https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2023/06/cold-war-china-risks/674272/

A comprehensive article.

"China is in fact a more formidable rival than the Soviet Union ever was. Soviet GDP topped out at about 60 percent of U.S. GDP. In contrast, China’s economy, on its current trajectory, is set to overtake America’s during the next decade. ... China
is developing a high-tech sector on par with that of the United States.
...
China lags way behind the United States when it comes to geopolitical heft and reach. But history makes clear that when major powers ascend economically, expansive geopolitical ambition always follows. China is well on its way.
...
China’s strategic position will also benefit from its teamwork with Russia. ...
If a new cold war emerges, the West will likely face an autocratic bloc that stretches from Europe to the Pacific, compelling the United States to split its forces between two distant theaters.
...
Washington would be mistaken to presume that a new cold war would play out much like the 20th-century version, with democracies on one side, autocracies on the other, and the West enjoying the upper hand.
...
In contrast, today’s world is becoming more multipolar than bipolar; even if the globe is again afflicted by a new bout of East-West rivalry, many countries, including emerging heavyweights, will likely refuse to take sides.
...
Russia’s war against Ukraine has provided a glimpse into this future. Despite the Kremlin’s bald act of aggression, more than three-quarters of the world’s countries have opted to stay on the sidelines, hoping to ride out the war’s disruptive
effects on food and energy supplies while avoiding ensnarement in a new round of East-West rivalry.
...
The fence sitters include major democracies such as India, Indonesia, and Brazil. During the second half of this century, India’s economy is likely to become the world’s second largest after China’s, Indonesia’s is set to become the fourth after
America’s, and Brazil’s will likely be in the top 10.
...
At least for now, the United States can count on such long-standing partners as the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Japan to be staunch allies. But their global sway is on the wane.
...
Furthermore, America’s traditional allies may not be willing to throw their collective weight against China forever. Many European countries maintain lucrative trade links with China and are keeping their distance from the geopolitical duel building
between Washington and Beijing.
...
Even if the West does hang together against China, it must factor in its own political weakness.
...
Democracies have time and again demonstrated their resilience and capacity for self-correction, a track record that provides cause for optimism that the West will eventually restore its political health. But in the meantime, the stumbling of liberal
democracy weakens the allure of the Western model and its ability to outmatch autocratic alternatives.
...
Today’s world is far more interdependent than the one the first Cold War cleaved in two. The return of geopolitical fracture would therefore do far more damage. In the 20th century, western economies were able to thrive despite minimal economic
intercourse with the Soviet Union. Today, by contrast, China is deeply integrated into international markets. Severing commercial ties between China and the West, should it come to that, would wreak havoc on the global economy. Already, the United States
has taken steps to move select supply chains from China to friendly nations, and to deny China access to high-end technology. This measured economic distancing from China will likely accelerate, becoming a broader economic detachment, if rivalry
continues to mount.

In this interconnected age, major powers need to work across ideological dividing lines not only to manage global commerce but also to address other shared priorities, such as arresting climate change, preventing pandemics and promoting global health,
avoiding nuclear proliferation and arms races, governing the cybersphere, and managing migration. The heating up of great-power rivalry would put out of reach the collective governance needed to tackle these pressing transnational problems."

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