• Prepondeance of Evidence

    From J. Hugh Sullivan@21:1/5 to All on Mon Jan 14 13:52:30 2019
    Even if unchallenged for a decade or more, preponderance of evidence
    never becomes real proof. But with the destruction of records in VA
    and NC by war, fire and flood the proof that people need will never be available. But sometimes fragments remain and they lead to
    unassailable conclusions.

    Do most resondents here include PoE with proper notation in your
    genealogy, or do most of you stop including people when the actual
    proof stops?

    What we use as proof can often be misleading. Children often changed
    families because of death, baseborn children usually assumed the name
    of the mother leading to improper assumption of facts because of
    scarcity of facts, etc. Sometimes we just don't know that our proof is
    not proof.

    A discussion might be interesting.

    Hugh

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  • From J. Hugh Sullivan@21:1/5 to All on Mon Jan 14 14:59:36 2019
    I can spell preponderance, my keyboad apparently can't.

    Hugh

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  • From Denis Beauregard@21:1/5 to Sullivan on Mon Jan 14 11:02:01 2019
    On Mon, 14 Jan 2019 13:52:30 GMT, Eagle@bellsouth.net (J. Hugh
    Sullivan) wrote in soc.genealogy.computing:

    Even if unchallenged for a decade or more, preponderance of evidence
    never becomes real proof. But with the destruction of records in VA
    and NC by war, fire and flood the proof that people need will never be >available. But sometimes fragments remain and they lead to
    unassailable conclusions.

    Do most resondents here include PoE with proper notation in your
    genealogy, or do most of you stop including people when the actual
    proof stops?

    What we use as proof can often be misleading. Children often changed
    families because of death, baseborn children usually assumed the name
    of the mother leading to improper assumption of facts because of
    scarcity of facts, etc. Sometimes we just don't know that our proof is
    not proof.

    A discussion might be interesting.

    In the population I study, many other people made also they own
    studies, and many more descendants added hypothesis to link families
    when records are lost.

    Thanks to MT-DNA, in some cases, the parents on the mother side can
    be corrected. Nonetheless, this is not frequent. In most cases, I
    use them anyway.

    I just add some mark near the link. Probably or possibily, depending
    on my opinion about the strenght of the evidence.


    Denis

    --
    Denis Beauregard - généalogiste émérite (FQSG)
    Les Français d'Amérique du Nord - http://www.francogene.com/gfan/gfan/998/ French in North America before 1722 - http://www.francogene.com/gfna/gfna/998/ Sur cédérom/DVD/USB à 1790 - On CD-ROM/DVD/USB to 1790

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  • From Ian Goddard@21:1/5 to J. Hugh Sullivan on Mon Jan 14 16:29:51 2019
    On 14/01/19 13:52, J. Hugh Sullivan wrote:
    Even if unchallenged for a decade or more, preponderance of evidence
    never becomes real proof. But with the destruction of records in VA
    and NC by war, fire and flood the proof that people need will never be available. But sometimes fragments remain and they lead to
    unassailable conclusions.

    Two thoughts (from an ex forensic scientist):

    From a forensic point of view if one were assembling genealogical
    evidence for a case at civil law, say to decide on an inheritance, then
    that would be the standard of proof.

    From a scientific point of view one doesn't expect a theory to be
    conclusively proven, just proven false if it's wrong. Accept what
    conclusion the currently available evidence seems to be pointing to but
    be open to the contradictory fact that might come along later. Of
    course the would-be contradictory fact will have to be closely examined
    - but then all the contributory evidence that's established the
    conclusion being challenged should have been closely examined as it was acquired.

    Ian

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  • From J. Hugh Sullivan@21:1/5 to denis.b-at-francogene.com@fr.invali on Mon Jan 14 20:06:59 2019
    On Mon, 14 Jan 2019 11:02:01 -0500, Denis Beauregard <denis.b-at-francogene.com@fr.invalid> wrote:


    In the population I study, many other people made also they own
    studies, and many more descendants added hypothesis to link families
    when records are lost.

    Thanks to MT-DNA, in some cases, the parents on the mother side can
    be corrected. Nonetheless, this is not frequent. In most cases, I
    use them anyway.

    I just add some mark near the link. Probably or possibily, depending
    on my opinion about the strenght of the evidence.


    Denis

    Merci, you always help, Denis.

    Hugh

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  • From J. Hugh Sullivan@21:1/5 to goddai01@hotmail.co.uk on Mon Jan 14 20:19:36 2019
    On Mon, 14 Jan 2019 16:29:51 +0000, Ian Goddard
    <goddai01@hotmail.co.uk> wrote:

    On 14/01/19 13:52, J. Hugh Sullivan wrote:
    Even if unchallenged for a decade or more, preponderance of evidence
    never becomes real proof. But with the destruction of records in VA
    and NC by war, fire and flood the proof that people need will never be
    available. But sometimes fragments remain and they lead to
    unassailable conclusions.

    Two thoughts (from an ex forensic scientist):

    From a forensic point of view if one were assembling genealogical
    evidence for a case at civil law, say to decide on an inheritance, then
    that would be the standard of proof.

    From a scientific point of view one doesn't expect a theory to be
    conclusively proven, just proven false if it's wrong. Accept what
    conclusion the currently available evidence seems to be pointing to but
    be open to the contradictory fact that might come along later. Of
    course the would-be contradictory fact will have to be closely examined
    - but then all the contributory evidence that's established the
    conclusion being challenged should have been closely examined as it was >acquired.

    Ian

    I can easily accept that. There are other theories that I can
    disprove. But without actual proof I will always wonder if I have
    missed something.

    To me, no slight intended, science is what it is until something
    better comes along.

    Thank you,

    Hugh

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  • From shmartonak@gmail.com@21:1/5 to J. Hugh Sullivan on Tue Jan 15 03:19:11 2019
    On Monday, January 14, 2019 at 7:52:32 AM UTC-6, J. Hugh Sullivan wrote:
    Even if unchallenged for a decade or more, preponderance of evidence
    never becomes real proof. But with the destruction of records in VA
    and NC by war, fire and flood the proof that people need will never be available. But sometimes fragments remain and they lead to
    unassailable conclusions.

    Do most resondents here include PoE with proper notation in your
    genealogy, or do most of you stop including people when the actual
    proof stops?

    What we use as proof can often be misleading. Children often changed
    families because of death, baseborn children usually assumed the name
    of the mother leading to improper assumption of facts because of
    scarcity of facts, etc. Sometimes we just don't know that our proof is
    not proof.

    A discussion might be interesting.

    Hugh

    Preponderance of evidence is all we can ever deal with. Mama's baby, Papa's maybe. And we don't even know for sure that it's Mama's baby (don't royal births always have a witness?) I try to think that I'm in front of a jury of 12 reputable (whatever
    that means) genealogists and I need to convince them of something. You just go with what you've got.

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  • From J. Hugh Sullivan@21:1/5 to shmartonak@gmail.com on Tue Jan 15 11:41:36 2019
    On Tue, 15 Jan 2019 03:19:11 -0800 (PST), shmartonak@gmail.com wrote:


    Preponderance of evidence is all we can ever deal with. Mama's baby, Papa'= >s maybe.

    A lot of purists who trace back to Charlemagne will be upset with
    that. But it's too true to ignore - sorta turns all genealogists into
    Family Historians.

    And we don't even know for sure that it's Mama's baby (don't roya=
    l births always have a witness?) I try to think that I'm in front of a jur= >y of 12 reputable (whatever that means) genealogists and I need to convince=
    them of something. You just go with what you've got.

    That certainly adds a more casual view to genealogy. The problem is
    that it makes poor researchers equal to expert researchers. I can find
    9 sets of parents on Ancestry for a person I research and all can be
    proven wrong. Yet they will be there forever because somebody says so.

    I even find one of my old theories posted as fact and I disproved it
    20 years ago. Fortunately they credited themselves, not me.

    Hugh

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  • From Ian Goddard@21:1/5 to J. Hugh Sullivan on Tue Jan 15 12:33:04 2019
    On 14/01/19 20:19, J. Hugh Sullivan wrote:
    To me, no slight intended, science is what it is until something
    better comes along.

    This is the essence of any scientific theory.

    Ian

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  • From Charlie Hoffpauir@21:1/5 to Sullivan on Tue Jan 15 12:27:24 2019
    On Tue, 15 Jan 2019 11:41:36 GMT, Eagle@bellsouth.net (J. Hugh
    Sullivan) wrote:

    On Tue, 15 Jan 2019 03:19:11 -0800 (PST), shmartonak@gmail.com wrote:


    Preponderance of evidence is all we can ever deal with. Mama's baby, Papa'= >>s maybe.

    A lot of purists who trace back to Charlemagne will be upset with
    that. But it's too true to ignore - sorta turns all genealogists into
    Family Historians.

    And we don't even know for sure that it's Mama's baby (don't roya=
    l births always have a witness?) I try to think that I'm in front of a jur= >>y of 12 reputable (whatever that means) genealogists and I need to convince= >> them of something. You just go with what you've got.

    That certainly adds a more casual view to genealogy. The problem is
    that it makes poor researchers equal to expert researchers. I can find
    9 sets of parents on Ancestry for a person I research and all can be
    proven wrong. Yet they will be there forever because somebody says so.

    I even find one of my old theories posted as fact and I disproved it
    20 years ago. Fortunately they credited themselves, not me.

    Hugh
    Great comments in this thread!
    Even "facts" given by one's parents or grandparents sometimes turn out
    to be a fabrication. An excellent example was the "fact" (discussed in
    the recent "Finding your Roots") that George R.R. Martin's grandfather
    had abandoned his wife and took up with another woman, when it turns
    out that it was his wife that had been impregnated by another man, and
    the man that Martin had always thought to be his grandfather wasn't
    any relationship to him at all!
    I guess we have to say "proof" must be confirmed by DNA, everything
    else has to be considered as our best understanding.

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  • From J. Hugh Sullivan@21:1/5 to invalid@invalid.com on Tue Jan 15 21:01:27 2019
    On Tue, 15 Jan 2019 12:27:24 -0600, Charlie Hoffpauir
    <invalid@invalid.com> wrote:

    On Tue, 15 Jan 2019 11:41:36 GMT, Eagle@bellsouth.net (J. Hugh
    Sullivan) wrote:

    On Tue, 15 Jan 2019 03:19:11 -0800 (PST), shmartonak@gmail.com wrote:


    Preponderance of evidence is all we can ever deal with. Mama's baby, Papa'= >>>s maybe.

    A lot of purists who trace back to Charlemagne will be upset with
    that. But it's too true to ignore - sorta turns all genealogists into >>Family Historians.

    And we don't even know for sure that it's Mama's baby (don't roya=
    l births always have a witness?) I try to think that I'm in front of a jur= >>>y of 12 reputable (whatever that means) genealogists and I need to convince= >>> them of something. You just go with what you've got.

    That certainly adds a more casual view to genealogy. The problem is
    that it makes poor researchers equal to expert researchers. I can find
    9 sets of parents on Ancestry for a person I research and all can be
    proven wrong. Yet they will be there forever because somebody says so.

    I even find one of my old theories posted as fact and I disproved it
    20 years ago. Fortunately they credited themselves, not me.

    Hugh
    Great comments in this thread!
    Even "facts" given by one's parents or grandparents sometimes turn out
    to be a fabrication. An excellent example was the "fact" (discussed in
    the recent "Finding your Roots") that George R.R. Martin's grandfather
    had abandoned his wife and took up with another woman, when it turns
    out that it was his wife that had been impregnated by another man, and
    the man that Martin had always thought to be his grandfather wasn't
    any relationship to him at all!
    I guess we have to say "proof" must be confirmed by DNA, everything
    else has to be considered as our best understanding.

    My problem, and I may have mentioned it before, is that I am an exact
    match at 67 steps with a man named Wyatt. As far as I can determine he
    does not match any other tested Wyatt. I do not match any other tested
    Sullivan other than a known cousin. His proven family has not left the
    New England area, while mine originated in NC and moved to AL in 1835. Obviously some hanki got panked in England in the late 1600s or early
    1700s.

    Just a few hours ago I saw my gg grandfather, Russell, listed as a
    Wyatt in the NC area where I know he was raised. The researcher has
    him listed as a Wyatt until he was deceased in 1849. But he was a
    Sullivan as early as 1816 according to published records.

    I find him being a Wyatt acceptable, perhaps even better than my
    previous preponderance of evidence. It is not disproved, it just
    appears that something better came along.

    But I have a lot of research to do - matching genealogy with the early
    census records, name change from Wyatt to Sullivan, and some not too
    accurate Wyatt genealogy.

    I have researched the Wyatts back to 1320 - to 1656 in the USA.

    Hugh

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  • From Ian Goddard@21:1/5 to Charlie Hoffpauir on Tue Jan 15 22:06:40 2019
    On 15/01/19 18:27, Charlie Hoffpauir wrote:
    Even "facts" given by one's parents or grandparents sometimes turn out
    to be a fabrication.

    One of my "facts" was that my ggfather, aged 14, refused to join the
    rest of the family when his father decided to emigrate. There are
    grains of truth but I suspect the story was a cover for the father's
    having committed suicide (when ggf was about 16). Various brothers did emigrate but not altogether; two at least 2 years after the event and
    one and probably both the other brothers at least 5 years later.

    Others have been more accurate but possibly saying grandfather rather
    than great-grandfather - I find it all too easy to make the same mistake
    when talking to my own grandchildren so I'll make allowances there ;)

    Ian

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  • From Richard Smith@21:1/5 to J. Hugh Sullivan on Thu Jan 17 01:05:45 2019
    On 15/01/2019 21:01, J. Hugh Sullivan wrote:

    I have researched the Wyatts back to 1320 - to 1656 in the USA.

    Whereabouts were they from before moving to the United States.

    Richard

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  • From J. Hugh Sullivan@21:1/5 to richard@ex-parrot.com on Thu Jan 17 11:21:27 2019
    On Thu, 17 Jan 2019 01:05:45 +0000, Richard Smith
    <richard@ex-parrot.com> wrote:

    On 15/01/2019 21:01, J. Hugh Sullivan wrote:

    I have researched the Wyatts back to 1320 - to 1656 in the USA.

    Whereabouts were they from before moving to the United States.

    Richard

    There were apparently 2 branches of Wyatts in Wales and England. I
    have not seen where anyone has been able to link them.

    One branch immigrated to the New England States while the other went
    to VA. I have not seen them linked and I can't link them. But I have
    researched the genealogy of both.

    Some Wyatts came from France about the time of William the Conquerer.
    But I am not a Norman from France. My line, whether Wyatt or Sullivan,
    is Angle or Saxon via the Germanic area.

    It's strange that the Wyatt I match does not match any other Wyatts
    (so far). I could be a Wyatt because I don't match any other Sullivans
    (except a known cousin). But, if he does not match a Wyatt neither of
    us are Wyatts. He has been a Wyatt since 1614 and I have been a
    Sullivan since 1816 (maybe 1790).

    Another problem exists because a Sullivan researcher from more than 50
    years ago gave my gg grand a middle or early surname that is neither
    Wyatt nor Sullivan. It's widely posted but there is no evidence other
    than his notes.

    My current problem is the inability to separate the coincidences from
    facts. I can create too many defensible scenarios.

    I apologize if my narration of my situation is improper or boring.

    Hugh

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  • From Richard Smith@21:1/5 to J. Hugh Sullivan on Thu Jan 17 16:08:44 2019
    On 17/01/2019 11:21, J. Hugh Sullivan wrote:
    On Thu, 17 Jan 2019 01:05:45 +0000, Richard Smith
    <richard@ex-parrot.com> wrote:

    On 15/01/2019 21:01, J. Hugh Sullivan wrote:

    I have researched the Wyatts back to 1320 - to 1656 in the USA.

    Whereabouts were they from before moving to the United States.

    There were apparently 2 branches of Wyatts in Wales and England. I
    have not seen where anyone has been able to link them.

    I was hoping for something a little more specific than "Wales and
    England". The name is most common along the south coast, particularly
    in Devon. I have two sets of ancestors with the surname, both from the
    south coast of Hampshire (one from Fawley, the other from Bishop's
    Waltham). Probably they're related to each other, but I've not looked
    hard enough to connect them. Although they're not related to me, I've
    also spent a little bit of time researching Wyatt families from Deritend
    in Warwickshire, and of Allington Castle in Kent.

    One branch immigrated to the New England States while the other went
    to VA. I have not seen them linked and I can't link them. But I have researched the genealogy of both.

    Would I be right in thinking the family from Allington is the one which
    moved to Virginia?

    Richard

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  • From J. Hugh Sullivan@21:1/5 to All on Thu Jan 17 16:27:40 2019
    On Thu, 17 Jan 2019 16:08:44 +0000, Richard Smith
    <richard@ex-parrot.com> wrote:

    Below is the line on the Wyatts who immigrated to VA as I have them.
    It did not format very well.

    1-Adam Wiat b. 1320, Yorkshire England, d. 1385, Southange, Yorkshire
    England
    +Agnes Wigton b. 1325 Yorkshire England d. 1550 Yorkshire England
    |--2-William Wiat b. 1350, Kent England, d. 1388
    +Lady Jane Bailiffe b. 1355 Yorkshire England d. 1385 Yorkshire
    England
    |--3-Richard Wiat b. 1383, Kent England, d. 1440
    +Jane Skipworth b. 1380 Kent England m. 1408 d. bef 1442
    |--4-Geoffrey Wiat b. 1410, Yorkshire England d. 1460 England
    +Anne Skipworth b. 1411 Yorkshire England d. 1443
    Gloucestershire England
    |--5-Richard Wiat Sr. b. 1435, Yorkshire England d. 1475 Kent
    England
    +Margaret Jane Bailiffe b. 1438 Yorkshire England d. 1526
    Kent England
    |--6-Henry Wiat Earl of Norfolk b. 1460, Kent England d.
    10 Oct 1537, Allington, Kent England
    +Anna Skinner b. 1475 Sussex England m. 1502 d. 1503
    Kent England
    |--7-Sir Thomas Wiat The Elder The Poet b. 1503 Kent
    England, d. 11 Oct 1542 Dorset England
    +Lady Elizabeth Brooke b. 1503 Kent England d. 1560
    Kent England
    |--8-Sir Thomas Wiat The Younger b. 1521, Kent
    England d. 11 Apr 1554, London England
    | +Jane Hawt b. 1522 Kent England m. 1537 d. 1600
    Kent England
    | |--9-Sir George Wiat b. 1550, Allington, Kent
    England, d. 1 Sep 1623, Ireland
    | +Lady Jane Finch b. 1555 Kent England m. 8
    Oct 1582 d. 1646 Kent England
    | |--10-REV Haute Wyatt b. 6 Jun 1594 Kent
    England, d. 31 Jul 1638, Kent England
    | +Anne Lee Cox b. 1605 Kent England, m.
    1629, England, d. 28 Feb 1631 Kent England

    Rev. Haute Wyatt was the first to this country and his brother was
    governor of VA. He returned to England but has descendants here.

    I have the other line also but not in a brief format.

    Hugh

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  • From Richard Smith@21:1/5 to J. Hugh Sullivan on Thu Jan 17 17:20:08 2019
    On 17/01/2019 16:27, J. Hugh Sullivan wrote:
    On Thu, 17 Jan 2019 16:08:44 +0000, Richard Smith
    <richard@ex-parrot.com> wrote:

    Below is the line on the Wyatts who immigrated to VA as I have them.
    It did not format very well.

    1-Adam Wiat b. 1320, Yorkshire England
    2-William Wiat b. 1350, Kent England
    3-Richard Wiat b. 1383, Kent England
    4-Geoffrey Wiat b. 1410, Yorkshire England
    5-Richard Wiat Sr. b. 1435, Yorkshire England
    6-Henry Wiat Earl of Norfolk b. 1460, Kent England
    7-Sir Thomas Wiat The Elder The Poet b. 1503 Kent England
    8-Sir Thomas Wiat The Younger b. 1521, Kent England
    9-Sir George Wiat b. 1550, Allington, Kent England
    10-REV Haute Wyatt b. 6 Jun 1594 Kent

    Thanks. That's the same family I spent a while researching, though my
    focus was really only on generation 5-8, so I can't add anything to what
    you have.

    (So far as I know, they're not related to me, but they cropped up in my
    work on the Rogers family of Bryanston, who I am descended from. So
    much of what's been published on the Rogers family says that John
    Rogers, the Marian martyr, was descended from both the Rogers family of Bryanston and the Wyatt family of Allington. Neither is true.)

    Richard

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  • From J. Hugh Sullivan@21:1/5 to richard@ex-parrot.com on Thu Jan 17 19:14:11 2019
    On Thu, 17 Jan 2019 17:20:08 +0000, Richard Smith
    <richard@ex-parrot.com> wrote:

    Thanks. That's the same family I spent a while researching, though my
    focus was really only on generation 5-8, so I can't add anything to what
    you have.

    What I posted was mostly copy work that I could not confirm except
    Haute. I have the line to 1819 in Nash Co. NC and I have confirmed
    most of that. In fact I found errors that I suggested be corrected to
    a Wyatt group.

    I have 2 scenarios neither of which can be proved nor disproved. Since
    the Wyatt I match apparently does not YDNA match any other Wyatts, one
    of the scenarios may be wrong. OTOH I may not have all the facts.

    If this was easy I would have quit a long time ago.

    Hugh

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