"THREE MAIN DRIVERS
...
Firstly, there was a fourfold population explosion between 1700 and 1840. This resulted in reduced land per capita and caused an impoverishment of the rural populace.

Secondly, this led to increased competition for elite positions. While the number of contenders soared, the number of awarded highest academic degrees declined, reaching its nadir in 1796. Because such a degree was necessary for obtaining a position in
the powerful Chinese bureaucracy, this mismatch between the number of positions and those desiring them created a large pool of disgruntled elite aspirants. The leaders of the Taiping Rebellion, perhaps the bloodiest civil war in human history, were all
such failed elite-wannabes.

Thirdly, the state's financial burden escalated due to rising costs associated with suppressing unrest, declining per capita productivity, and mounting trade deficits stemming from depleting silver reserves and opium imports.

Collectively, these factors culminated in a series of uprisings that heralded the end of the Qing Dynasty and exacted a heavy toll in terms of Chinese lives lost.
...
NO CRYSTAL BALLS

"We aren't prophets. Our primary aim is to comprehend social dynamics, which we can then leverage for making forecasts," elucidates Orlandi. The effectiveness of this endeavor using the Structural Demographic Theory (SDT), a method co-developed by Peter
Turchin that represents societies as complex interactive systems, has been demonstrated by researchers on multiple occasions. For instance, a study published in 2010 forecasted the 2020 instability in the USA."

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2023/09/230904104620.htm

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