• The statistics of aircraft production.

    From Geoffrey Sinclair@21:1/5 to All on Tue Nov 1 11:21:02 2016
    "Geoffrey Sinclair" <gsinclairnb@froggy.com.au> wrote in message news:k9adnUMD0-8DdADKnZ2dnUU7-W3NnZ2d@westnet.com.au...

    Update time.

    British military aircraft production, including "Queens" looks
    like this, versus the published totals,

    1944 26,476, versus 26,461
    1945 13,536

    New totals,

    1944 26,477 (+1 Lancaster)
    1945 13,535. (-1 Lancaster)

    The adjustment is trivial, the reasons contain more of a lesson.

    The British production reports system left the original reports
    intact and adjusted cumulative totals when required.

    There is an entry in the February 1945 monthly production report
    for a Lancaster Ic, under the Transports and Air Sea Rescue
    category. Given a number of Lancasters were converted to Air
    Sea Rescue or General Reconnaissance versions in 1945 it
    initially appears one was officially built as such.

    Then in March two Lancastrian I are reported as built that month
    but the cumulative total says three built to date, then in April the Lancastrian I cumulative total is reduced to zero and stays that
    way. Military Lancastrian II production starts in October.

    The RAF contract cards report the only two RAF Lancastrian I
    were delivered in August and October 1945, but they are not in
    the military aircraft production reports.

    In fact the February entry is for a Lancastrian (Lancaster I cargo),
    for civil use, the March entry is also for two civil Lancastrians, hence
    three built to end March. Then being civil aircraft they were deleted
    from the military production report cumulative totals The civil
    Lancastrian production details are confirmed by Avro records.

    So the military Lancastrian entry in March is "corrected" by the later omissions, you end up with the two known military Lancastrian I
    either way, but at different times.

    Simply put civil aircraft production began again but the reporting
    system took a while to reflect this and made a couple of near
    self correcting errors.

    Then comes the change of the Lancaster Ic to Lancastrian, meaning
    there is now a missing Lancaster, which is PB414, it has no contract
    card or delivery log entry, it is reported built in 1944 then put on exhibition, no RAF service. Not to be confused with ND575 which
    has its contract card and delivery log entries deleted and was also
    not delivered to the RAF, but was counted in the monthly reports.

    Aircraft might be very expensive items but that does not stop some
    becoming officially difficult to trace.

    For the record including the Lancastrian prototype, 2 out of 23
    mark I were civil aircraft, all 33 mark II military and all 18 mark
    III and 8 mark IV were civil types, with 7 of the mark IV reported
    as mark III in the monthly reports.

    US military aircraft production, for all customers, from Aviation
    Facts and Figures, 1959 edition, with the "for US" figures from the
    1950 CAA Statistical Handbook

    1938 1,800, of which 925 for the US

    Using the USAAF and USN production reports, military aircraft produced
    for the US

    1938 1,246

    No explanation has been found for the difference in the 1938 figures.

    However there is a very suggestive possibility.

    The US stopped publishing production figures for the US military
    aircraft after September 1938. The 9 month total comes to 944.
    Given adjustments to the monthly figures could be made in later
    reports there is a possibility that 944 became 925. Then an initial
    error was made, only counting the 9 months but reporting it as the
    yearly total, and this has been repeated ever since.

    Geoffrey Sinclair
    Remove the nb for email.

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