxrq Puhepuvyy
    nfxrq sbe n oevtnqr fvmrq havg (juvpu vf jung 1fg Nveobear onfvpnyyl
    jnf nsgre Neaurz) naq Puhepuvyy nfxrq uvf trarenyf jub jnf ninvynoyr
    naq sryg gurl'q or n tbbq pubvpr gb erprvir gur Trezna fheeraqre naq
    fhcreivfr gur svefg Abejrtvna cbfg-jne ryrpgvba ng juvpu gvzr gurl
    jrer frag ubzr naq zbfg bs gurz vzzrqvngryl qrzbovyvmrq. Lbh
    haqrefgnaq bs pbhefr gung gur Oevgvfu tbireazrag sryg gurl'q zber guna
    qbar gurve qhgl va Frcgrzore 1944 va gur Argureynaqf......

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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  • From Rich Rostrom@21:1/5 to The Horny Goat on Wed Nov 27 00:30:20 2019
    The Horny Goat <lcraver@home.ca> wrote:

    You DO understand that this is something they attempted in mid-winter
    in areas where snowdrifts were known to be deep?

    Of course. That's why I wrote that it was not "that much crazier"
    than conventional parachuting into combat. There was actually a
    method to the madness. In the end it didn't work, but it was
    arguably worth trying.
    --
    Nous sommes dans une pot de chambre, et nous y serons emmerdés.
    --- General Auguste-Alexandre Ducrot at Sedan, 1870.

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  • From The Horny Goat@21:1/5 to rrostrom@comcast.net on Wed Nov 27 08:49:05 2019
    On Wed, 27 Nov 2019 00:30:20 -0600, Rich Rostrom
    <rrostrom@comcast.net> wrote:

    You DO understand that this is something they attempted in mid-winter
    in areas where snowdrifts were known to be deep?

    Of course. That's why I wrote that it was not "that much crazier"
    than conventional parachuting into combat. There was actually a
    method to the madness. In the end it didn't work, but it was
    arguably worth trying.

    Of course launching unpowered gliders into contested areas loaded with
    troops and equipment isn't all that much crazier and that was done in
    nearly every Allied airdrop of the war (Normandy, Arnhem, the Rhine
    crossing just for starters)

    There are stories of how gliders killed every man on board when they
    tried to land a jeep or anti-tank gun by glider and the moorings in
    the glider gave way - even when they WEREN'T under German fire.

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