"Geoffrey Sinclair" <gsinclairnb@froggy.com.au> wrote:
In his book Hitler's U-boat War Clay Blair advocates the loss of
merchant shipping off the US coast in 1942 was not the fault of
the USN or Admiral King, indeed they were the competent ones,
everyone else let them down.
And you don't agree, and see a lot of special pleading by Blair
Coastal Command Sorties per month per aircraft, 1941, 1942, 1943
Catalina 2.87, 2.19, 3.95
Hudson 3.83, 4.56, 7.35
Liberator 1.13, 1.90, 2.597
Sunderland 3.90, 2.81, 3.35
Wellington 3.67, 3.22, 3.77
Hours per sortie
Catalina 13.7, 13.5, 15.44
Hudson 4.8, 5.28, 5.96
Liberator 10.88, 10.92, 12.27
Sunderland 8.42, 10.78, 11.56
Wellington 6.68, 8.14, 8.35
The above derived from sortie and average strength totals. The 8th Air
Force had real problems in maintaining early operations, was continually
expanding until June 1944 then managed 2 crews per heavy bomber in
the second half of 1944, effective sorties per 4 engined bomber per
month,
Aug-42 1.18
Sep-42 0.67
Oct-42 0.66
Nov-42 1.22
Dec-42 0.83
Jan-43 1.29
Feb-43 1.96
Mar-43 3.9
Apr-43 1.16
May-43 3.2
Jun-43 2.09
Jul-43 2.7
Aug-43 2.99
Sep-43 3.59
Jan-44 5.6
Feb-44 6.36
Mar-44 5.67
Apr-44 5.99
May-44 6.78
Jun-44 9.56
Jul-44 8.45
Aug-44 8.58
Sep-44 7.81
Oct-44 8.13
Nov-44 7.22
Dec-44 8.35
Jan-45 8.13
Feb-45 11.22
Mar-45 15.27
Apr-45 9.86
Some of these numbers seem absurdly low. I would guess
that those numbers are combat sorties / total aircraft
in service, including planes in transit from factories,
planes used in training, etc.
I can't believe only two sorties/month for PBYs in
1942, for instance. Dan Gallery in _U-505_ discussed
the difficulties of operating PBYs from Iceland. I
don't recall how many sorties per day he needed to
mount to maintain a continuous patrol over a convoy
to the south... Call it N. He stated that each plane,
after a day's run, would spend the next day being
checked out and maintained. So 2 X N.
Every plane needed a full three-day engine tear-down
and rebuild once a month; another 10%.
Spares for accidents and breakdowns: another 20%
So 2.64 N planes required - then x 2 again for
training, etc. (Though he offered to make to with
only 50% reserves.) He calculated that he should
have had 26 planes - but he only had 12.
The Germans were reading RN and merchant ship codes,
Enigma would have revealed this.
Not directly. In July 1941-Jan 1942, when the British
were reading most naval Enigma, the Admiralty did not
realize the Germans were reading BAMS. Some analysts
suggested this, but were dismissed. IIRC, the Admiralty
was finally persuaded only in 1943 by Rodger Winn of
the Tracking Room, and only after a long campaing by him.
Now if the allies halved the around 10 month
blackout period to 5 months that would be end July 1942...
Which would be nice - but the break into TRITON couldn't
happen until the capture of key Enigma and other German
coding material (the additional Enigma wheels and the Short
Signal Book). That was a matter of luck (and extraordinary
courage). I don't think the USN could have done anything to
hasten it.
In his book Hitler's U-boat War Clay Blair advocates the loss of
merchant shipping off the US coast in 1942 was not the fault of
the USN or Admiral King, indeed they were the competent ones,
everyone else let them down.
Coastal Command Sorties per month per aircraft, 1941, 1942, 1943
Catalina 2.87, 2.19, 3.95
Hudson 3.83, 4.56, 7.35
Liberator 1.13, 1.90, 2.597
Sunderland 3.90, 2.81, 3.35
Wellington 3.67, 3.22, 3.77
Hours per sortie
Catalina 13.7, 13.5, 15.44
Hudson 4.8, 5.28, 5.96
Liberator 10.88, 10.92, 12.27
Sunderland 8.42, 10.78, 11.56
Wellington 6.68, 8.14, 8.35
The above derived from sortie and average strength totals. The 8th Air
Force had real problems in maintaining early operations, was continually expanding until June 1944 then managed 2 crews per heavy bomber in
the second half of 1944, effective sorties per 4 engined bomber per month,
Aug-42 1.18
Sep-42 0.67
Oct-42 0.66
Nov-42 1.22
Dec-42 0.83
Jan-43 1.29
Feb-43 1.96
Mar-43 3.9
Apr-43 1.16
May-43 3.2
Jun-43 2.09
Jul-43 2.7
Aug-43 2.99
Sep-43 3.59
Jan-44 5.6
Feb-44 6.36
Mar-44 5.67
Apr-44 5.99
May-44 6.78
Jun-44 9.56
Jul-44 8.45
Aug-44 8.58
Sep-44 7.81
Oct-44 8.13
Nov-44 7.22
Dec-44 8.35
Jan-45 8.13
Feb-45 11.22
Mar-45 15.27
Apr-45 9.86
The Germans were reading RN and merchant ship codes,
Enigma would have revealed this.
Now if the allies halved the around 10 month
blackout period to 5 months that would be end July 1942...
As for strengths they are aircraft in combat units, end of
story, from the regular Orders of Battle. They do not count
reserves, do not count planes en route, though in the 8th AF
case they may include the assembly ships as they were on
group strength.
I looked up the OOB and strength figures for the combat
units. I did not add reserves.
For example, the 8th Air force heavy bomber units as of
6 June 1944, group, aircraft type, strength, location.
401 B-17 57 Deenethorpe
Yes the sorties figures look very low, that is the result, apart
from the aircraft themselves there needs to be crews ready
to go. After an all day sortie how much rest do you think
a crew needed before going again? The 8th Air Force
noted it could use 2 crews per heavy bomber.
Then add weather, there were plenty of no fly days.
I can't believe only two sorties/month for PBYs in
1942, for instance. Dan Gallery in _U-505_ discussed
the difficulties of operating PBYs from Iceland....
So the convoy requires cover for a given number of days
from Iceland...so he needed 26 aircraft on hand to
cover a convoy for how many days?
What does he say about the sortie totals generated by
his escort carrier?
Does he mention the number of available crews?
There were gaps between convoys.
In 1944 with on average better trained crews arriving and a higher operational tempo it was 73% of hours on combat.
In April 1942 ...713.9 aircraft, 389.5 aircraft with crews.
June 1943, 1,079.6 average aircraft..., 772.9 aircraft with crews.
The June 1944 maximum effort...
... 17,853 sorties, average strength > 1,666.5 aircraft, 1,350.2
aircraft with crews.
[Coastal Command] also had the problem of plenty of
different types in service ... on 1 January 1941
it had [12 different makes]...
as of 1 January 1942 ... [10 different makes]...
as of 1 January 1943, ... [11 different makes]...
I would put it more that the break happened when it did
because of the capture...
"Geoffrey Sinclair" <gsinclairnb@froggy.com.au> wrote:
As for strengths they are aircraft in combat units, end of
story, from the regular Orders of Battle. They do not count
reserves, do not count planes en route, though in the 8th AF
case they may include the assembly ships as they were on
group strength.
I looked up the OOB and strength figures for the combat
units. I did not add reserves.
OK. And of course these are planes on 8AF strength, not
planes elsewhere.
Still, less than 1 sortie/month in 1942;
ISTM that has to be connected to 8AF just starting up
operations. Then the very high rates in 1945 might be
connected to the perception that the war was ending, and
so training and organization activities were pretty much
discontinued.
From my original post,
For example, the 8th Air force heavy bomber units as of
6 June 1944, group, aircraft type, strength, location.
401 B-17 57 Deenethorpe
My late father joined 401 Group about two weeks later.
He flew 30 missions in the next four months.
Yes the sorties figures look very low, that is the result, apart
from the aircraft themselves there needs to be crews ready
to go. After an all day sortie how much rest do you think
a crew needed before going again? The 8th Air Force
noted it could use 2 crews per heavy bomber.
Then add weather, there were plenty of no fly days.
True, but no fly days for weather would "overlap" with
rest days for crew and maintenance days for planes.
I can't believe only two sorties/month for PBYs in
1942, for instance. Dan Gallery in _U-505_ discussed
the difficulties of operating PBYs from Iceland....
So the convoy requires cover for a given number of days
from Iceland...so he needed 26 aircraft on hand to
cover a convoy for how many days?
He did not go into that at all. IIRC, his requirement
was to have one PBY over "the convoy lane" 24/7.
What does he say about the sortie totals generated by
his escort carrier?
Nothing.
There were gaps between convoys.
And times when more than one convoy was passing, i.e.
one eastbound and one westbound.
On top of that - he ran extra training exercises, such as
"TIRPITZ drill". (If TIRPITZ had tried to break out past
Iceland as BISMARCK did, Gallery had an attack plan for
all the Allied airpower in Iceland, including B-17s and
fighters. When an Allied battleship called, he'd stage
a 'dry run' with that ship as target.)
In 1944 with on average better trained crews arriving and a higher
operational tempo it was 73% of hours on combat.
Perhaps also by that time, airfields and ground operation
procedures had been optimized, and many more of the ground
personnel were experienced. (Unlike air crews, they did not
rotate out after a "quota" of missions.)
In April 1942 ...713.9 aircraft, 389.5 aircraft with crews.
June 1943, 1,079.6 average aircraft..., 772.9 aircraft with crews.
The June 1944 maximum effort...
I note that the 8AF sortie rate also surged by 40% that month.
... 17,853 sorties, average strength
1,666.5 aircraft, 1,350.2
aircraft with crews.
Hmmm... You noted above that "The 8th Air Force noted it could
use 2 crews per heavy bomber." But here's Bomber Command with
0.55, 0.72, 0.62 crews per plane?
[Coastal Command] also had the problem of plenty of
different types in service ... on 1 January 1941
it had [12 different makes]...
That would certainly generate a lot of friction and overhead.
as of 1 January 1942 ... [10 different makes]...
as of 1 January 1943, ... [11 different makes]...
What a mess. Especially with old beaters like Hampdens
and Whitleys still flying.
"Geoffrey Sinclair" <gsinclairnb@froggy.com.au> wrote:
The two crews per bomber are a big part. Then add from
September 1944 onwards the German front line was
about the German border, France and Belgium were not
friendly territory.
ITYM - "*now* friendly territory". ???
Have you noticed you are deleting the information, then
either asking for it again or coming up with conclusions
that do not fit?
I try to edit quotations to the minimum; this is
perhaps a habit from when bandwidth was much smaller.
Even now, quoting hundreds of lines for a 2-3 line
response seems gauche.
If TIRPITZ had tried to break out past Iceland...
Gallery had an attack plan for all the Allied
airpower in Iceland, including B-17s and fighters.
There were no US B-17 units on Iceland. And it looks
like very few Coastal Command ones.
I distinctly remember "B-17s commence high-level
attack" as one line in his final summary of the attack
plan. In Iceland, Gallery worked most closely with the
British - as he put it, "we joined the RAF for the
duration". So it seems quite possible that CC B-17s
were included.
I see that. I also see what I missed before - that there
were extras in both aircraft and crews. More total aircraft
than crews, but more crews than serviceable aircraft.
But relatively fewer crews / aircraft than the USAF, which
(_if_ I understand this information) sought to "saturate"
the crew side of the equation, to get the maximum use of
the aircraft.
The two crews per bomber are a big part. Then add from
September 1944 onwards the German front line was
about the German border, France and Belgium were not
friendly territory.
Have you noticed you are deleting the information, then
either asking for it again or coming up with conclusions
that do not fit?
He did not go into that at all. IIRC, his requirement
was to have one PBY over "the convoy lane" 24/7.
Right and that took 26 PBY when the RAF was talking about
12 hour sorties. Does he mention loiter time where the
convoy was?
If TIRPITZ had tried to break out past Iceland...
Gallery had an attack plan for all the Allied
airpower in Iceland, including B-17s and fighters.
There were no US B-17 units on Iceland. And it looks
like very few Coastal Command ones.
Hmmm... You noted above that "The 8th Air Force noted it could
use 2 crews per heavy bomber." But here's Bomber Command with
0.55, 0.72, 0.62 crews per plane?
Again you have effectively deleted the answer to your question.
To repeat,
For the period 1 April 1942 to 10 May 1945, when
Bomber Command recorded strength, serviceable, crews
and aircraft available with crew on a daily basis,
so 1,136 days, the averages were,
1,308.5 aircraft on strength, 989.29 serviceable, 1180.7 crews
939.71 aircraft with crews. So around 71.8% of strength was
available on average. For 1 April to 31 December 1942 it
was 62.4%
Note the average number of crews versus the average number of
aircraft with crews. Yes the RAF system enabled more aircraft
than crews, the US system managed the opposite.
In his book Hitler's U-boat War Clay Blair advocates the loss of
merchant shipping off the US coast in 1942 was not the fault of
the USN or Admiral King, indeed they were the competent ones,
everyone else let them down.
The first two chapters of the U-boat war against the Americas
read to me more like an attack on those who disagree with the
conclusion, rather than a history of the actual U-boat operations.
The photographs of the major players tend to have simple biographic, captions, the two main exceptions are FDR "failed to properly prepare
the USN for the U-Boat threat in the Atlantic" and Admiral Andrews,
commander of the Eastern Sea Frontier, described as able.
In summary, according to Blair, most historians, particularly British, are astray in accusing US as dumb or inept or criminally neglectful. They
use biased sources and in particular distort Admiral King's position, distortions which have been allowed to stand for all too long. Instead
King had an unusually firm grip on the U-boat menace, was doing his
utmost to improve things, urging all to prepare for US coastal convoys.
"The British contempt for Admiral King and America's alleged inability
to cope with or its indifference to the U-boat threat", the inability was quite clear in the tonnage sunk. The question is why and for Blair the answer is every non USN/USCG player on the allied side. Admiral
King's attitude to the British is never mentioned.
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