• Luttwak: Poland Is Not the Model NATO Ally

    From Basia@21:1/5 to All on Fri Sep 15 21:58:12 2023
    Dobry tekst z Wall Street Journal.
    Luttwak ma sporo racji szkoda ze konkluduje
    swoj tekst proba szantazu wycofania z Polski
    wojsk amerykanskich.

    Luttwak: Poland Is Not the Model NATO Ally

    It wastes money on fancy helicopters and target-only frigates while not doing what responsible countries near Russia must do.

    Andrew A. Michta’s op-ed “Station U.S. Troops in Poland, Not Germany” (Sept. 6) ignores that U.S. troops are conveniently stationed in Germany to be deployable anywhere in Europe and beyond. They aren’t a garrison to defend Germany, Europe’s
    most populous country, which must provide whatever troops it deems necessary for its own defense.

    To move the 25,000 or so troops from Germany to Poland, adding to the 10,000 already most unwisely stationed in that country, wouldn’t suffice to defend Poland even against today’s poorly led Russian army. Instead, it would transform the 25,000 from
    deployable forces to a deterrence “trip wire”; an attack against them would be supposed to trigger an all-out war against Russia.

    But to station U.S. troops in Poland would also have an immediate, nonhypothetical and negative effect on Poland’s defense. It would legitimate and perpetuate the irresponsible Polish policy that wastes money on fancy helicopters and target-only
    frigates in the Baltic Sea, while not doing what responsible countries near Russia must do. That is, to conscript their youth for short and intensive training for subsequent service in equipped reserve units that can be mobilized quickly to defend their
    country—with the support of allied air power, if necessary, but with no need of U.S. or other foreign troops.

    Finland does that, so that its 5.5 million inhabitants can field an army of 250,000 at short notice. Sweden restored conscription immediately after Russia’s seizure of Crimea.

    With around 40 million people, Poland had only 42,000 trained soldiers when the Ukraine war started. While in Warsaw in November 2021, I asked why. Answer: We can’t afford more. I asked why they were buying expensive helicopters. Answer: Because Polish
    troops on peacekeeping missions shouldn’t be ashamed of their old Soviet helicopters. Why the half-billion-dollar frigate? Answer: Because Poland is a naval power (?). Even the F-35s, bought most expensively, are mostly for show; very few missiles were
    ordered.

    Instead of sending more U.S. troops to Poland, a deadline should be set to withdraw them all unless Poland conscripts its youth to defend their own country, as the Finns and Swedes do. NATO membership wasn’t meant to be an excuse for irresponsibility.

    Edward N. Luttwak
    Chevy Chase, Md.

    Mr. Luttwak, a consultant to governments and militaries, is author of “Strategy: The Logic of War and Peace.”

    Copyright ©2023 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8
    Appeared in the September 12, 2023, print edition as 'Luttwak: Poland Is Not the Model NATO Ally'.

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  • From A. Filip@21:1/5 to All on Sat Sep 16 07:52:06 2023
    Basia <abjjkst@sbcglobal.net> pisze:
    Dobry tekst z Wall Street Journal.
    Luttwak ma sporo racji szkoda ze konkluduje
    swoj tekst proba szantazu wycofania z Polski
    wojsk amerykanskich.

    Luttwak: Poland Is Not the Model NATO Ally

    It wastes money on fancy helicopters and target-only frigates while not doing what responsible countries near Russia must do.

    Andrew A. Michta’s op-ed “Station U.S. Troops in Poland, Not Germany” (Sept. 6) ignores that U.S. troops are conveniently stationed in
    Germany to be deployable anywhere in Europe and beyond. They aren’t a garrison to defend Germany, Europe’s most populous country, which must provide whatever troops it deems necessary for its own defense.

    To move the 25,000 or so troops from Germany to Poland, adding to the
    10,000 already most unwisely stationed in that country, wouldn’t
    suffice to defend Poland even against today’s poorly led Russian
    army. Instead, it would transform the 25,000 from deployable forces to
    a deterrence “trip wire”; an attack against them would be supposed to trigger an all-out war against Russia.
    […]

    Przemieszczenie "wszystkich" wojsk USA z Niemiec do RP3 w średniej perspektywie jest raczej mało prawdopodobne chyba że to Rosja wykona coś
    ala bardzo wielką udana głęboka ofensywę na Ukrainie (niespecjalnie prawdopodobne ale możliwe). Realistycznie scenariusze bazowe to przemieszczanie "po trochu" (góra kilka tysięcy rocznie) albo na
    okrągło kilkumiesięczne ćwiczenia w RP3 jednostek stacjonujących w Niemczech (góra 1/3 sił ruchomych na raz).

    Wariant ćwiczeń wydaje się dość eleganckim rozwiązaniem startowym
    IMHO mającym spory sens polityczny i wojskowy.

    --
    A. Filip
    | Serce nie ufa ustom. (Przysłowie żydowskie)

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  • From Basia@21:1/5 to A. Filip on Sat Sep 16 18:25:55 2023
    On Friday, September 15, 2023 at 10:52:59 PM UTC-7, A. Filip wrote:
    Basia <abj...@sbcglobal.net> pisze:
    Dobry tekst z Wall Street Journal.
    Luttwak ma sporo racji szkoda ze konkluduje
    swoj tekst proba szantazu wycofania z Polski
    wojsk amerykanskich.

    Luttwak: Poland Is Not the Model NATO Ally

    It wastes money on fancy helicopters and target-only frigates while not doing what responsible countries near Russia must do.

    Andrew A. Michta’s op-ed “Station U.S. Troops in Poland, Not Germany”
    (Sept. 6) ignores that U.S. troops are conveniently stationed in
    Germany to be deployable anywhere in Europe and beyond. They aren’t a garrison to defend Germany, Europe’s most populous country, which must provide whatever troops it deems necessary for its own defense.

    To move the 25,000 or so troops from Germany to Poland, adding to the 10,000 already most unwisely stationed in that country, wouldn’t
    suffice to defend Poland even against today’s poorly led Russian
    army. Instead, it would transform the 25,000 from deployable forces to
    a deterrence “trip wire”; an attack against them would be supposed to trigger an all-out war against Russia.
    […]

    Przemieszczenie "wszystkich" wojsk USA z Niemiec do RP3 w średniej perspektywie jest raczej mało prawdopodobne

    Obawiam sie ze Luttwak wie ze przeniesienie
    35 tysiecy Amerykanow z Niemiec do Polski
    nie rozwiazuje problemu. Gdyby przeniesienie
    kilkudziesieciu tysiecy amerykanskich zolnierzy
    do Polski rozwiazywalo ukrainski problem
    zapewne bylby pierwszym proponenetem
    takiego transferu.

    Luttwak widzi skale problemu oraz to ze
    post-komuna chce nieograniczonymi zakupami
    broni wykupic sie od ewentualnej potrzeby zlozenia
    ofiary z dziesiatek tysiecy ludzi, pisze wiec w
    nadziei wyprowadzienia post komuszego towarzystwa
    z bledu.

    Ze w nieprzyjemny dla Polakow sposob?
    Byc moze obral styl dla lepszego dotarcia
    do odbiorcy.

    Basia (Ona/Jej)

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  • From Basia@21:1/5 to All on Sun Sep 17 18:14:05 2023

    Luttwak: Poland Is Not the Model NATO Ally

    It wastes money on fancy helicopters and target-only frigates while not doing what responsible countries near Russia must do.

    Andrew A. Michta’s op-ed “Station U.S. Troops in Poland, Not Germany” (Sept. 6) ignores that U.S. troops are conveniently stationed in Germany to be deployable anywhere in Europe and beyond. They aren’t a garrison to defend Germany, Europe’s
    most populous country, which must provide whatever troops it deems necessary for its own defense.

    To move the 25,000 or so troops from Germany to Poland, adding to the 10,000 already most unwisely stationed in that country, wouldn’t suffice to defend Poland even against today’s poorly led Russian army. Instead, it would transform the 25,000
    from deployable forces to a deterrence “trip wire”; an attack against them would be supposed to trigger an all-out war against Russia.

    But to station U.S. troops in Poland would also have an immediate, nonhypothetical and negative effect on Poland’s defense. It would legitimate and perpetuate the irresponsible Polish policy that wastes money on fancy helicopters and target-only
    frigates in the Baltic Sea, while not doing what responsible countries near Russia must do. That is, to conscript their youth for short and intensive training for subsequent service in equipped reserve units that can be mobilized quickly to defend their
    country—with the support of allied air power, if necessary, but with no need of U.S. or other foreign troops.

    Finland does that, so that its 5.5 million inhabitants can field an army of 250,000 at short notice. Sweden restored conscription immediately after Russia’s seizure of Crimea.

    With around 40 million people, Poland had only 42,000 trained soldiers when the Ukraine war started. While in Warsaw in November 2021, I asked why. Answer: We can’t afford more. I asked why they were buying expensive helicopters. Answer: Because
    Polish troops on peacekeeping missions shouldn’t be ashamed of their old Soviet helicopters. Why the half-billion-dollar frigate? Answer: Because Poland is a naval power (?). Even the F-35s, bought most expensively, are mostly for show; very few
    missiles were ordered.

    Instead of sending more U.S. troops to Poland, a deadline should be set to withdraw them all unless Poland conscripts its youth to defend their own country, as the Finns and Swedes do. NATO membership wasn’t meant to be an excuse for irresponsibility.


    Edward N. Luttwak

    Autor zaklada ze wlodarze PRL-bis'u moga
    sobie pozwolic na szkolenie rzesz Polakow
    w strzelaniu z broni palnej, nastepnie wyposazyc
    na stale setki tysiecy w bron maszynowa badz
    zapewnic szybki dostep, ...a pozniej permanentnie
    utrzymywac kontrole nad uzbrojonym po zeby
    liczacym grube setki tysiecy ludzi towarzystwem.

    Czy Luttwak jest szalencem niewiem.

    Gdybym miala prorokowac to ze beda transfery
    amerykanskich zolnierzy z baz w Niemczech
    a nie ze bedzie tworzone liczne wojsko na wzor
    szwecki czy finski albo masowe uzbrajanie
    populacji na modle szwajcarska.

    Basi teza: Beda Amerykanie swoimi trepami
    bronili PRL-bis'u, panie Luttwak.

    Basia (Ona/Jej)

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  • From Basia@21:1/5 to Basia on Sun Sep 17 20:52:54 2023
    On Sunday, September 17, 2023 at 6:14:06 PM UTC-7, Basia wrote:
    Luttwak: Poland Is Not the Model NATO Ally

    It wastes money on fancy helicopters and target-only frigates while not doing what responsible countries near Russia must do.

    Andrew A. Michta’s op-ed “Station U.S. Troops in Poland, Not Germany” (Sept. 6) ignores that U.S. troops are conveniently stationed in Germany to be deployable anywhere in Europe and beyond. They aren’t a garrison to defend Germany, Europe’
    s most populous country, which must provide whatever troops it deems necessary for its own defense.

    To move the 25,000 or so troops from Germany to Poland, adding to the 10,000 already most unwisely stationed in that country, wouldn’t suffice to defend Poland even against today’s poorly led Russian army. Instead, it would transform the 25,000
    from deployable forces to a deterrence “trip wire”; an attack against them would be supposed to trigger an all-out war against Russia.

    But to station U.S. troops in Poland would also have an immediate, nonhypothetical and negative effect on Poland’s defense. It would legitimate and perpetuate the irresponsible Polish policy that wastes money on fancy helicopters and target-only
    frigates in the Baltic Sea, while not doing what responsible countries near Russia must do. That is, to conscript their youth for short and intensive training for subsequent service in equipped reserve units that can be mobilized quickly to defend their
    country—with the support of allied air power, if necessary, but with no need of U.S. or other foreign troops.

    Finland does that, so that its 5.5 million inhabitants can field an army of 250,000 at short notice. Sweden restored conscription immediately after Russia’s seizure of Crimea.

    With around 40 million people, Poland had only 42,000 trained soldiers when the Ukraine war started. While in Warsaw in November 2021, I asked why. Answer: We can’t afford more. I asked why they were buying expensive helicopters. Answer: Because
    Polish troops on peacekeeping missions shouldn’t be ashamed of their old Soviet helicopters. Why the half-billion-dollar frigate? Answer: Because Poland is a naval power (?). Even the F-35s, bought most expensively, are mostly for show; very few
    missiles were ordered.

    Instead of sending more U.S. troops to Poland, a deadline should be set to withdraw them all unless Poland conscripts its youth to defend their own country, as the Finns and Swedes do. NATO membership wasn’t meant to be an excuse for
    irresponsibility.

    Edward N. Luttwak

    Autor zaklada ze wlodarze PRL-bis'u moga
    sobie pozwolic na szkolenie rzesz Polakow
    w strzelaniu z broni palnej, nastepnie wyposazyc
    na stale setki tysiecy w bron maszynowa badz
    zapewnic szybki dostep, ...a pozniej permanentnie
    utrzymywac kontrole nad uzbrojonym po zeby
    liczacym grube setki tysiecy ludzi towarzystwem.

    Czy Luttwak jest szalencem niewiem.

    Pewnie ma na mysli wyszkolenie Polakow
    i szybkie rzucenie na front, tylko nie chce
    mowic otwarcie.

    Czas pokaze,
    Basia (Ona/Jej)

    Gdybym miala prorokowac to ze beda transfery
    amerykanskich zolnierzy z baz w Niemczech
    a nie ze bedzie tworzone liczne wojsko na wzor
    szwecki czy finski albo masowe uzbrajanie
    populacji na modle szwajcarska.

    Basi teza: Beda Amerykanie swoimi trepami
    bronili PRL-bis'u, panie Luttwak.

    Basia (Ona/Jej)

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