XPost: soc.culture.south-africa, za.misc, za.politics
XPost: talk.politics.misc

Who wants to be a president? A dummy’s guide to the 2017 ANC
leadership race

Ranjeni Munusamy South Africa 26 Apr 2017 01:49 (South Africa)

President Jacob Zuma is perturbed that so many people are competing
for his job as ANC leader. “Where have you ever seen a situation where
all of us want to become president?”, Zuma asked at an ANC event at Empangeni, KwaZulu-Natal at the weekend. He claimed this was due to
foreign forces trying to take control of the ANC. There is a rather
crowded field at present, though this is probably due to the multiple
factions at play. It could also be a sign of healthy competition in
the ANC. So who are the players and how do they line up? By RANJENI
MUNUSAMY.

In 2007, a new phenomenon emerged in the ANC when competing factions
went head to head for control of the party. For the first time in the
ANC’s history, factions competed for the top six positions through
slates. This led to the Zuma faction triumphing over former president
Thabo Mbeki’s faction as delegates at the Polokwane conference voted
along similar patterns for all six positions.

The slates were less pronounced at the 2012 Mangaung conference, with
the “Forces for Change” – as the anti-Zuma camp was known then –
unable to secure a fixed slate under the presidential contender
Kgalema Motlanthe. But voting patterns were along factional lines for
the top six and national executive committee (NEC) positions resulting
in a walkover for the dominant Zuma camp.

The situation is a lot more complicated this year. There is now a
proliferation of factions and, with eight months to go to the national conference, the race is wide open. A number of senior ANC leaders are
either raising their hands or responding to approaches from party
structures to make a play for the top post.

Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma:

She is Zuma’s favoured candidate to succeed him and was first out the starting blocks when the ANC Women’s League announced in January they
would be campaigning for her to be the first women leader. She is also
backed by the dominant faction in KwaZulu-Natal, as well as the ANC
Youth League in KwaZulu-Natal. But Dlamini-Zuma’s campaign is running
into trouble with what is known as the “premier league” faction that
has been in Zuma’s corner, as she is apparently unwilling to consider Mpumalanga Premier David Mabuza as her running mate and Free State
Premier Ace Magashule for the position of secretary general on her
slate. Mabuza and Magashule are the ANC chairpersons in their
provinces.

There is in fact confusion amongst Zuma’s supporters about who
Dlamini-Zuma is willing to work with. KwaZulu-Natal provincial
chairperson Sihle Zikalala is said to have trouble selling a “unity
slate” that has Dlamini-Zuma at the top of the ticket. Her speeches
and campaign messaging has been extremely poor. Although she is
campaigning on a gender ticket, she has not said anything of substance
about how her presidency will benefit the lot of women in the ANC and
the country. What counts in Dlamini-Zuma’s favour is that she has the
backing of her former husband and his benefactors. For now. She is
viewed as a Trojan horse for Zuma, his friends and family to remain in
control of the ANC and the state.

Cyril Ramaphosa:

The Deputy President’s campaign has been ignited by his speech in
Uitenhage that set him up as the candidate who would challenge and
expose the Zuma-Gupta throttlehold on the state and its institutions.
By campaigning on an anti-corruption, anti-state capture ticket, he
could have constituencies in society rallying behind him. He already
has the support of Cosatu and the South African Communist Party
(SACP). But what counts are ANC structures that would send voting
delegates to the elective conference. Ramaphosa has a hard slog ahead
to rustle up support in the provinces as he does not have a defined constituency. In order to be the “anti-corruption” candidate that can
set the ANC on the path of rehabilitation, he has to fight a clean
campaign – which might not be possible in an organisation contaminated
by patronage and vote buying.

Baleka Mbete:

Mbete tried to get her campaign off the ground in January by
announcing that she had been “approached by many” ANC structures to
run for the presidency. She confirmed to the Sunday Times that she
would run “after agonising for a long time”. But after the ANC placed
a moratorium on campaigning, Mbete’s campaign seems to have spluttered
to a halt. She had hoped that Zuma would back her, after he had said
that it was time for a woman president. But with Zuma firmly behind
his ex-wife, Mbete’s campaign appears to be doomed. He track record as Speaker of the National Assembly makes her a hard sell and other
players who had initially considered being on her slate realise that
she is dead wood.

Zweli Mkhize:

For some time, Mkhize was the person Zuma trusted with his personal
and political affairs. He played a central role in convincing Zuma to
remove Des van Rooyen as finance minister and replacing him with
Pravin Gordhan in December 2015 after Nhlanhla Nene was fired. Mkhize
had a chance of being Zuma’s endorsed candidate. He was also seen a
possible compromise candidate who could straddle the pro- and
anti-Zuma camps. But his relationship became strained when he began
speaking against the police harassment of Gordhan. Mkhize’s support in KwaZulu-Natal has also been shaky.

The final break with Zuma came when he, Ramaphosa and secretary
general Gwede Mantashe opposed Zuma decision to fire Gordhan and
Mcebisi Jonas on the basis of a bogus intelligence report. Mkhize was
booed by ANC supporters at Ahmed Kathrada’s memorial service in
Durban, and the ANC Youth League in the province has refused to
apologise for this. He can therefore no longer count on his province, KwaZulu-Natal, consolidating behind him. He stands a better chance of
securing another top six position on the Ramaphosa slate – perhaps
secretary general.

Lindiwe Sisulu:

Sisulu is a late player in the game but appears to have strong pockets
of support. There are unconfirmed reports that half a million t-shirts
with her campaign branding has been produced and being distributed –
without her involvement. The Sisulu dynasty is a big plus and she is
so far the only woman candidate in the anti-Zuma camp. She is
allegedly facing threats for her stance and this could prove dangerous
for her campaigners. Her best chance of success is probably to join
forces with the Ramaphosa campaign.

Jeff Radebe:

Radebe has been in Cabinet since the Mandela administration but has
not really been a star performer. His greatest achievement is not
being involved in any major scandals. He is clearly out of favour with
Zuma, having distanced himself from the president’s controversies,
including the firing of Nene. As head of policy in the ANC and his
seniority in government, Radebe is in line for a senior leadership
position. He has certainly been patiently waiting for one. Radebe is
not aligned to any of the factions and other than some party veterans,
he does not seem to have widespread support for a top position.

Gwede Mantashe:

The one person most unlikely to be elected ANC president is Gwede
Mantashe. Although he appeared to be favoured by some Eastern Cape
structures, it seems unlikely that a campaign could take shape now.
Mantashe appears to be fed up with the skirmishes with Zuma and his
camp. He constantly annoys structures, including his traditional
constituency in Cosatu and the SACP, by lecturing them about what they
ought to be doing and not doing. He denounces the practice of slates
but his name regularly features on them. He was mentioned as a
possible deputy to Ramaphosa but apparently favours the position of
national chairperson.

Matthews Phosa:

He has been trying to compete for a senior leadership position since
1997. At that year’s conference in Mafikeng, he tried unsuccessfully
to run against Zuma for the position of deputy president. He made it
to the top six in 2007 by joining the Zuma slate as treasurer general
but the relationship could not stick. In 2012 he thought he had a shot
at the deputy presidency again. Ramaphosa received 3018 votes while
Phosa received 470 votes. The third candidate in the race Tokyo
Sexwale received 463 votes. Sexwale has packed in his ambitions but
Phosa remains a perennial candidate, this time for the presidency. He
has been outspoken on corruption and the decline of the ANC but does
not appear to have any significant support in the party. His chief
campaigner is “poo protestor” and leader of the Ses’khona People’s Movement, Andile Lili.

Tito Mboweni:

The former Reserve Bank Governor is an outspoken member of the NEC and
a keen tweeter. That is as much as he has going for him. He, like
several other people, has been courted by party veterans to run for
high office. He is seen to be close to Mbeki and is credited to be
part of the team of people who ensured the best performance of the
economy during their time in the driving seat. He does not have any constituency to speak of but does have 177,000 followers on Twitter
and hip hop artist Casper Nyovest released a single called “Tito
Mboweni” last month.

The secondary players:

David Mabuza wants to be deputy president – to whoever will have him.
He has been trying to unify his province behind his candidacy and is
trying to shake off the premier league tag. He has been reaching out
to people from other factions to ensure that he is in a strong
bargaining position to make deals with other provinces to trade off
other positions in the top six and the NEC.

Ace Magashule is the longest serving provincial chairperson and
believes it is time to leave the Free State for a national post. He is
haunted by controversy and scandal but that does not appear to get in
the way of his ambitions. He is up for whatever top six post he can
secure.

Paul Mashatile made an unsuccessful attempt to secure the position of
national treasurer in Mangaung but lost to Mkhize. The Gauteng
province believes that he needs to be in a top six position but some
other players and strategists believe that his provincial deputy David
Makhura stands a better chance of securing the position of secretary
general. Mashatile’s strength is that he is outspoken and a dealmaker. However, he was badly burnt at Mangaung and unless he plays his cards
properly, could end up paying the price again.

Senzo Mchunu: The former provincial chairperson of KwaZulu-Natal could
make a comeback on an anti-Zuma slate. He has strong support in the
losing faction in KwaZulu-Natal and is favoured by some national
leaders as a potential candidate for the position of secretary general
or deputy secretary general. He could emerge as a significant player
this year because for the first time KwaZulu-Natal, the biggest
province, is not united around candidates for the top six or the NEC.

Nathi Mthethwa: He is apparently the new Zweli Mkhize – enjoying
favour and the trust of the president. His name has been mentioned on
the Dlamini-Zuma slate for one of the top six positions. Zuma needs a
hatchet man in Luthuli House and Mthethwa appears to be it.

The Outside Candidate: Jacob Zuma.

Yes, he could technically be re-elected as ANC president.

Enough said. DM

https://t.co/x0IAexTM1A
--
Steve Hayes
http://www.khanya.org.za/stevesig.htm
http://khanya.wordpress.com

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)