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  • Re: China's Gen Z graduates fear they have ?blank paper? diplomas as yo

    From China Bidens@21:1/5 to All on Mon Jul 3 09:48:48 2023
    XPost: alt.business, alt.education, alt.fan.rush-limbaugh
    XPost: talk.politics.guns

    On 21 Nov 2021, No COVID Lies <bob7duncan@gmail.com> posted some news:sneg2j$ebb$58@news.dns-netz.com:

    China does not care about the 20%. If they die, they don't eat.

    The trouble began in April. That month, Chinese government data showed
    that one in five young workersbetween the ages of 16 and 24was
    unemployed, a record high. The next month, it was even worse. The problem
    is likely to just metastasize over the coming months: Another 11.6 million graduates will leave college in June to a dearth of job openings and a stumbling economy. Chinas Gen Z is just like Americas, only much more
    burned out and with slim economic hopes.

    The economic data from the worlds second largest economy is grim reading.
    Key economic indicators such as retail sales, manufacturing, exports, and investment are still growing, but not meeting the sky-high expectations proclaimed in the immediate aftermath of the countrys reopening from COVID-zero. A surprise plunge in exports in May now means that China is
    trading less than this time last yearwhen Shanghai, its busiest port, was
    in the middle of a two-month lockdown.

    Worryingly, Chinas youth unemployment rate is surging even as the overall unemployment rate holds steady. Urban unemployment stood at 5.2% in May,
    while youth unemployment was four times higher at 20.8%.

    Chinas work culture is famously tough, especially in the tech sector.
    Internet companies there are renowned for the so-called 996 working
    culture: working from 9:00 am to 9:00 pm, six days a week. Some young
    Chinese have even left professional careers for lower-paying manual labor
    to get out of the countrys tough offices. The surging youth unemployment
    rate suggests theyre opting out entirely.

    President Xi Jinping has resorted to several appeals to young workers to
    roll up their sleeves and adopt a patriotic hard work ethic, encouraging
    the young to eat bitternessa Chinese term that connotes grit and
    enduring hardshipto succeed. In July 2021, at the 100th anniversary of
    the Chinese Communist Party, Xi said that young people have a
    responsibility to rejuvenate the nation, just like their ancestors did,
    which involved working tirelessly and struggling even.

    But a look at Chinese youth culture shows a moonlight clan that is
    lying flat and does not want to eat a lunch of suffering. Take a look
    at Chinas Gen Z and the major struggle of their young careers.

    'A piece of blank paper'
    The dearth of job openings is fueling a sense of disillusionment among
    Chinas young.

    Photos of graduates slumped on the ground, or throwing away their degrees,
    or digitally inserted in front of a burning building litter the countrys social media, as young Chinese joke that their time spent in higher
    education was wasted.

    Employers are reportedly turning away qualified graduates, fearing that
    Chinas extended lockdowns under COVID-zero have prevented university
    students from getting important skills and work experience.

    They said Im a greenhorn. In the words of my interviewer, I am a piece
    of blank paper without any actual work experience, Connie Xu, a 22-year-
    old graduate who has been hunting for jobs, told the South China Morning
    Post earlier this month.

    Chinas social media-savvy youth have come up with several new terms to describe the drudgery of everyday working life. Theres the years-old
    phrase lying flat, which long predates the U.S. term quiet quitting,
    for the idea of just doing the bare minimum to get by and rejecting social expectations. Theres the moonlight clan, young people who spend their paychecks on small luxuries rather than save for an unattainable standard
    of living.

    Even food is seen through a lens of ennui and absurdity: white people
    food was recently trending on Chinese social media with photos of Western cuisine such as ordinary sandwiches, cucumbers and carrots, as office
    workers reject the full meals of Chinese cuisine in favor of a lunch of suffering at their desks.

    Whats causing Chinas youth unemployment?
    In the immediate term, Chinas sluggish post-COVID economic recovery is worsening the youth employment situation.

    Corporates are reluctant to hire because of soft consumer demand, while consumers are reluctant to spend because of [a] weak labor market, wrote
    Larry Hu, chief China economist for the Macquarie Group, in a note in mid- June.

    The governments capital-intensive model of development has done little to
    spur youth employment, says Eswar Prasad, a senior trade policy professor
    at Cornell University and the former China head for the International
    Monetary Fund.

    Frictions like skill mismatch, compounded by overall weak employment
    growth, have dampened employment prospects for Chinese youth, Prasad told Fortune. Many youth are caught in the midst of the economys transition
    to a less manufacturing-intensive economy as well as the governments
    attempts to reduce inefficient employment levels in bloated state-owned enterprises.

    Chinas unemployed youth can be put into two categories, suggests Gerard DiPippo, a senior fellow at the Center of Security and International
    Studies economics program.

    One is the less educated, so those who might not have gone to college, or people that normally would have worked in manufacturing or construction, DiPippo says, noting that the two sectors are doing quite badly in China
    by Chinese standards. (Chinas economy is in the midst of a property
    bust, hitting home prices and dragging down a major source of wealth for Chinese families).

    More educated talent would normally aim for one of Chinas tech giants,
    like Alibaba or Tencent. Yet theyve slowed their hiring substantially in recent years, DiPippo says. He adds that hiring in the gig economy, which
    also absorbs a lot of young labor, has likely peaked.

    Local governments are now proposing different forms of employment to get
    young people working. In March, GuangzhouChinas wealthiest province on
    its southern coastproposed sending 300,000 unemployed young people to
    work in the countryside. And at the beginning of June, Henan, Chinas third-most populous province, ordered its universities to start a 100-day sprint to find graduates jobs in state-owned enterprises, government departments and rural projects.

    The national government, for its part, has offered a 15-point plan to
    boost youth employment, including measures like offering subsidies to
    small- and medium-size enterprises to recruit college graduates, support
    for aspiring entrepreneurs, and encouraging state-owned enterprises to
    hire those early in their career.

    What else is happening?
    Chinese officials recognize that the economic recovery is quickly losing
    steam. Families are wary of investing in new homes, thanks to the ongoing property bust. Businesses are holding back on investment. And consumer
    spending is slowing down after an initial post-COVID burst. Banks
    including Barclays, Goldman Sachs, UBS, and Nomura are all lowering their full-year GDP forecasts for China.

    Chinas central bank cut a short-term interest rate in mid-June, a signal
    that the countrys economic policymakers think more stimulus is needed.
    Beijing will likely continue to cut interest rates, while also offering
    more tax breaks for consumers and financing for infrastructure, according
    to a Bloomberg survey of economists.

    But theres an uncomfortable truth: Even if Beijing gets the recovery back
    on track, the country is not going to grow at the frantic pace reported in
    the 2000s and 2010s. Even before COVID, Chinas GDP growth was slowing,
    hitting 6.0% in 2019 compared to 9.4% a decade earlier. Most economists
    think that China will settle at a GDP growth rate between 4% and 5% in the years to come.

    A country with moderating growth means fewer jobsespecially skilled
    jobsfor millions of new Chinese graduates.

    The next few years will be the most challenging period for employment
    since the start of Chinas reform and opening-up policy, writes Wang
    Mingyuan, a researcher at the Reform and Development Institute of Beijing,
    a think tank. Wangs article, according to Baiguan, a China-focused
    newsletter that translated the piece into English, is now a popular read
    among investors and policymakers in China.

    Unemployment risks becoming a pervasive social problem, Wang warns,
    with one in every four or five households having an unemployed member.

    But to get GDP growthand youth employmentback on track, Beijing will
    need the help of the private sector. That would shift away from the
    greater regulations and focus on state-owned enterprises under current President Xi.

    With the labor force shrinking and with public investment proving
    inefficient and creating financial risks, productivity growth will be
    crucial to Chinas prospects of sustaining decent GDP growth in the coming years, Prasad said. That means supporting private business, he adds.

    Yet for now, China seems wedded to its policies of more moderate stimulus, disappointing both economists and job seekers hoping for a faster economy.

    There are a lot of expectations on the Chinese government to have more stimulus policies, said Zhu Min, a former official at the International Monetary Fund, at Chinas Summer Davos event in Tianjin on Thursday.

    I dont think this is real, he added.

    This story was originally featured on Fortune.com

    Gary713
    1 day ago

    China's economy is driven by exports to the west. China's military
    ambition has caused the west to reduce reliance on Chinese made products. China's economy will keep getting worse until it changes its military
    ambition.

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