• ? Fuel that fires; the Treaty of Versailles revisited

    From Byker@21:1/5 to SolomonW on Wed Aug 14 13:44:48 2019
    XPost: alt.history.what-if

    "Dean Markley" wrote in message news:10c0f968-2dd2-477a-8d66-b30d59ed7cb7@googlegroups.com...

    On Wednesday, August 14, 2019 at 4:42:13 AM UTC-4, SolomonW wrote:

    This view is no longer widely held of an accidental start of ww1

    Checkout a book
    https://www.amazon.com/Europes-Last-Summer-Started-Great/dp/037572575X

    "When war broke out in Europe in 1914, it surprised a European population enjoying the most beautiful summer in memory." Lots of folks remember the summer of 1939 the same way, that is, until Sept. 1st.

    Agreed. WWI did not start accidentally. The Germans knew very well what they were doing in encouraging Austria-Hungary.

    The Germans, like Britain and France, wanted an empire too.

    The Greeks 2,400 years ago knew what happens when a rising power rivals a ruling power: "It was the rise of Athens, and the fear that this instilled
    in Sparta, that made war inevitable." -- Thucydides

    When a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power, it rarely ends
    well.

    https://www.amazon.com/Destined-War-America-Escape-Thucydidess-ebook/dp/B01IAS9FZY

    An up-and-coming Germany vs. imperial Britain = WWI

    Japanese imperial expansion vs. United States = WWII

    "In 12 of 16 past cases in which a rising power has confronted a ruling
    power, the result has been bloodshed." https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/thucydides-trap-are-us-and-china-headed-war

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ku8KqQccoUU

    https://foreignpolicy.com/2017/06/09/the-thucydides-trap/


    I wonder if we'll ever get the straight story regarding the Schlieffen Plan. "Most of the pre-1914 planning of the German General Staff was secret and
    the documents were destroyed when the deployment plans were superseded every April. The bombing of Potsdam in April 1945 destroyed the Prussian army
    archive and only incomplete records and other documents survived. Some
    records became available after the fall of the German Democratic Republic (GDR), making an outline of German war planning possible for the first time, proving wrong much post-1918 writing." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schlieffen_Plan

    Reportedly the German military brass years before, upon seeing Buffalo
    Bill's Wild West Show, paid particular attention as to how the troupe was
    able to load all those men and animals on a train and move them to their
    next venue in short order...

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From SolomonW@21:1/5 to Byker on Thu Aug 15 21:25:41 2019
    XPost: alt.history.what-if

    On Wed, 14 Aug 2019 13:44:48 -0500, Byker wrote:

    I wonder if we'll ever get the straight story regarding the Schlieffen Plan. "Most of the pre-1914 planning of the German General Staff was secret and
    the documents were destroyed when the deployment plans were superseded every April.

    Several such as Terence Zuber "The real german war plan 1904-14" claim that
    the Schlieffen Plan was better describe as a rough concept rather than a
    plan.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From The Horny Goat@21:1/5 to Byker on Thu Aug 15 07:07:30 2019
    On Wed, 14 Aug 2019 13:44:48 -0500, "Byker" <byker@do~rag.net> wrote:

    Reportedly the German military brass years before, upon seeing Buffalo
    Bill's Wild West Show, paid particular attention as to how the troupe was >able to load all those men and animals on a train and move them to their
    next venue in short order.

    Don't know about that but do know what brought Eisenhower to attention
    as a candidate for the highest commands was an exercise in the 1920s
    where he moved a regiment from Chicago to New Orleans in what had been
    thought to be an unimaginable time using both trucks and trains

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From pyotr filipivich@21:1/5 to All on Thu Aug 15 08:30:01 2019
    The Horny Goat <lcraver@home.ca> on Thu, 15 Aug 2019 07:07:30 -0700
    typed in soc.history.what-if the following:
    On Wed, 14 Aug 2019 13:44:48 -0500, "Byker" <byker@do~rag.net> wrote:

    Reportedly the German military brass years before, upon seeing Buffalo >>Bill's Wild West Show, paid particular attention as to how the troupe was >>able to load all those men and animals on a train and move them to their >>next venue in short order.

    Don't know about that but do know what brought Eisenhower to attention
    as a candidate for the highest commands was an exercise in the 1920s
    where he moved a regiment from Chicago to New Orleans in what had been >thought to be an unimaginable time using both trucks and trains

    The story I recall was that the German General Staff sent
    "observers" to the US to study how the Ringling Brothers (et al) moved
    their Circus by train. Essentially, a small town is packed up,
    loaded, moved,unloaded, and unpacked, in less than a day at each end.


    --
    pyotr filipivich.
    For Sale: Uncirculated Roman Drachmas, feature Julius Ceaser's Portrait, several dated 44 BCE. Comes with Certificate of Authenticity.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Byker@21:1/5 to Byker on Thu Aug 15 11:12:02 2019
    XPost: alt.history.what-if

    "The Horny Goat" wrote in message news:smpalet5sfnukovdhnujv4vkacnlb3ha76@4ax.com...

    On Wed, 14 Aug 2019 13:44:48 -0500, "Byker" <byker@do~rag.net> wrote:

    Reportedly the German military brass years before, upon seeing Buffalo >>Bill's Wild West Show, paid particular attention as to how the troupe was >>able to load all those men and animals on a train and move them to their >>next venue in short order.

    Don't know about that but do know what brought Eisenhower to attention as
    a candidate for the highest commands was an exercise in the 1920s where he moved a regiment from Chicago to New Orleans in what had been thought to
    be an unimaginable time using both trucks and trains

    For the Schlieffen plan to work, German strategists in 1907 decided that it would take 1,800 trains to move all the men and matériel towards Paris. They had every detail figured out, only to run afoul of Murphy's Law at every turn...

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Byker@21:1/5 to The Horny Goat on Fri Aug 16 13:46:28 2019
    XPost: alt.history.what-if, uk.politics.misc

    "The Horny Goat" wrote in message news:vadbledamk7odi56t4ig5772j89e56t4l0@4ax.com...

    Had any of the great powers known in 1914 what they were facing by 1918-19
    I doubt any of them would have gone to war.

    I wonder: Had Queen Victoria lived as long as the Queen Mum, she could have
    put her foot down and snapped, "Stop it! Stop this nonsense right now, you naughty boys!"
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Queen_Elizabeth_The_Queen_Mother

    For instance in 5 years Britain went from world's greatest creditor to world's greatest debtor and the Empire was never quite the same.

    But for WWI and consequently WWII, Britain and France could have held on to their colonies for at least another century...

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Byker@21:1/5 to SolomonW on Fri Aug 16 15:17:54 2019
    XPost: alt.history.what-if

    "SolomonW" wrote in message
    news:1lsbvzbg9nfw3.6fzrc68lh0ed.dlg@40tude.net...

    But let us assume that Russia goes to war if Germany wins, then France
    will be left facing Germany alone.

    At which time the Frogs will sue for peace, cede a couple
    more provinces, like in 1871, and call it a draw...

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Byker@21:1/5 to The Horny Goat on Fri Aug 16 15:22:27 2019
    XPost: alt.history.what-if, uk.politics.misc

    "The Horny Goat" wrote in message news:tvhdle1rdrgukq64go00jji0ung3k3tsi1@4ax.com...

    As it happened, British entry into the war wasn't long term at all.

    I wonder what Lord Kitchener 's private thoughts were
    once the war turned into a morass: https://tinyurl.com/y3xfx5fj

    https://www.iwmshop.org.uk/images/product/prod_12784.jpg

    Undoubtedly he said "God save the King" as he
    went down with the ship: https://tinyurl.com/y5kl7ypa

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Rich Rostrom@21:1/5 to Byker on Fri Aug 16 17:46:50 2019
    XPost: alt.history.what-if, uk.politics.misc

    "Byker" <byker@do~rag.net> wrote:

    But for WWI and consequently WWII, Britain and
    France could have held on to their colonies for at
    least another century...

    Wrong. Colonial rule was a giant exception to the principle
    of democracy. It was acceptable only because of the great
    difference in culture between the European nations and the
    colonized peoples.

    In the 20th century, this difference greatly diminished,
    and the colonized peoples began to ask why the colonizers
    ruled them. To this, the colonizers had no answer except
    "might makes right" - and that was no longer acceptable
    in an era of democracy.

    This feeling was already widespread before WW I. Kipling
    mocked it in several of his stories and poems.

    I would add that the US was fundamentally opposed to
    colonialism, and regardless of the world wars, the US
    was going to be the dominant power in the world.

    I suppose it's _possible_ that absent the world wars,
    British colonies generally would have become self-
    governing Dominions within the "Empire", not just the
    "white Dominions", and the title "Empire" would be
    retained instead of "Commonwealth". But I can't see
    more than that.

    And with French colonies, anything like that is not
    workable. Though there was consideration of expanding
    "France" to include colonies and make _citoyens_ of
    the natives. Algeria was legally a part of metropolitan
    France, though the natives were not fully franchised;
    in Jules Verne's novel _The Barsac Expedition_, two
    members of the Chamber of Deputies traverse West Africa
    to determine whether the natives are fit for that; and
    today, several of France's island colonies are ruled
    from France and vote in French elections.
    --
    Nous sommes dans une pot de chambre, et nous y serons emmerdés.
    --- General Auguste-Alexandre Ducrot at Sedan, 1870.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Byker@21:1/5 to SolomonW on Fri Aug 16 18:32:20 2019
    XPost: alt.history.what-if

    "Rich Rostrom" wrote in message news:rrostrom-A54160.17574916082019@reader01.eternal-september.org...

    SolomonW <SolomonW@citi.com> wrote:

    I doubt it was the Kaiser himself but the high officials in the German
    government who were looking for a chance.

    The Kaiser was not personally involved in the backdoor work of inciting Austria to war, but he had for years been rattling sabers. He told King Albert of Belgium that war with France was inevitable, and hinted strongly that the irresistible German army would march across Belgium, which should submit quietly. He was equally bellicose in Austria, regarding Russia.

    In the face of such boasts, both Britain and France had for years been preparing militarily for such an eventuality, and German military leaders
    were chomping at the bit to get things going before being outspent and "overtaken."

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From SolomonW@21:1/5 to Byker on Sat Aug 17 18:44:37 2019
    XPost: alt.history.what-if

    On Fri, 16 Aug 2019 15:17:54 -0500, Byker wrote:

    "SolomonW" wrote in message news:1lsbvzbg9nfw3.6fzrc68lh0ed.dlg@40tude.net...

    But let us assume that Russia goes to war if Germany wins, then France
    will be left facing Germany alone.

    At which time the Frogs will sue for peace, cede a couple
    more provinces, like in 1871, and call it a draw...

    More likely go down fighting once Germany pushed them too much.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From SolomonW@21:1/5 to Byker on Sat Aug 17 18:48:09 2019
    XPost: alt.history.what-if

    On Fri, 16 Aug 2019 18:32:20 -0500, Byker wrote:

    "Rich Rostrom" wrote in message news:rrostrom-A54160.17574916082019@reader01.eternal-september.org...

    SolomonW <SolomonW@citi.com> wrote:

    I doubt it was the Kaiser himself but the high officials in the German
    government who were looking for a chance.

    The Kaiser was not personally involved in the backdoor work of inciting
    Austria to war, but he had for years been rattling sabers. He told King
    Albert of Belgium that war with France was inevitable, and hinted strongly >> that the irresistible German army would march across Belgium, which should >> submit quietly. He was equally bellicose in Austria, regarding Russia.

    In the face of such boasts, both Britain and France had for years been preparing militarily for such an eventuality, and German military leaders were chomping at the bit to get things going before being outspent and "overtaken."


    It was Russia that really worried them. It had the biggest army and was
    fast modernising. To the German militarist, this was getting close to the
    last chance to beat Russia. They were right about this.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Yeechang Lee@21:1/5 to SolomonW on Fri Aug 23 00:52:55 2019
    SolomonW wrote:
    Several such as Terence Zuber "The real german war plan 1904-14"
    claim that the Schlieffen Plan was better describe as a rough
    concept rather than a plan.

    Another is *Europe's Last Summer: Who Started the Great War in 1914?*
    by David Fromkin.

    --
    geo:37.783333,-122.416667

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Yeechang Lee@21:1/5 to SolomonW on Fri Aug 23 01:06:33 2019
    SolomonW wrote:
    It was Russia that really worried them. It had the biggest army and
    was fast modernising. To the German militarist, this was getting
    close to the last chance to beat Russia. They were right about this.

    Fromkin's *Europe's Last Summer* says that although Germany wanted to
    war against Russia before the window for victory closed, Russia was so
    backward that any improvement seemed to be larger than it actually
    was. (Made me think of modern China.) The "partial mobilization" that
    the Czar ordered during the month before war was declared actually
    hurt readiness in some ways.

    That said, Austria-Hungary was no better. The army that Germany
    believed it absolutely needed to hold off the Russians was supposed to
    attack Serbia and seize Belgrade immediately after Franz Ferdinand's assassination, giving the rest of Europe a fait accompli and
    discouraging France and Britain from aiding Russia, but in practice
    took a month to move against Serbia ... then lost!

    --
    geo:37.783333,-122.416667

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From The Horny Goat@21:1/5 to Byker on Fri Aug 23 17:16:29 2019
    On Wed, 14 Aug 2019 13:44:48 -0500, "Byker" <byker@do~rag.net> wrote:

    "When war broke out in Europe in 1914, it surprised a European population >enjoying the most beautiful summer in memory." Lots of folks remember the >summer of 1939 the same way, that is, until Sept. 1st.

    Complete nonsense - my late grandmother was VERY VERY plain in her
    view that from the time Hitler occupied Prague (Jan 1939) the view was
    nearly universal that it wasn't IF war was coming but WHEN and the
    feeling was that they did well to get to September without war.

    No question the occupation of Prague caused most in the English
    speaking countries to despair of avoiding war - which is not my idea
    of a pleasant summer at all.

    Agreed. WWI did not start accidentally. The Germans knew very well what
    they were doing in encouraging Austria-Hungary.

    I think you're right - but then I'm considered quite outspoken in
    sayig the Versailles article 231 'war guilt' clause was TOTALLY
    justified for this and other reasons.

    The Germans, like Britain and France, wanted an empire too.

    The Greeks 2,400 years ago knew what happens when a rising power rivals a >ruling power: "It was the rise of Athens, and the fear that this instilled
    in Sparta, that made war inevitable." -- Thucydides

    When a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power, it rarely ends >well.

    https://www.amazon.com/Destined-War-America-Escape-Thucydidess-ebook/dp/B01IAS9FZY

    An up-and-coming Germany vs. imperial Britain = WWI

    Japanese imperial expansion vs. United States = WWII

    "In 12 of 16 past cases in which a rising power has confronted a ruling >power, the result has been bloodshed." >https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/thucydides-trap-are-us-and-china-headed-war

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ku8KqQccoUU

    https://foreignpolicy.com/2017/06/09/the-thucydides-trap/

    I've read the book you're referring to but am not completely
    convinced. After all in our time America has avoided war first with
    the Soviets, then with the Chinese. (I'm talking "general" wars like
    WW1 and WW2 not local wars like Korea and the Falklands)

    I enjoyed the author's analysis and recitation of history but using
    the 15th century experience to guide us in the 21st is a stretch.

    I wonder if we'll ever get the straight story regarding the Schlieffen Plan. >"Most of the pre-1914 planning of the German General Staff was secret and
    the documents were destroyed when the deployment plans were superseded every >April. The bombing of Potsdam in April 1945 destroyed the Prussian army >archive and only incomplete records and other documents survived. Some >records became available after the fall of the German Democratic Republic >(GDR), making an outline of German war planning possible for the first time, >proving wrong much post-1918 writing." >https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schlieffen_Plan

    Most of what records that came out of E Germany came out out of 1939.
    I am picking up my hold on Fischer's war aims book at the library
    tomorrow and it will be interesting to see how views have changed
    since the 1960s when Fischer wrote his account.

    Reportedly the German military brass years before, upon seeing Buffalo
    Bill's Wild West Show, paid particular attention as to how the troupe was >able to load all those men and animals on a train and move them to their
    next venue in short order...

    Hmmm. I heard the same story about the Germans and Ringling Brothers.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Byker@21:1/5 to Byker on Sat Aug 24 14:13:12 2019
    XPost: alt.history.what-if

    "The Horny Goat" wrote in message news:6vv0me11ankarl9ani6l95fehhrpa3ch32@4ax.com...

    On Wed, 14 Aug 2019 13:44:48 -0500, "Byker" <byker@do~rag.net> wrote:

    "When war broke out in Europe in 1914, it surprised a European population >>enjoying the most beautiful summer in memory." Lots of folks remember the >>summer of 1939 the same way, that is, until Sept. 1st.

    Complete nonsense - my late grandmother was VERY VERY plain in her view
    that from the time Hitler occupied Prague (Jan 1939) the view was nearly universal that it wasn't IF war was coming but WHEN and the feeling was
    that they did well to get to September without war.

    They remember it as experienced within their own personal bubbles, as seen through rose-colored glasses. I remember reading somewhere of how shocked
    one British historian was when he went through a series of old letters
    between his mother and grandmother, as mom and grandma reminisced about how wonderful the summer of 1916 was (!). Never mind the carnage of Verdun and
    the Somme. Unless you had a friend or relative dying in the trenches, the
    war was something that might as well have happened on another planet.

    At the same time in France, a serialized superhero entertained theater audiences: https://tinyurl.com/y5dtagl7 https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLu3tPCftY2qdny5j5OkR5YInQW4UtUyts

    Reportedly the German military brass years before, upon seeing Buffalo >>Bill's Wild West Show, paid particular attention as to how the troupe was >>able to load all those men and animals on a train and move them to their >>next venue in short order...

    Hmmm. I heard the same story about the Germans and Ringling Brothers.

    The way I heard it:

    "In 1885, Buffalo Bill hired Annie [Oakley] and her husband for his Wild
    West Show and toured with the show for sixteen years. They performed
    throughout the United States and eventually, across Europe. Annie was the
    star of the show, and Frank was working as her manager and assistant.

    "In 1890, Annie was performing in Berlin where among the audience was
    Friedrich Wilhelm II, the last German Emperor (Kaiser) and King of Prussia.
    He was a great admirer of Oakley’s performances who previously had been to several runs of the show.

    "During the show, Annie asked a for a volunteer to accept risking his life
    by holding a cigarette in his mouth from which she would attempt to shoot
    the ashes. She did this regularly while performing, but until that day no
    one was brave enough to accept the challenge except for her husband who
    always stepped forward as her assistant.

    "However, there was a volunteer that time, and it was the Kaiser himself. He was the last person which Annie expected to volunteer for this dangerous shooting act, but she had no choice and invited him onto the stage. She knew that he was one of the most powerful men in Europe and that his life was in
    her hands. She raised her Colt .45 while Kaiser placed a cigar in his mouth
    and she pulled the trigger.

    "She blew away the ashes right off the Kaiser’s cigarette. Had the bullet
    hit him instead of the cigarette placed in his mouth, the event would have changed the course of the history."

    https://tinyurl.com/yyqy7tbq

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)