"Ukraine’s much-anticipated summer counteroffensive has all but ground to a halt.gamechanger. The “fighter jet coalition” has pledged F-16s, but it’s unclear when and where these will be deployed. In any case, they would be outmatched against an increasingly active and confident Russian Air Force and Russia’s formidable
...
Western arms deliveries offer little relief. Most of the pledged main battle tanks are already in the theater, and there is limited prospect for further deliveries. Reaching for antiques like the German Leopard 1, first introduced in 1965, won’t be a
Given this grim outlook, is a “Korea Scenario” the most likely outcome? This means that by the time the Ukrainian counteroffensive culminates sometime in late August or early September, the conflict freezes at territorial borders roughlycorresponding to the frontline. In effect, Ukraine trades significant parts of the four regions annexed by Russia in 2022 for robust Western (American) security guarantees.
This certainly wouldn’t be the worst outcome from an American perspective. Washington would be able to gradually defuse tensions with Moscow and reestablish a dialogue on the future trajectory of the European security architecture."
https://nationalinterest.org/feature/case-american-led-peace-ukraine-206732
On Wednesday, August 23, 2023 at 4:01:48 PM UTC-4, ltlee1 wrote:a gamechanger. The “fighter jet coalition” has pledged F-16s, but it’s unclear when and where these will be deployed. In any case, they would be outmatched against an increasingly active and confident Russian Air Force and Russia’s formidable
"Ukraine’s much-anticipated summer counteroffensive has all but ground to a halt.
...
Western arms deliveries offer little relief. Most of the pledged main battle tanks are already in the theater, and there is limited prospect for further deliveries. Reaching for antiques like the German Leopard 1, first introduced in 1965, won’t be
corresponding to the frontline. In effect, Ukraine trades significant parts of the four regions annexed by Russia in 2022 for robust Western (American) security guarantees.Given this grim outlook, is a “Korea Scenario” the most likely outcome? This means that by the time the Ukrainian counteroffensive culminates sometime in late August or early September, the conflict freezes at territorial borders roughly
This certainly wouldn’t be the worst outcome from an American perspective. Washington would be able to gradually defuse tensions with Moscow and reestablish a dialogue on the future trajectory of the European security architecture."Look like White House wants to continue. But a group of former US officials want to end the war.
https://nationalinterest.org/feature/case-american-led-peace-ukraine-206732
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/former-us-officials-secret-ukraine-talks-russians-war-ukraine-rcna92610
"A group of former senior U.S. national security officials has held secret talks with prominent Russians
believed to be close to the Kremlin — and, in at least one case, with the country’s top diplomat — with
the aim of laying the groundwork for negotiations to end the war in Ukraine, half a dozen people briefed
on the discussions said.
In a high-level example of the back-channel diplomacy taking place behind the scenes, Russian Foreign
Affairs Minister Sergey Lavrov met with members of the group for several hours in April in New York, four
former officials and two current officials said.
On the agenda were some of the thorniest issues in the war in Ukraine, like the fate of Russian-held territory
that Ukraine may never be able to liberate and the search for an elusive diplomatic off-ramp that could be
tolerable to both sides.
Meeting with Lavrov were Richard Haass, a former diplomat and the outgoing president of the Council on
Foreign Relations, current and former officials said. The group was joined by Europe expert Charles
Kupchan and Russia expert Thomas Graham, both former White House and State Department officials
who are Council on Foreign Relations fellows. "
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