I don't believe this !!!!!!!!!
On Sunday, September 10, 2023 at 7:05:40 AM UTC-4, V wrote:
I don't believe this !!!!!!!!!The China Model is Dead has at least two meanings:
1: Reactively, the model does not work. Failure is inevitable and currently it is dead.
2: Proactively, the Chinese government had abandoned the model. It is currently dead.
On Sunday, September 10, 2023 at 1:04:35 PM UTC-4, ltlee1 wrote:
On Sunday, September 10, 2023 at 7:05:40 AM UTC-4, V wrote:Actually, I cannot tell whether the so called "China Model" is death.
I don't believe this !!!!!!!!!The China Model is Dead has at least two meanings:
1: Reactively, the model does not work. Failure is inevitable and currently it is dead.
2: Proactively, the Chinese government had abandoned the model. It is currently dead.
1. Invest and build to increase economic growth.
2. Borrow if necessary.
3. Repeat 1 and 2 for political necessity.
In some sense, 1 to 3 are necessary steps for any government to develop and/or maintain economic growth.
Of course, state directed borrowing, as well as market directed borrowing could become excessive.
The question is then: Has China over-borrowed?
Many articles appeared in Western media had pronounced that China had over-borrowed. And China's debt per
its GDP is higher than US national debt per US GDP. But most were comparing apples to oranges. That is, they
were comparing China's total debt to US federal government's debt.
More important, an simple indicator was not mentioned at all. All other being equal, the ratio between additional
investment and additional GDP is the best indicator regarding the effectiveness of investment/debt. A ratio of 1 ,
that is one dollar of additional investment/debt would produce one dollar of additional GDP, is better than a ratio
of N>1. On the other hand, if 8 or 9 dollar of investment/debt is required to increase the GDP by one dollar, it is sure
of excessive investment. It could also suggest impending doom such as the Great Recession o 2008.
Don't know to what degree the Chinese government is abandoning the model. But there are signs that the Chinese
government is reshaping its approach.
On Tuesday, September 12, 2023 at 8:53:32 AM UTC-4, ltlee1 wrote:
On Sunday, September 10, 2023 at 1:04:35 PM UTC-4, ltlee1 wrote:
On Sunday, September 10, 2023 at 7:05:40 AM UTC-4, V wrote:Actually, I cannot tell whether the so called "China Model" is death.
I don't believe this !!!!!!!!!The China Model is Dead has at least two meanings:
1: Reactively, the model does not work. Failure is inevitable and currently it is dead.
2: Proactively, the Chinese government had abandoned the model. It is currently dead.
1. Invest and build to increase economic growth.
2. Borrow if necessary.
3. Repeat 1 and 2 for political necessity.
In some sense, 1 to 3 are necessary steps for any government to develop and/or maintain economic growth.
Of course, state directed borrowing, as well as market directed borrowing could become excessive.
The question is then: Has China over-borrowed?
Many articles appeared in Western media had pronounced that China had over-borrowed. And China's debt per
its GDP is higher than US national debt per US GDP. But most were comparing apples to oranges. That is, they
were comparing China's total debt to US federal government's debt.
More important, an simple indicator was not mentioned at all. All other being equal, the ratio between additional
investment and additional GDP is the best indicator regarding the effectiveness of investment/debt. A ratio of 1 ,
that is one dollar of additional investment/debt would produce one dollar of additional GDP, is better than a ratio
of N>1. On the other hand, if 8 or 9 dollar of investment/debt is required to increase the GDP by one dollar, it is sure
of excessive investment. It could also suggest impending doom such as the Great Recession o 2008.
Don't know to what degree the Chinese government is abandoning the model. But there are signs that the ChineseOne is the reform is the Supply Side Structural Reform to curb ineffective/excessive investment and to improve
government is reshaping its approach.
internal demand/consumption: http://www.chinatoday.com.cn/english/spc/2017-07/31/content_747684.htm
"In the past, people’s reflexive response to realizing economic growth is to expand domestic demand, thus
stimulating growth. Now, we need to change our mind and find new and modern means to achieve this: supply-
side structural reform. By improving the supply system, we can emancipate productive forces and improve
competitiveness, thus spurring economic development.
...
IN late 2015, a new term appeared in China’s political and economic field, supply-side structural reform,
which was introduced as a new measure to solve new problems since China’s economy entered its “new
normal.” As China’s middle-income population continues to grow, China has witnessed diversified, personalized,
and upgraded demands. In addition, the upgraded industries are lodging higher demands for productive
services involving R&D, designing, standards, supply chain, marketing networks, and logistics. In comparison,
the supply side has clearly lagged behind China’s demand, with superfluous, invalid low-end supply and insufficient
mid-high supply. What’s more, some existing mechanisms and institutions restrained the supply side from adjustment,
leading to the situation in which production factors cannot conveniently flow to mid- to high-end sectors from low-end
fields, and China’s supply potential of new products and services cannot be unleashed."
The Supply Side Structural Reform is later morphed into the Double Circulation:
https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202007/27/WS5f1e0c65a31083481725c184.html
"Although Xi said in his key speech at a symposium with corporate leaders in Beijing on Tuesday that greater efforts
should be made to spur the vitality of market entities and promote entrepreneurship to leverage the strength of the huge
domestic market in the face of rising protectionism, a sluggish global economy and a weakening international market,
he ruled out the possibility of China closing its doors on other economies. Instead, he said, China will unleash the full
potential of its domestic demand, improve connectivity between the domestic and international markets, and better use
resources and the two markets to propel stronger and sustainable development.
Only when both the domestic and global markets function smoothly can the Chinese economy overcome the multiple
challenges facing it.
...
China has huge room to increase domestic demand. And given its vast land mass, abundant resources and capability to
build a relatively sound industrial chain, China can boost its economy by greatly relying on growing domestic demand.
China has the world's largest and most sound industrial system, strong industrial production capacity, more than 100 million
market players and over 170 million talents with higher education diplomas and/or special skills. More important, it has 1.4
billion consumers including more than 400 million middle-income residents. In addition, its new type of industrialization,
urbanization, agricultural modernization and informatization can support a domestic demand-oriented development model.
But what China is really pursuing is smooth functioning of the economic cycles of both the domestic and global markets
based on the healthy performance of the domestic economy－or a "dual circulation" development pattern that comprises the
optimum exploitation of domestic market resources, and exchanges between the domestic and international one. Which
means China will not shut the door on the world and, instead, it will further open up its economy to the outside world."
On Wednesday, September 13, 2023 at 8:41:42 AM UTC-4, ltlee1 wrote:
On Tuesday, September 12, 2023 at 8:53:32 AM UTC-4, ltlee1 wrote:
On Sunday, September 10, 2023 at 1:04:35 PM UTC-4, ltlee1 wrote:
On Sunday, September 10, 2023 at 7:05:40 AM UTC-4, V wrote:Actually, I cannot tell whether the so called "China Model" is death.
I don't believe this !!!!!!!!!The China Model is Dead has at least two meanings:
1: Reactively, the model does not work. Failure is inevitable and currently it is dead.
2: Proactively, the Chinese government had abandoned the model. It is currently dead.
1. Invest and build to increase economic growth.
2. Borrow if necessary.
3. Repeat 1 and 2 for political necessity.
In some sense, 1 to 3 are necessary steps for any government to develop and/or maintain economic growth.
Of course, state directed borrowing, as well as market directed borrowing could become excessive.
The question is then: Has China over-borrowed?
Many articles appeared in Western media had pronounced that China had over-borrowed. And China's debt per
its GDP is higher than US national debt per US GDP. But most were comparing apples to oranges. That is, they
were comparing China's total debt to US federal government's debt.
More important, an simple indicator was not mentioned at all. All other being equal, the ratio between additional
investment and additional GDP is the best indicator regarding the effectiveness of investment/debt. A ratio of 1 ,
that is one dollar of additional investment/debt would produce one dollar of additional GDP, is better than a ratio
of N>1. On the other hand, if 8 or 9 dollar of investment/debt is required to increase the GDP by one dollar, it is sure
of excessive investment. It could also suggest impending doom such as the Great Recession o 2008.
Don't know to what degree the Chinese government is abandoning the model. But there are signs that the ChineseOne is the reform is the Supply Side Structural Reform to curb ineffective/excessive investment and to improve
government is reshaping its approach.
internal demand/consumption: http://www.chinatoday.com.cn/english/spc/2017-07/31/content_747684.htm
"In the past, people’s reflexive response to realizing economic growth is to expand domestic demand, thus
stimulating growth. Now, we need to change our mind and find new and modern means to achieve this: supply-
side structural reform. By improving the supply system, we can emancipate productive forces and improve
competitiveness, thus spurring economic development.
...
IN late 2015, a new term appeared in China’s political and economic field, supply-side structural reform,
which was introduced as a new measure to solve new problems since China’s economy entered its “new
normal.” As China’s middle-income population continues to grow, China has witnessed diversified, personalized,
and upgraded demands. In addition, the upgraded industries are lodging higher demands for productive
services involving R&D, designing, standards, supply chain, marketing networks, and logistics. In comparison,
the supply side has clearly lagged behind China’s demand, with superfluous, invalid low-end supply and insufficient
mid-high supply. What’s more, some existing mechanisms and institutions restrained the supply side from adjustment,
leading to the situation in which production factors cannot conveniently flow to mid- to high-end sectors from low-end
fields, and China’s supply potential of new products and services cannot be unleashed."
The Supply Side Structural Reform is later morphed into the Double Circulation:
https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202007/27/WS5f1e0c65a31083481725c184.html
"Although Xi said in his key speech at a symposium with corporate leaders in Beijing on Tuesday that greater efforts
should be made to spur the vitality of market entities and promote entrepreneurship to leverage the strength of the huge
domestic market in the face of rising protectionism, a sluggish global economy and a weakening international market,
he ruled out the possibility of China closing its doors on other economies. Instead, he said, China will unleash the full
potential of its domestic demand, improve connectivity between the domestic and international markets, and better use
resources and the two markets to propel stronger and sustainable development.
Only when both the domestic and global markets function smoothly can the Chinese economy overcome the multiple
challenges facing it.
...
China has huge room to increase domestic demand. And given its vast land mass, abundant resources and capability to
build a relatively sound industrial chain, China can boost its economy by greatly relying on growing domestic demand.
China has the world's largest and most sound industrial system, strong industrial production capacity, more than 100 million
market players and over 170 million talents with higher education diplomas and/or special skills. More important, it has 1.4
billion consumers including more than 400 million middle-income residents. In addition, its new type of industrialization,
urbanization, agricultural modernization and informatization can support a domestic demand-oriented development model.
But what China is really pursuing is smooth functioning of the economic cycles of both the domestic and global marketsAnother reform is environmental related represented by the slogan
based on the healthy performance of the domestic economy－or a "dual circulation" development pattern that comprises the
optimum exploitation of domestic market resources, and exchanges between the domestic and international one. Which
means China will not shut the door on the world and, instead, it will further open up its economy to the outside world."
"Clear waters and green mountains are as good as mountains of gold and silver." (綠水青山就是金山銀山)
"Yucun, cradle and model
In a bid to reduce poverty, Yucun pursued economic growth from mining in the 1990s. At its peak in the mid-1990s, the remote
village with a population of only 1,000 people across 280 households boasted an average annual per capita income of 3,000
yuan (434 U.S. dollars), nearly the equivalent of the provincial capital Hangzhou.
However, the source of the prosperity also delivered problems. Bao Xinmin, Party secretary of Yucun, told CGTN, "Mines were like
gold and silver mountains then. [But as a result of heavy mining] our water and mountains became heavily polluted."
In 2003, the village ended its reliance on the "stone economy" and tried to restore the local ecosystem.
In August 2005, the move won the praise of Xi Jinping, then Party secretary of the Zhejiang Provincial Committee of the Communist
Party of China. During a visit to the village, he spoke highly of the local government's efforts to stop mining activities and close
cement factories in order to deal with serious pollution.
"Just now you said that you've made the decision to shut down some mines, which is a wise move. Lucid waters and lush mountains
are invaluable assets," Xi told the local officials at a meeting, according to a video released by China Central Television.
"The green development concept has given a face-lift and resulted in fascinating changes to the village, improving the residents'
income six times," Pan Wenge, former Party secretary of Yucun, told China Daily.
Over the past 15 years, villagers have planted trees on the mountains, turning the scarred slopes green again. Green development has
also been boosted with white tea farms, rural tourism and ecotourism. "
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-08-15/15-years-on-In-China-green-is-new-gold-SmyH5dCEvu/index.html
On Wednesday, September 13, 2023 at 8:41:42 AM UTC-4, ltlee1 wrote:
On Tuesday, September 12, 2023 at 8:53:32 AM UTC-4, ltlee1 wrote:
On Sunday, September 10, 2023 at 1:04:35 PM UTC-4, ltlee1 wrote:
On Sunday, September 10, 2023 at 7:05:40 AM UTC-4, V wrote:Actually, I cannot tell whether the so called "China Model" is death.
I don't believe this !!!!!!!!!The China Model is Dead has at least two meanings:
1: Reactively, the model does not work. Failure is inevitable and currently it is dead.
2: Proactively, the Chinese government had abandoned the model. It is currently dead.
1. Invest and build to increase economic growth.
2. Borrow if necessary.
3. Repeat 1 and 2 for political necessity.
In some sense, 1 to 3 are necessary steps for any government to develop and/or maintain economic growth.
Of course, state directed borrowing, as well as market directed borrowing could become excessive.
The question is then: Has China over-borrowed?
Many articles appeared in Western media had pronounced that China had over-borrowed. And China's debt per
its GDP is higher than US national debt per US GDP. But most were comparing apples to oranges. That is, they
were comparing China's total debt to US federal government's debt.
More important, an simple indicator was not mentioned at all. All other being equal, the ratio between additional
investment and additional GDP is the best indicator regarding the effectiveness of investment/debt. A ratio of 1 ,
that is one dollar of additional investment/debt would produce one dollar of additional GDP, is better than a ratio
of N>1. On the other hand, if 8 or 9 dollar of investment/debt is required to increase the GDP by one dollar, it is sure
of excessive investment. It could also suggest impending doom such as the Great Recession o 2008.
Don't know to what degree the Chinese government is abandoning the model. But there are signs that the ChineseOne is the reform is the Supply Side Structural Reform to curb ineffective/excessive investment and to improve
government is reshaping its approach.
internal demand/consumption: http://www.chinatoday.com.cn/english/spc/2017-07/31/content_747684.htm
"In the past, people’s reflexive response to realizing economic growth is to expand domestic demand, thus
stimulating growth. Now, we need to change our mind and find new and modern means to achieve this: supply-
side structural reform. By improving the supply system, we can emancipate productive forces and improve
competitiveness, thus spurring economic development.
...
IN late 2015, a new term appeared in China’s political and economic field, supply-side structural reform,
which was introduced as a new measure to solve new problems since China’s economy entered its “new
normal.” As China’s middle-income population continues to grow, China has witnessed diversified, personalized,
and upgraded demands. In addition, the upgraded industries are lodging higher demands for productive
services involving R&D, designing, standards, supply chain, marketing networks, and logistics. In comparison,
the supply side has clearly lagged behind China’s demand, with superfluous, invalid low-end supply and insufficient
mid-high supply. What’s more, some existing mechanisms and institutions restrained the supply side from adjustment,
leading to the situation in which production factors cannot conveniently flow to mid- to high-end sectors from low-end
fields, and China’s supply potential of new products and services cannot be unleashed."
The Supply Side Structural Reform is later morphed into the Double Circulation:
https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202007/27/WS5f1e0c65a31083481725c184.html
"Although Xi said in his key speech at a symposium with corporate leaders in Beijing on Tuesday that greater efforts
should be made to spur the vitality of market entities and promote entrepreneurship to leverage the strength of the huge
domestic market in the face of rising protectionism, a sluggish global economy and a weakening international market,
he ruled out the possibility of China closing its doors on other economies. Instead, he said, China will unleash the full
potential of its domestic demand, improve connectivity between the domestic and international markets, and better use
resources and the two markets to propel stronger and sustainable development.
Only when both the domestic and global markets function smoothly can the Chinese economy overcome the multiple
challenges facing it.
...
China has huge room to increase domestic demand. And given its vast land mass, abundant resources and capability to
build a relatively sound industrial chain, China can boost its economy by greatly relying on growing domestic demand.
China has the world's largest and most sound industrial system, strong industrial production capacity, more than 100 million
market players and over 170 million talents with higher education diplomas and/or special skills. More important, it has 1.4
billion consumers including more than 400 million middle-income residents. In addition, its new type of industrialization,
urbanization, agricultural modernization and informatization can support a domestic demand-oriented development model.
But what China is really pursuing is smooth functioning of the economic cycles of both the domestic and global marketsAnother reform is environmental related represented by the slogan
based on the healthy performance of the domestic economy－or a "dual circulation" development pattern that comprises the
optimum exploitation of domestic market resources, and exchanges between the domestic and international one. Which
means China will not shut the door on the world and, instead, it will further open up its economy to the outside world."
"Clear waters and green mountains are as good as mountains of gold and silver." (綠水青山就是金山銀山)
"Yucun, cradle and model
In a bid to reduce poverty, Yucun pursued economic growth from mining in the 1990s. At its peak in the mid-1990s, the remote
village with a population of only 1,000 people across 280 households boasted an average annual per capita income of 3,000
yuan (434 U.S. dollars), nearly the equivalent of the provincial capital Hangzhou.
However, the source of the prosperity also delivered problems. Bao Xinmin, Party secretary of Yucun, told CGTN, "Mines were like
gold and silver mountains then. [But as a result of heavy mining] our water and mountains became heavily polluted."
In 2003, the village ended its reliance on the "stone economy" and tried to restore the local ecosystem.
In August 2005, the move won the praise of Xi Jinping, then Party secretary of the Zhejiang Provincial Committee of the Communist
Party of China. During a visit to the village, he spoke highly of the local government's efforts to stop mining activities and close
cement factories in order to deal with serious pollution.
"Just now you said that you've made the decision to shut down some mines, which is a wise move. Lucid waters and lush mountains
are invaluable assets," Xi told the local officials at a meeting, according to a video released by China Central Television.
"The green development concept has given a face-lift and resulted in fascinating changes to the village, improving the residents'
income six times," Pan Wenge, former Party secretary of Yucun, told China Daily.
Over the past 15 years, villagers have planted trees on the mountains, turning the scarred slopes green again. Green development has
also been boosted with white tea farms, rural tourism and ecotourism. "
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-08-15/15-years-on-In-China-green-is-new-gold-SmyH5dCEvu/index.html
On Sunday, September 10, 2023 at 1:04:35 PM UTC-4, ltlee1 wrote:
On Sunday, September 10, 2023 at 7:05:40 AM UTC-4, V wrote:Actually, I cannot tell whether the so called "China Model" is death.
I don't believe this !!!!!!!!!The China Model is Dead has at least two meanings:
1: Reactively, the model does not work. Failure is inevitable and currently it is dead.
2: Proactively, the Chinese government had abandoned the model. It is currently dead.
1. Invest and build to increase economic growth.
2. Borrow if necessary.
3. Repeat 1 and 2 for political necessity.
In some sense, 1 to 3 are necessary steps for any government to develop and/or maintain economic growth.
Of course, state directed borrowing, as well as market directed borrowing could become excessive.
The question is then: Has China over-borrowed?
Many articles appeared in Western media had pronounced that China had over-borrowed. And China's debt per
its GDP is higher than US national debt per US GDP. But most were comparing apples to oranges. That is, they
were comparing China's total debt to US federal government's debt.
More important, an simple indicator was not mentioned at all. All other being equal, the ratio between additional
investment and additional GDP is the best indicator regarding the effectiveness of investment/debt. A ratio of 1 ,
that is one dollar of additional investment/debt would produce one dollar of additional GDP, is better than a ratio
of N>1. On the other hand, if 8 or 9 dollar of investment/debt is required to increase the GDP by one dollar, it is sure
of excessive investment. It could also suggest impending doom such as the Great Recession o 2008.
Don't know to what degree the Chinese government is abandoning the model. But there are signs that the Chinese
government is reshaping its approach.
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